{"id":49741,"date":"2023-02-14T10:27:17","date_gmt":"2023-02-14T09:27:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/?p=49741"},"modified":"2025-10-20T14:47:45","modified_gmt":"2025-10-20T12:47:45","slug":"thorleif-jackson-er-coloplast-danmarks-bedste-aktie","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/thorleif-jackson-er-coloplast-danmarks-bedste-aktie\/","title":{"rendered":"Thorleif Jackson: Er Coloplast Danmarks bedste aktie?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Hvilken aktie er Danmarks bedste? M\u00e5lt p\u00e5 den l\u00e6ngste r\u00e6kke rekordresultater tager Coloplast<\/a> nok prisen med bundlinjev\u00e6kst hvert \u00e5r siden 1981, hvis man ser bort fra engangsposter. Udbytterne er ogs\u00e5 h\u00e6vet eller fastholdt hvert \u00e5r siden b\u00f8rsnoteringen i 1983, og aktiekursen er 180-doblet siden september 1988. Jeg vil her se n\u00e6rmere p\u00e5 Coloplast og aktiens mulige udvikling fremover.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Coloplast blev grundlagt af Aage og Johanne Louis-Hansen i 1957. Forretningsgrundlaget var fra starten masseproduktion af engangsartikler til stomipatienter. De moderne og brugervenlige produkter blev en stor succes. I 1979 fulgte engangsartikler til inkontinenspatienter, og i 1982 blev bandager til v\u00e5d s\u00e5rpleje f\u00f8jet til sortimentet. Coloplast blev noteret p\u00e5 fondsb\u00f8rsen i 1983 og har ikke hentet penge hos aktion\u00e6rerne siden. Louis-Hansen-familien ejer fortsat ca. 28% af aktierne og kontrollerer ca. 66% af stemmerne. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Coloplasts oms\u00e6tning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Oms\u00e6tningen er 110-doblet fra 205 mio. kroner i 1982\/83 til 22.579 mio. kroner i 2021\/22, svarende til gennemsnitlig v\u00e6kst p\u00e5 12,8% p.a. De seneste 30 \u00e5r er oms\u00e6tningen vokset fra 1,12 mia. kroner til 22,58 mia. kroner, svarende til gennemsnitlig v\u00e6kst p\u00e5 10,5% p.a. Og de seneste 10 \u00e5r er oms\u00e6tningen vokset fra 10,92 mia. kroner til 22,58 mia. kroner, svarende til gennemsnitlig v\u00e6kst p\u00e5 7,5% p.a. V\u00e6ksten er alts\u00e5 faldet i takt med, at oms\u00e6tningen er steget.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kilde: Egen tilvirkning<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markedet forventer pt., at oms\u00e6tningen vokser til 28,9 mia. kroner i 2024\/25, svarende til fornyet v\u00e6kst p\u00e5 8,5% p.a. Markedets forventninger virker umiddelbart lidt anstrengte i forhold til den historiske v\u00e6kst p\u00e5 7,5% de seneste 10 \u00e5r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Coloplasts indtjening<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Coloplasts indtjening efter skat er 224-doblet fra 21 mio. kroner i 1982\/83 til 4.706 mio. kroner i 2021\/22. Bundlinjen er vokset hurtigere end toplinjen, fordi resultatgraden er vokset fra 10,2% i 1982\/83 til 20,8% i 2021\/22. Grafen nedenfor viser udviklingen i Coloplasts justerede EBIT-overskudsgrad siden 1988:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kilde: Egen tilvirkning<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Som det fremg\u00e5r, er Coloplasts overskudsgrad steget fra et niveau p\u00e5 ca. 14,3% i perioden 1988 til 2008 til et nyt niveau p\u00e5 ca. 32,0% de seneste 10 \u00e5r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Coloplasts indtjening pr. aktie (EPS) er vokset fra 0,51 kroner i 1991\/92 til 22,11 kroner i 2021\/22, svarende til gennemsnitlig v\u00e6kst p\u00e5 13,4% over 30 \u00e5r. De seneste 10 \u00e5r er EPS \u00f8get fra 9,50 kroner til 22,11 kroner, svarende til gennemsnitlig v\u00e6kst p\u00e5 8,8% p.a. Se nedenst\u00e5ende graf:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kilde: Egen tilvirkning<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markedet forventer pt., at EPS vokser til 31,3 kroner i 2024\/25, svarende til fornyet v\u00e6kst p\u00e5 12,3% p.a. Markedets forventninger virker umiddelbart lidt anstrengte i forhold til den historiske v\u00e6kst p\u00e5 8,8% de seneste 10 \u00e5r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Coloplasts aktiekurs<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Coloplasts aktion\u00e6rer har haft stor gl\u00e6de af selskabets fantastiske forretningsm\u00e6ssige udvikling. Aktiekursen er s\u00e5ledes 180-doblet fra 4,6 kr. i september 1988 til 827 kroner i februar 2023, svarende til et gennemsnitligt afkast p\u00e5 16,3% p.a. Udbytteafkastet har i gennemsnit v\u00e6ret 1,5%, s\u00e5 totaludbyttet har v\u00e6ret ca. 17,8% p.a. Se nedenst\u00e5ende graf:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kilde: Egen tilvirkning<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Coloplast-aktien har siden 1988 holdt sig indenfor en kurskanal p\u00e5 P\/E=15-30 det meste af tiden. De seneste 5-6 \u00e5r har aktien dog handlet h\u00f8jere end P\/E=30. Sp\u00f8rgsm\u00e5let er: Vil Coloplast fremover handle h\u00f8jere end P\/E=30, eller vil aktien falde tilbage og igen handle i intervallet P\/E=15-30?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hvis man antager, at priss\u00e6tningen falder til P\/E=25 i september 2025, b\u00f8r aktiekursen falde en smule fra 827 kroner til 790 kroner som skitseret p\u00e5 grafen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hvad mener du?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Med lidt anstrengte forventninger til b\u00e5de oms\u00e6tning og indtjening, en relativt h\u00f8j overskudsgrad og en relativ h\u00f8j priss\u00e6tning har jeg ikke selv lyst til at eje Coloplast-aktien i de kommende \u00e5r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hvad mener du om ovenst\u00e5ende analyse? Er Coloplast Danmarks bedste aktie? Ligner Coloplast en god investering<\/a> i februar 2023?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dette er ikke en k\u00f8bsanbefaling eller en salgsanbefaling. Forfatteren tager intet ansvar for l\u00e6serens evt. tab eller gevinst ved handel med Coloplast-aktien.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
G\u00e5 til alle danske aktier<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n


Disclaimer: Thorleif Jackson ejer ikke selv aktier i Coloplast.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dette materiale er udarbejdet af Thorleif Jackson og indeholder information, der kan anses for at v\u00e6re en investeringsanbefaling i henhold til Markedsmisbrugsforordningen (Europa-Parlamentets og R\u00e5dets forordning 596\/2014), dvs. information som anbefaler eller foresl\u00e5r en investeringsstrategi. Nordnet Bank, filial af Nordnet Bank AB, Sverige (Nordnet), har ikke deltaget i udarbejdelsen, gennemg\u00e5et eller foretaget \u00e6ndringer i materialet. Thorleif Jackson har ansvaret for materialets indhold,og at det lever op til g\u00e6ldende lovgivning og regler.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Materialet har ikke v\u00e6ret forelagt de omtalte selskaber.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dette materiale blev offentliggjort f\u00f8rste gang den 14. februar 2023 kl. 10:00.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indholdet i dette materiale udg\u00f8r ikke personlig investeringsr\u00e5dgivning. Det er vigtigt, at du som investor tr\u00e6ffer dine investeringsbeslutninger ud fra din egen vurdering af information fra forskellige kilder. Nordnet p\u00e5tager sig intet ansvar for direkte eller indirekte tab som f\u00f8lge af brug af information fra dette materiale. Materialet m\u00e5 ikke gengives uden Nordnets udtrykkelige samtykke.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thorleif Jackson modtager honorar fra Nordnet. Honoraret er aftalt p\u00e5 forh\u00e5nd og er ikke afh\u00e6ngig af materialets indhold eller de virksomheder, som er omtalt heri.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det kan forekomme, at Nordnet har positioner i v\u00e6rdipapirer, der omtales i materialet. En s\u00e5dan beholdning er da alene af administrative hensyn og uden fortjeneste for Nordnet.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nordnet er under tilsyn af Finansinspektionen i Sverige og det danske Finanstilsyn.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Der er altid en risiko forbundet med at investere. Historiske afkast er ikke en garanti for fremtidige afkast. Finansielle instrumenter kan b\u00e5de stige og falde i v\u00e6rdi. Der er en risiko for, at du ikke f\u00e5r de investerede penge tilbage.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Hvilken aktie er Danmarks bedste? Aktieanalytiker Thorleif Jackson er dykket ned i n\u00f8gletal for Coloplast og har set n\u00e6rmere p\u00e5, om den kunne v\u00e6re en kandidat til titlen. L\u00e6s hans vurdering her.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40009,"featured_media":42864,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1291],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49741","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/06\/Thorleif_Jackson_1200x430-150x54.jpg","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/06\/Thorleif_Jackson_1200x430-150x54.jpg 150w, 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