{"id":49930,"date":"2023-02-17T10:01:09","date_gmt":"2023-02-17T09:01:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/?p=49930"},"modified":"2025-05-12T09:03:53","modified_gmt":"2025-05-12T07:03:53","slug":"thorleif-jackson-ligner-fiserv-et-let-investeringsvalg","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/thorleif-jackson-ligner-fiserv-et-let-investeringsvalg\/","title":{"rendered":"Thorleif Jackson: Ligner Fiserv et let investeringsvalg?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

I dette indl\u00e6g kigger aktieanalytiker Thorleif Jackson n\u00e6rmere p\u00e5 selskabet Fiserv, som han synes ser interessant ud lige nu. Derfor har han ogs\u00e5 selv k\u00f8bt aktien til sin globale modelportef\u00f8lje. L\u00e6s hvorfor i artiklen her og vurder, om du er enig.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

F\u00e5 selskaber i verden har en mere stabil forretningsmodel end Fiserv. Hvis nogen aktier fortjener en ekstrem h\u00f8j priss\u00e6tning, m\u00e5 det v\u00e6re et selskab som Fiserv, der har leveret rekordresultater i 39 ud af 40 \u00e5r. Fiserv er med Price\/Earnings = 16 n\u00e6rmest historisk billig i februar 2023.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fiserv<\/a>, en sammentr\u00e6kning af FInancial SERVices (FISV p\u00e5 NASDAQ<\/a>), blev skabt i 1984 ved en sammenslutning af tre regionale, amerikanske selskaber inden for databehandling. Oms\u00e6tningen er siden 1984 \u00f8get dramatisk via opk\u00f8b og organisk v\u00e6kst. Alene i perioden 1985-1994 opslugte selskabet 49 mindre konkurrenter. De st\u00f8rste akkvisitioner til dato var k\u00f8bet af CheckFree i december 2007 og k\u00f8bet af First Data i 2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ledelsen har over \u00e5rene bevist, at forretningsmodellen med anvendelse af \u00e5rets overskud til opk\u00f8b virker. De seneste 25 \u00e5r er oms\u00e6tningen 18-doblet fra 974 mio. dollars til 17,74 mia. dollar (ca. 123 mia. kroner), mens indtjeningen pr. aktie (EPS) er hele 50-doblet fra 0,13 dollars til 6,49 dollar, svarende til gennemsnitlig EPS-v\u00e6kst p\u00e5 17%. EPS vokser hurtigere end toplinjen som f\u00f8lge af stordriftsfordele og opk\u00f8b af egne aktier. Det skal bem\u00e6rkes, at jeg med EPS mener non-GAAP indtjening pr. aktie. Fiserv har hvert \u00e5r mange engangsposter til integration og rationaliseringer og fra frasalg af ikke-kerneforretninger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nedenst\u00e5ende graf viser udviklingen for Fiservs EPS siden 1993:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a>
Klik for st\u00f8rre version<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kilde: Egen tilvirkning. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Som det fremg\u00e5r, er EPS vokset ca. 17% p.a. siden 1998 og noget hurtigere inden 1998. V\u00e6ksten er IKKE aftaget med tiden. V\u00e6ksten de seneste fem \u00e5r var s\u00e5ledes 21%, 29%, 11%, 26% og 16% (gennemsnit 20%). I 2023 forventer Fiserv organisk oms\u00e6tningsv\u00e6kst p\u00e5 7-9% og justeret EPS-v\u00e6kst p\u00e5 12-14% til 7,25-7,40 dollars. Markedet forventer pt., at EPS stiger 6,49 dollars i 2022 til 8,38 dollars i 2024, svarende til fornyet v\u00e6kst p\u00e5 13,6% p.a. Med den seneste kurs p\u00e5 116,5 dollars er aktien prissat svarende til P\/E2022<\/sub>=18,0 og P\/E2023<\/sub>=15,9. Til sammenligning har aktien historisk handlet i kurskanalen P\/E=15-30 det meste af tiden, j\u00e6vnf\u00f8r nedenst\u00e5ende graf:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a>
Klik for st\u00f8rre version<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kilde: Egen tilvirkning. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

En af 14 aktier i global modelportef\u00f8lje<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeg synes umiddelbart, at Fiserv virker attraktivt prissat. Ikke mindst, fordi den forventede EPS-v\u00e6kst p\u00e5 13,6% er lidt under den historiske v\u00e6kst p\u00e5 17%. Det giver muligheder for positive overraskelser. Jeg h\u00e5ber ogs\u00e5, at priss\u00e6tningen kan stige fra P\/E=16 til et niveau over P\/E=25 som i perioden 2014-2021. Hvis indtjeningen udvikler sig som forventet, og priss\u00e6tningen stiger moderat fra P\/E=16 i februar 2023 til P\/E=20 i december 2024, b\u00f8r kursen stige 44% fra 116,5 dollars til 168 dollars over de n\u00e6ste 23 m\u00e5neder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jeg synes, at Fiserv ligner en rigtig god investering<\/a>, og jeg har derfor k\u00f8bt aktien til min globale modelportef\u00f8lje. Jeg k\u00f8bte Fiserv til kurs 98,15 dollars den 9. juni 2022. Kursen er forel\u00f8big steget ca. 19% p\u00e5 otte m\u00e5neder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hvis nogen er i tvivl om, hvorvidt Fiserv er et velrenomeret foretagende, hj\u00e6lper det m\u00e5ske, at selskabet har v\u00e6ret p\u00e5 den prestigefulde liste over Fortune World\u2019s Most Admired Companies i 12 af de sidste 15 \u00e5r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hvad mener du om ovenst\u00e5ende analyse? Er du enig i, at Fiserv kan ligne en god investering? Har jeg overset noget vigtigt? Det er som altid vigtigt, at du som investor tr\u00e6ffer dine egne beslutninger. Dette er ikke en k\u00f8bsanbefaling eller en salgsanbefaling. Forfatteren tager intet ansvar for l\u00e6serens evt. tab eller gevinst ved handel med Fiserv-aktien.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
L\u00e6s mere af Thorleif Jackson<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Disclaimer: Thorleif Jackson ejer selv aktier i Fiserv.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dette materiale er udarbejdet af Thorleif Jackson og indeholder information, der kan anses for at v\u00e6re en investeringsanbefaling i henhold til Markedsmisbrugsforordningen (Europa-Parlamentets og R\u00e5dets forordning 596\/2014), dvs. information som anbefaler eller foresl\u00e5r en investeringsstrategi. Nordnet Bank, filial af Nordnet Bank AB, Sverige (Nordnet), har ikke deltaget i udarbejdelsen, gennemg\u00e5et eller foretaget \u00e6ndringer i materialet. Thorleif Jackson har ansvaret for materialets indhold, og at det lever op til g\u00e6ldende lovgivning og regler.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Materialet har ikke v\u00e6ret forelagt de omtalte selskaber.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dette materiale blev offentliggjort f\u00f8rste gang den 17. februar 2023 kl. 10:00.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indholdet i dette materiale udg\u00f8r ikke personlig investeringsr\u00e5dgivning. Det er vigtigt, at du som investor tr\u00e6ffer dine investeringsbeslutninger ud fra din egen vurdering af information fra forskellige kilder. Nordnet p\u00e5tager sig intet ansvar for direkte eller indirekte tab som f\u00f8lge af brug af information fra dette materiale. Materialet m\u00e5 ikke gengives uden Nordnets udtrykkelige samtykke.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thorleif Jackson modtager honorar fra Nordnet. Honoraret er aftalt p\u00e5 forh\u00e5nd og er ikke afh\u00e6ngig af materialets indhold eller de virksomheder, som er omtalt heri.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det kan forekomme, at Nordnet har positioner i v\u00e6rdipapirer, der omtales i materialet. En s\u00e5dan beholdning er da alene af administrative hensyn og uden fortjeneste for Nordnet.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nordnet er under tilsyn af Finansinspektionen i Sverige og det danske Finanstilsyn.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Der er altid en risiko forbundet med at investere. Historiske afkast er ikke en garanti for fremtidige afkast. Finansielle instrumenter kan b\u00e5de stige og falde i v\u00e6rdi. Der er en risiko for, at du ikke f\u00e5r de investerede penge tilbage.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Thorleif Jackson ser n\u00e6rmere p\u00e5 selskabet Fiserv, som han synes ser interessant ud lige nu. L\u00e6s hvorfor i artiklen her, og vurder om du er enig.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40009,"featured_media":49947,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1291],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49930","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/06\/Thorleif_Jackson_sidder_1200x430-150x54.jpg","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/06\/Thorleif_Jackson_sidder_1200x430-150x54.jpg 150w, 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