{"id":50152,"date":"2023-02-23T15:46:36","date_gmt":"2023-02-23T14:46:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/?p=50152"},"modified":"2025-05-12T08:31:27","modified_gmt":"2025-05-12T06:31:27","slug":"jd-com-i-min-globale-modelportefolje","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/jd-com-i-min-globale-modelportefolje\/","title":{"rendered":"10 tech-aktier: Derfor \u00f8ger jeg JD.com i global portef\u00f8lje"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

JD.com<\/a> fungerer som et virtuelt indk\u00f8bscenter for 1,4 milliarder kinesere. Selskabet oplever i disse \u00e5r h\u00f8j v\u00e6kst og stigende l\u00f8nsomhed, som f\u00e5r indtjeningen til at vokse kraftigt \u00e5r for \u00e5r. Aktien er faldet 43% fra toppen i februar 2021, og jeg synes, den virker attraktivt prissat for tiden. Jeg \u00f8ger derfor JD.coms v\u00e6gt fra 4,3% til 7,0% i min globale modelportef\u00f8lje. L\u00e6s mere om hvorfor her, hvor jeg ogs\u00e5 fremh\u00e6ver de st\u00f8rste kinesiske teknologiaktier.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nedenfor har jeg vist n\u00f8gletal for de ni st\u00f8rste kinesiske teknologiaktier m\u00e5lt p\u00e5 b\u00f8rsv\u00e6rdi. Jeg har tilf\u00f8jet Weibo, der m\u00e5ske kan ses som Kinas svar p\u00e5 Twitter. Seks af de ti aktier<\/a> er b\u00f8rsnoteret i USA og kan uden videre erhverves via Nordnets handelsplatform. De fire sidste er b\u00f8rsnoteret i Hongkong. Flere af aktierne er noteret p\u00e5 to b\u00f8rser. Det g\u00e6lder eksempelvis JD.com, der er noteret i USA og Hongkong. De fleste kinesiske selskaber laver deres regnskaber i kinesiske yuan (CNY).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00f8gletal for 10 f\u00f8rende kinesiske teknologiaktier:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a>
Klik for st\u00f8rre version<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Data pr. 17. februar 2023. Estimater if\u00f8lge MarketScreener.com. *Estimater if\u00f8lge Yahoo! Finance<\/em>. Husk, at historisk afkast ikke er garanti for fremtidigt afkast.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Om JD.com<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeg vil i resten af denne artikel udelukkende skrive om JD.com, som jeg k\u00f8bte til min globale modelportef\u00f8lje hos Nordnet i juni 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JD.com driver en k\u00e6mpe onlinebutik, hvor m\u00e6rkevareselskaber hver har deres egne underbutikker. Eksempelvis kan man som kineser k\u00f8be medicin hos JD.com via Sinopharms underbutik. JD.com lover at levere medicinen inden for \u00e9n time. Det er muligt, fordi Sinopharm har over 5.000 apoteker j\u00e6vnt fordelt over hele Kina. JD.com kan derfor ses som et virtuelt indk\u00f8bscenter med en masse attraktive butikker. Med en oms\u00e6tning p\u00e5 1.068 mia. kr. er JD.com Kinas st\u00f8rste selskab m\u00e5lt p\u00e5 oms\u00e6tning. Og JD.com er med en b\u00f8rsv\u00e6rdi p\u00e5 582 mia. kr. Kinas 5. st\u00f8rste teknologiselskab m\u00e5lt p\u00e5 b\u00f8rsv\u00e6rdi. Selskabet kan ses som Kinas svar p\u00e5 Amazon<\/a>.com.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oms\u00e6tningens udvikling er vist i grafen nedenfor. Bem\u00e6rk logaritmisk skala.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Husk, at historisk afkast ikke er garanti for fremtidigt afkast.<\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Som det fremg\u00e5r, er JD.coms oms\u00e6tning 25-doblet p\u00e5 10 \u00e5r, svarende til gennemsnitlig \u00e5rlig v\u00e6kst p\u00e5 38%. I de kommende to \u00e5r forventes oms\u00e6tningen at vokse fra 1.047 mia. CNY til 1.370 mia. CNY, svarende til fornyet v\u00e6kst p\u00e5 14,4% p.a.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JD.com har historisk fokuseret p\u00e5 v\u00e6kst snarere end l\u00f8nsomhed. JD.com fik s\u00e5ledes sit f\u00f8rste overskud s\u00e5 sent som i 2019. Korrigeret for visse engangsomkostninger har selskabet dog opn\u00e5et sm\u00e5 overskud ogs\u00e5 i 2016, 2017 og 2018. Men marginen er papirtynd med en overskudsgrad p\u00e5 blot 0,4% i 2021. Trenden er imidlertid positiv, og markedet forventer, at overskudsgraden stiger til 2,7% i 2024. Se ogs\u00e5 grafen nedenfor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Husk, at historisk afkast ikke er garanti for fremtidigt afkast.<\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

JD.coms justerede indtjening pr. aktie er \u00f8get fra 0,21 USD i 2016 til forventet 2,40 USD i 2022. Den justerede indtjening forventes at stige 24,6% til 2,99 USD i 2023. Se grafen her:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Husk, at historisk afkast ikke er garanti for fremtidigt afkast.<\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

JD.com blev b\u00f8rsnoteret i USA i maj 2014. P\u00e5 dav\u00e6rende tidspunkt var det den st\u00f8rste kinesiske b\u00f8rsnotering nogensinde i USA. Den rekord blev dog sl\u00e5et af Alibaba<\/a> bare fire m\u00e5neder senere. JD.com blev b\u00f8rsnoteret i kurs 19 dollars. Kursen toppede omkring 94 dollars i februar 2021. Siden da er kursen faldet 43% til ca. 53,01 dollars pr. 17. februar 2023. Den seneste kurs svarer til en priss\u00e6tning p\u00e5 P\/E2022<\/sub>=22,1 og P\/E2023<\/sub>=17,7. Som s\u00e5dan er JD.com prissat med en pr\u00e6mie p\u00e5 15-25% i forhold til verdensindekset MSCI ACWI, der aktuelt er prissat svarende til p\u00e5 P\/E2022<\/sub>=17,4 og P\/E2023<\/sub>=15,5. Ogs\u00e5 vist i grafen her:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Husk, at historisk afkast ikke er garanti for fremtidigt afkast.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

JD.coms oms\u00e6tning vokser langsommere end historisk, men selskabet er inde i en god udvikling med stigende l\u00f8nsomhed \u00e5r for \u00e5r. Indtjeningen vokser derfor en del hurtigere end oms\u00e6tningen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hvordan vil JD.com udvikle sig i fremtiden?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Det er selvf\u00f8lgelig sv\u00e6rt at vurdere, hvor l\u00e6nge den udvikling kan forts\u00e6tte, og hvor h\u00f8j indtjeningen kan blive ad \u00e5re, men lad os g\u00f8re et fors\u00f8g p\u00e5 at g\u00e6tte p\u00e5 fremtiden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hvis oms\u00e6tningen eksempelvis vokser som forventet i 2023 og 2024 og herefter vokser 10% \u00e5rligt, vil oms\u00e6tningen vokse fra 1.047 mia. CNY i 2022 (forventet) til ca. 2.950 mia. CNY i 2032. Og hvis overskudsgraden samtidig forbedres fra 1,7% i 2022 (forventet) til eksempelvis 5,0% i 2032, vil driftsindtjeningen 8-dobles fra 18,3 mia. CNY i 2022 (forventet) til 147 mia. CNY i 2032, svarende til gennemsnitlig indtjeningsv\u00e6kst p\u00e5 23% p.a. Med en udvanding p\u00e5 eksempelvis 2% \u00e5rligt som i perioden 2017-2022, og u\u00e6ndrede kapitalforhold i \u00f8vrigt, b\u00f8r indtjeningen pr. aktie (EPS) vokse ca. 21% p.a. til m\u00e5ske 16,3 USD pr. aktie i 2032. Med s\u00e5 flot v\u00e6kst b\u00f8r JD.com handles til en relativt h\u00f8j multipel i 2032. Jeg vil umiddelbart mene, at en multipel p\u00e5 20-30 gange indtjeningen vil v\u00e6re rimelig\/passende. Med de anvendte antagelser kan man forvente en aktiekurs i niveauet 325-490 USD om ti \u00e5r, selvom ingen kender fremtiden, svarende til et aktuelt kurspotentiale p\u00e5 20-25% p.a. f\u00f8r udbytter. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alle, der som ovenfor udtaler sig om fremtiden, b\u00f8r egentlig b\u00e6re en r\u00f8d klovnen\u00e6se som advarsel og p\u00e5mindelse om, at historien er det rene opspind! For ingen kender fremtiden, ej heller undertegnede. N\u00e6rv\u00e6rende er ikke en k\u00f8bsanbefaling p\u00e5 JD.com, og forfatteren tager intet ansvar for l\u00e6serens evt. tab p\u00e5 handel med JD.com. N\u00e5r det er sagt, synes jeg, JD.com ligner en fantastisk forretning med et solidt potentiale for h\u00f8j indtjeningsv\u00e6kst mange \u00e5r ind i fremtiden. Jeg synes, aktien virker rimeligt prissat i februar 2023, og jeg er glad for at have aktien i min modelportef\u00f8lje. Hvad er din vurdering af JD.com?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Justering af min globale modelportef\u00f8lje<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeg etablerede Nordnet Global-portef\u00f8ljen med 14 aktier i juni 2022. Seks af aktierne v\u00e6gtede dengang med ca. 5%, herunder JD.com og Jinhui Shipping<\/a>. Siden da er JD.com faldet ca. 13% til en ny v\u00e6gt p\u00e5 ca. 4,3%, mens Jinhui Shipping er faldet ca. 49% til en ny v\u00e6gt p\u00e5 ca. 2,5%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jeg v\u00e6lger i den situation at s\u00e6lge Jinhui Shipping helt og geninvestere provenuet i JD.com. Jeg har f\u00f8lgelig den 17. februar 2023 solgt mine 4.100 stk. Jinhui Shipping til kurs 9,10 NOK. Og jeg har samme dag k\u00f8bt 80 stk. JD.com til kurs 53,00 USD. Nordnet Global-portef\u00f8ljen best\u00e5r herefter af 13 aktier. Se dem i nedenst\u00e5ende tabel:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Nordnet Global pr. 17. februar 2023.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
Mere fra Thorleif om portef\u00f8ljen<\/strong> <\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thorleif Jackson ejer aktier i JD.com og Jinhui Shipping.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dette materiale er udarbejdet af Thorleif Jackson og indeholder information, der kan anses for at v\u00e6re en investeringsanbefaling i henhold til Markedsmisbrugsforordningen (Europa-Parlamentets og R\u00e5dets forordning 596\/2014), dvs. information som anbefaler eller foresl\u00e5r en investeringsstrategi. Nordnet Bank, filial af Nordnet Bank AB, Sverige (Nordnet), har ikke deltaget i udarbejdelsen, gennemg\u00e5et eller foretaget \u00e6ndringer i materialet. Thorleif Jackson har ansvaret for materialets indhold, og at det lever op til g\u00e6ldende lovgivning og regler.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Materialet har ikke v\u00e6ret forelagt de omtalte selskaber.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dette materiale blev offentliggjort f\u00f8rste gang den 23. februar 2023 kl. 15:45.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indholdet i dette materiale udg\u00f8r ikke personlig investeringsr\u00e5dgivning. Det er vigtigt, at du som investor tr\u00e6ffer dine investeringsbeslutninger ud fra din egen vurdering af information fra forskellige kilder. Nordnet p\u00e5tager sig intet ansvar for direkte eller indirekte tab som f\u00f8lge af brug af information fra dette materiale. Materialet m\u00e5 ikke gengives uden Nordnets udtrykkelige samtykke.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thorleif Jackson modtager honorar fra Nordnet. Honoraret er aftalt p\u00e5 forh\u00e5nd og er ikke afh\u00e6ngig af materialets indhold eller de virksomheder, som er omtalt heri.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det kan forekomme, at Nordnet har positioner i v\u00e6rdipapirer, der omtales i materialet. En s\u00e5dan beholdning er da alene af administrative hensyn og uden fortjeneste for Nordnet.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nordnet er under tilsyn af Finansinspektionen i Sverige og det danske Finanstilsyn.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Der er altid en risiko forbundet med at investere. Historiske afkast er ikke en garanti for fremtidige afkast. Finansielle instrumenter kan b\u00e5de stige og falde i v\u00e6rdi. Der er en risiko for, at du ikke f\u00e5r de investerede penge tilbage.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nordnet Global-portef\u00f8ljen best\u00e5r nu af 13 aktier, og Thorleif Jackson har \u00f8get JD.coms v\u00e6gt. Se hvorfor her, hvor han fremh\u00e6ver 10 kinesiske tech-aktier og viser den opdaterede globale modelportef\u00f8lje.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40009,"featured_media":42322,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1291],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50152","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/05\/Thorleif_Jackson_tag_1200x430-150x54.jpg","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/05\/Thorleif_Jackson_tag_1200x430-150x54.jpg 150w, 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