{"id":40962,"date":"2022-04-13T09:31:34","date_gmt":"2022-04-13T07:31:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/?p=40962"},"modified":"2025-05-12T08:37:42","modified_gmt":"2025-05-12T06:37:42","slug":"novo-nordisk-update-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/novo-nordisk-update-3\/","title":{"rendered":"Novo Nordisk \u2013 update 2022"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Jeg har tidligere skrevet analyser af <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/aktier\/kurser\/novo-nordisk-b-novo-b-xcse\">Novo Nordisk<\/a> her p\u00e5 Nordnets blog, b\u00e5de i september 2019 (kurs 358 kr.) og i april 2021 (kurs 452 kr.). I begge analyser vurderede jeg, at aktien var rimeligt prissat og havde et godt stigningspotentiale i et business as usual-scenarie. Siden er kursen steget til 826 kr. Hvordan er udsigterne i dag?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"940\" height=\"327\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/01\/Thorleif_Jackson.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-38731\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/01\/Thorleif_Jackson.png 940w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/01\/Thorleif_Jackson-620x216.png 620w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/01\/Thorleif_Jackson-150x52.png 150w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/01\/Thorleif_Jackson-768x267.png 768w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/01\/Thorleif_Jackson-500x174.png 500w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/01\/Thorleif_Jackson-800x278.png 800w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/01\/Thorleif_Jackson-370x129.png 370w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/01\/Thorleif_Jackson-270x94.png 270w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/01\/Thorleif_Jackson-570x198.png 570w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/01\/Thorleif_Jackson-740x257.png 740w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 940px) 100vw, 940px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Blogindl\u00e6gget er skrevet af Thorleif Jackson, analytiker i Jackson FamilieInvest<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Novo Nordisk er Danmarks mest v\u00e6rdifulde b\u00f8rsselskab med en b\u00f8rsv\u00e6rdi p\u00e5 omkring 1.700 milliarder kroner. Selskabet er et resultat af en fusion mellem Nordisk Gentofte og Novo Industri i 1989. Siden fusionen har Novo Nordisk \u00f8get indtjeningen pr. aktie (EPS) hvert eneste \u00e5r. I grafen nedenfor kan du se indtjeningens udvikling \u00e5r for \u00e5r. Bem\u00e6rk, at grafen er logaritmisk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"704\" height=\"269\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/04\/NovoNordisk1_2022.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-40963\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/04\/NovoNordisk1_2022.png 704w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/04\/NovoNordisk1_2022-620x237.png 620w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/04\/NovoNordisk1_2022-150x57.png 150w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/04\/NovoNordisk1_2022-500x191.png 500w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/04\/NovoNordisk1_2022-370x141.png 370w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/04\/NovoNordisk1_2022-270x103.png 270w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/04\/NovoNordisk1_2022-570x218.png 570w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 704px) 100vw, 704px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Kilde: Egen tilvirkning.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>De seneste 31 \u00e5r, fra 1990 til 2021, er indtjeningen pr. aktie (EPS udvandet) \u00f8get fra 0,25 kr. til 20,74 kr. svarende til gennemsnitlig v\u00e6kst p\u00e5 15,3% p.a. Reelt har v\u00e6ksten v\u00e6ret endnu h\u00f8jere, da <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/aktier\/kurser\/novonesis-novozymes-b-nsis-b-xcse\">Novozymes<\/a> blev udskilt i 2001. Du kan se indtjeningsv\u00e6ksten \u00e5r for \u00e5r nedenfor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"605\" height=\"202\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/04\/NovoNordisk2-2022.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-40981\" style=\"width:704px;height:269px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/04\/NovoNordisk2-2022.png 605w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/04\/NovoNordisk2-2022-150x50.png 150w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/04\/NovoNordisk2-2022-500x167.png 500w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/04\/NovoNordisk2-2022-370x124.png 370w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/04\/NovoNordisk2-2022-270x90.png 270w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/04\/NovoNordisk2-2022-570x190.png 570w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 605px) 100vw, 605px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Kilde: Egen tilvirkning.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Novo Nordisks indtjening er ofte kraftigt p\u00e5virket af svingninger i valutakurser. Det f\u00e6nomen kan forklare, hvordan indtjeningsv\u00e6ksten har varieret voldsomt mellem 1% i 1999 og 38% i 2010. Indtjeningen er ogs\u00e5 p\u00e5virket af engangsposter, men disse er typisk ikke specielt store for Novo Nordisk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Som det fremg\u00e5r af grafen ovenfor, var EPS-v\u00e6ksten kun omkring 3% i 2017, 2018 og 2019. V\u00e6ksten steg til 10,1% i 2020 og 14,9% i 2021. I de kommende tre \u00e5r forventes gennemsnitlig v\u00e6kst p\u00e5 13,5%. Det tilsvarende tal (v\u00e6kstforventning) var 9,8% i april 2021 og 9,1% i september 2019. Forventningerne til den fremtidige v\u00e6kst er alts\u00e5 steget i takt med, at v\u00e6ksten er steget i 2020 og 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"685\" height=\"341\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/04\/NovoNordisk3_2022.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-40965\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/04\/NovoNordisk3_2022.png 685w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/04\/NovoNordisk3_2022-620x309.png 620w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/04\/NovoNordisk3_2022-150x75.png 150w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/04\/NovoNordisk3_2022-500x249.png 500w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/04\/NovoNordisk3_2022-370x184.png 370w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/04\/NovoNordisk3_2022-270x134.png 270w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/04\/NovoNordisk3_2022-570x284.png 570w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 685px) 100vw, 685px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Kilde: Egen tilvirkning.<\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Den lave v\u00e6kst i 2017, 2018 og 2019 skyldtes bl.a. udfordringer i USA, hvor priserne var under h\u00e5rdt pres. Udsigten til lavere v\u00e6kst i 2017 og frem fik aktiekursen til at falde voldsomt i 2016. Aktiekursen faldt s\u00e5ledes 40% fra over 400 kr. til ca. 240 kr. Priss\u00e6tningen faldt ogs\u00e5 fra Price\/Earnings-multipler over 30 til PE-multipler lige under 17. Siden bunden omkring 240 kr. i november 2016 og marts 2017 har kursen rettet sig til 826 kr. den 11. april 2022. Med den aktuelle kurs (826 kr.) er Novo Nordisk prissat svarende til P\/E<sub>2021<\/sub>=39,9 og P\/E<sub>2021<\/sub>=37,0. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Novo Nordisk er dermed markant h\u00f8jere prissat end p\u00e5 toppen i 2015. Faktisk har Novo Nordisk kun en gang tidligere v\u00e6ret tiln\u00e6rmelsesvis s\u00e5 h\u00f8jt prissat. Det var i januar 2001, hvor Novo Nordisk handlede til P\/E<sub>2000<\/sub>=38. Se nedenst\u00e5ende graf.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"673\" height=\"285\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/04\/NovoNordisk4_2022.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-40966\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/04\/NovoNordisk4_2022.png 673w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/04\/NovoNordisk4_2022-620x263.png 620w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/04\/NovoNordisk4_2022-150x64.png 150w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/04\/NovoNordisk4_2022-500x212.png 500w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/04\/NovoNordisk4_2022-370x157.png 370w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/04\/NovoNordisk4_2022-270x114.png 270w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/04\/NovoNordisk4_2022-570x241.png 570w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 673px) 100vw, 673px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Kilde: Egen tilvirkning.<\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Som det fremg\u00e5r af grafen, har Novo Nordisk siden 1991 handlet inden for en kurskanal p\u00e5 P\/E=17-30 det meste af tiden. De f\u00e5 gange, hvor kursen er brudt igennem den \u00f8vre afgr\u00e6nsning i 2000 og 2015, er kursen efterf\u00f8lgende faldet 40-50% inden for 1-2 \u00e5r. Nu er Novo Nordisk igen brudt igennem den \u00f8vre afgr\u00e6nsning af kanalen. Sp\u00f8rgsm\u00e5let er, om historien vil gentage sig, og om vi vil se store kursfald de n\u00e6ste 1-2 \u00e5r?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hvis indtjeningen udvikler sig som forventet af markedet, og hvis multiplen falder fra P\/E=40 i dag til P\/E=30 i december 2024, b\u00f8r kursen stige fra 826 kr. til ca. 909 kr. i december 2024, som indikeret p\u00e5 en af graferne. Det giver et beskedent kurspotentiale p\u00e5 10% eller 3,5% p.a. i et forholdsvis positivt scenarie. Jeg ved ikke, om markedets forventninger er realistiske, og multiplen kan meget vel falde en del mere. Hvis multiplen eksempelvis falder til P\/E=17 i december 2024, vil aktiekursen falde hele 38% fra 826 kr. i dag til kurs 515 kr., forudsat at indtjeningen udvikler sig som forventet. Hvis indtjeningen skuffer, vil kursen falde endnu mere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hvis man tror, at markedets forventninger er realistiske, og man tror, at Novo Nordisk handles inden for kurskanalen i december 2024, kan man alts\u00e5 forvente en flad til faldende kursudvikling i de kommende \u00e5r. Dette er hverken en k\u00f8bsanbefaling eller en salgsanbefaling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"hvad-tror-du\">Hvad tror du?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Hvad mener du om Novo Nordisks priss\u00e6tning? Hvilken PE-multipel fortjener Novo Nordisk? Tror du, markedets forventninger er realistiske? Tror du, Novo Nordisk handles inden for kurskanalen p\u00e5 P\/E=17-30 i december 2024? Hvordan vurderer du aktiens potentiale?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Disclaimer. Thorleif Jackson ejer <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/aktier\/kurser\">aktier<\/a> i Novo Nordisk.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Ovenst\u00e5ende er ikke en anbefaling til at k\u00f8be eller s\u00e6lge v\u00e6rdipapirer<\/em>. <em>Dette blogindl\u00e6g er udarbejdet til informationsform\u00e5l og er et udtryk for skribentens personlige holdning. Blogindl\u00e6gget udg\u00f8r s\u00e5ledes ikke investeringsm\u00e6ssig eller anden r\u00e5dgivning. Historiske afkast er ikke en garanti for fremtidige afkast.<\/em> <em><em>Finansielle instrumenter kan b\u00e5de stige og falde i v\u00e6rdi. Der er en risiko for, at du ikke f\u00e5r de investerede penge tilbage.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Thorleif Jackson har tidligere skrevet analyser af Novo Nordisk p\u00e5 Nordnets blog. Nu er han klar med en opdateret historisk analyse \u2013 for hvordan er udsigterne i dag? <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40009,"featured_media":40970,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1291],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40962","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/04\/Laboratorie_1200x430-150x54.jpg","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/04\/Laboratorie_1200x430-150x54.jpg 150w, 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