{"id":53108,"date":"2023-06-15T09:05:24","date_gmt":"2023-06-15T07:05:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/?p=53108"},"modified":"2025-07-14T10:27:16","modified_gmt":"2025-07-14T08:27:16","slug":"thorleif-jackson-analyse-af-5-amerikanske-tech-aktier","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/thorleif-jackson-analyse-af-5-amerikanske-tech-aktier\/","title":{"rendered":"Thorleif Jackson: Analyse af 5 amerikanske tech-aktier"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Jeg skrev senest om US Big Tech i januar 2022. Dengang var FAANG-aktierne \u2013 Meta Platforms (Facebook<\/a>), Amazon<\/a>, Apple, Netflix<\/a> og Alphabet<\/a> (Google) \u2013 prissat med en pr\u00e6mie p\u00e5 ca. 75% i forhold til verdensindekset. Nasdaq 100<\/a> faldt kort efter n\u00e6sten 30%, men siden bunden i oktober 2022 er kurserne steget 35%, s\u00e5 vi nu n\u00e6sten er tilbage, hvor vi var i januar 2022. I dag handles MSCI Information Technology-indekset med en prm\u00e6ie p\u00e5 60-75% i forhold til MSCI World. Sp\u00f8rgsm\u00e5let er, om pr\u00e6mien er fortjent, eller om den vil indsn\u00e6vres i de kommende m\u00e5neder og \u00e5r?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00f8gletal for de mest v\u00e6rdifulde tech-aktier<\/a><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeg har til n\u00e6rv\u00e6rende opdatering beregnet n\u00f8gletal for de syv mest v\u00e6rdifulde teknologiaktier m\u00e5lt p\u00e5 b\u00f8rsv\u00e6rdi. Se nedenst\u00e5ende tabel:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kilde: Estimater if\u00f8lge Marketscreener.com. Data pr. 9. juni 2023. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast, ligesom estimater ikke garanterer fremtidig udvikling<\/em>. Klik p\u00e5 tabellen eller her for en st\u00f8rre version<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Apple, Microsoft<\/a> og Alphabet har fortsat b\u00f8rsv\u00e6rdier p\u00e5 over 10.000 milliarder kroner, mens Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla<\/a> og Meta har b\u00f8rsv\u00e6rdier i niveauet 4.700-8.700 milliarder kroner. De h\u00f8je markedsv\u00e6rdier afspejler, at aktierne er historiske vindere med fantastiske historiske afkast.M\u00e5lt i forhold til indtjeningen er US Big Tech-aktierne prissat svarende til P\/E2023<\/sub>=47,3, P\/E2024<\/sub>=34,9 og P\/E2025<\/sub>=28,1. Til sammenligning er MSCI World prissat svarende til P\/ETMT<\/sub>=19,2 og P\/EFWD<\/sub>=16,2 (pr. 31. maj 2023).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jeg har valgt at se n\u00e6rmere p\u00e5 fem af Big Tech-aktierne, nemlig Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon og Meta Platforms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Apple Inc.<\/a><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kilde: Yahoo Finance. Estimater if\u00f8lge Marketscreener.com. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast, ligesom estimater ikke garanterer fremtidig udvikling.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

De seneste 10 \u00e5r er Apples oms\u00e6tning vokset svarende til 9,7% p.a. Fremover forventes moderat v\u00e6kst p\u00e5 3,7% p.a. Apples EBIT-overskudsgrad har v\u00e6ret ret konstant omkring et gennemsnit p\u00e5 28,5% i perioden 2012-2022. I de kommende tre \u00e5r forventes en tilsvarende h\u00f8j l\u00f8nsomhed i niveauet 29,2-29,4%. Indtjeningen pr. aktie forventes at vokse 5,4% p.a. i perioden 2022 til 2025. Det virker ikke umiddelbart s\u00e5 h\u00f8jt, men det kan jo nok v\u00e6re sv\u00e6rt at vokse indtjeningen, n\u00e5r den allerede er temmelig h\u00f8j. Apples nettoresultat var s\u00e5ledes hele 99,8 milliarder dollars i 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kilde: Yahoo Finance. Estimater if\u00f8lge Marketscreener.com. <\/em>Periode: December 2005 til december 2026. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast, ligesom estimater ikke garanterer fremtidig udvikling.<\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Apples aktiekurs er vokset fra 2,57 dollars i december 2005 til 181 dollars i juni 2023. I den periode har kursen det meste af tiden holdt sig inden for en kurskanal mellem P\/E=10 og P\/E=30. Den aktuelle kurs svarer til en priss\u00e6tning p\u00e5 P\/E2023<\/sub>=30,2 og P\/E2024<\/sub>=27,7. Som s\u00e5dan virker Apple fuldt prissat i juni 2023. Med mindre indtjeningen opjusteres, skal man nok ikke forvente, at kursen stiger ret meget i de kommende \u00e5r. Omvendt er risikoen for store kursfald betragtelig, hvis indtjeningen nedjusteres.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Microsoft<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kilde: Yahoo Finance. Estimater if\u00f8lge Marketscreener.com.<\/em> Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast, ligesom estimater ikke garanterer fremtidig udvikling.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

De seneste 10 \u00e5r er Microsofts oms\u00e6tning vokset svarende til 10,4% p.a. Fremover forventes oms\u00e6tningen at stige med ca. 10,3% p.a.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Microsofts EBIT-overskudsgrad er de seneste 10 \u00e5r steget fra 29,5% til 42,1% (gennemsnit 33,0%). Det vidner om en meget positiv udvikling. I de kommende tre \u00e5r forventes overskudsgraden fastholdt i niveauet 41-43%, omtrent som i 2022 og 2021. Indtjeningen pr. aktie forventes at vokse med 9,6% p.a. i perioden 2022 til 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kilde: Yahoo Finance. Estimater if\u00f8lge Marketscreener.com.<\/em> Periode: Juni 2995 til juni 2025. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast, ligesom estimater ikke garanterer fremtidig udvikling.<\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Microsofts aktiekurs er vokset fra 5,3 dollars i juni 1995 til 326,8 dollars i juni 2023. Kursen toppede omkring 58,4 dollars i december 1999, og n\u00e5ede f\u00f8rst over dette niveau igen n\u00e6sten 17 \u00e5r senere i oktober 2016. Kursen har ikke rigtig fulgt nogen kurskanal, hvilket har forvirret mange investorer, herunder undertegnede. Den aktuelle kurs svarer til en priss\u00e6tning p\u00e5 P\/E2023<\/sub>=34,3 og P\/E2024<\/sub>=29,7 og P\/E2025<\/sub>=25,7.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alphabet (Google)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kilde: Yahoo Finance. Estimater if\u00f8lge Marketscreener.com.<\/em> Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast, ligesom estimater ikke garanterer fremtidig udvikling.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alphabet er moderselskabet for Google, Youtube mv. De seneste 10 \u00e5r er Alphabets oms\u00e6tning vokset svarende til 19,9% p.a. Fremover forventes oms\u00e6tningen at vokse med ca. 9,8% p.a.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alphabets EBIT-overskudsgrad var i gennemsnit p\u00e5 25,4% i perioden 2012-2022. I de kommende tre \u00e5r forventes overskudsgraden at stige fra 26,5% i 2022 til 28,6% i 2025. De forbedrede marginer forventes at f\u00e5 indtjeningen pr. aktie til at vokse 17,5% p.a. i perioden 2022 til 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kilde: Yahoo Finance. Estimater if\u00f8lge Marketscreener.com.<\/em> Periode: December 2003 til december 2026. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast, ligesom estimater ikke garanterer fremtidig udvikling.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alphabets aktiekurs er vokset fra 2,5 dollars i august 2004 til 122,2 dollars i juni 2023. I den periode har kursen meget af tiden ligget inden for en kurskanal mellem P\/E=18 og P\/E=30. Den aktuelle kurs svarer til en priss\u00e6tning p\u00e5 P\/E2023<\/sub>=22,9 og P\/E2024<\/sub>=19,5 og P\/E2025<\/sub>=16,6. Som s\u00e5dan er Alphabet prissat med en moderat pr\u00e6mie p\u00e5 blot 20% i forhold til en gennemsnitsaktie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Amazon<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kilde: Yahoo Finance. Estimater if\u00f8lge Marketscreener.com.<\/em> Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast, ligesom estimater ikke garanterer fremtidig udvikling.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Amazon er en pioner inden for onlinehandel. De seneste 10 \u00e5r er Amazons oms\u00e6tning vokset svarende til 23,7% p.a. Fremover forventes oms\u00e6tningen at vokse med ca. 10,9% p.a.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Amazons marginer er tynde. Selskabets gennemsnitlige EBIT-overskudsgrad var s\u00e5ledes blot 3,1% i perioden 2012-2022. I 2022 faldt overskudsgraden til 2,4%, hvilket medf\u00f8rte at selskabet fik underskud. I de kommende tre \u00e5r forventes overskudsgraden at stige fra 2,4% til 6,9%. Indtjeningen pr. aktie forventes f\u00f8lgelig at vokse fra -0,27 dollars i 2022 til 3,72 dollars i 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kilde: Yahoo Finance. Estimater if\u00f8lge Marketscreener.com.<\/em> Periode: December 2004 til december 2026. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast, ligesom estimater ikke garanterer fremtidig udvikling.<\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Amazons aktiekurs er vokset fra 2,22 dollars i december 2004 til 123,4 dollars i juni 2023. I den periode har kursen det meste af tiden handlet til ekstremt h\u00f8je Price\/Earnings-rater. Den aktuelle kurs svarer til en priss\u00e6tning p\u00e5 P\/E2023<\/sub>=79 og P\/E2024<\/sub>=48 og P\/E2025<\/sub>=33. Som s\u00e5dan er Amazon fortsat meget h\u00f8jt prissat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meta Platforms (Facebook)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kilde: Yahoo Finance. Estimater if\u00f8lge Marketscreener.com.<\/em> Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast, ligesom estimater ikke garanterer fremtidig udvikling.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meta Platforms er moderselskabet for Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp mv. De seneste 10 \u00e5r er oms\u00e6tningen vokset svarende til gennemsnitlig v\u00e6kst p\u00e5 37% p.a. Fremover forventes oms\u00e6tningen at vokse med ca. 9,8% p.a. Indtjeningen faldt 38% i 2022, men forventes at n\u00e5 nye h\u00f8jder i 2024 og 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meta Platforms EBIT-overskudsgrad var i gennemsnit p\u00e5 36,8% i perioden 2012-2022. I 2022 faldt overskudsgraden til 25,8%. I de kommende tre \u00e5r forventes overskudsgraden at stige p\u00e6nt til 33,1% i 2025. Indtjeningen pr. aktie forventes f\u00f8lgelig at stige kraftigt fra 8,6 dollars i 2022 til 16,5 dollars i 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kilde: Yahoo Finance. Estimater if\u00f8lge Marketscreener.com.<\/em> Periode: December 2009 til december 2026. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast, ligesom estimater ikke garanterer fremtidig udvikling.<\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Facebooks aktiekurs er vokset fra 38 dollars i maj 2012 til 265 dollars i juni 2022. Selskabets indtjeningsproblemer i 2022 fik aktiekursen til at falde hele 75% fra 379 dollars i september 2021 til en bund omkring 93 dollars i oktober 2022. Det var en oplagt mulighed for at k\u00f8be Big Tech-aktien til en Price\/Earnings-rate under 10. Ved kurs 93 dollars var Meta Platforms s\u00e5ledes prissat svarende til P\/E2022<\/sub>=6,7. Den aktuelle kurs p\u00e5 265 dollars svarer til en priss\u00e6tning p\u00e5 P\/E2023<\/sub>=22,5 og P\/E2024<\/sub>=18,2 og P\/E2025<\/sub>=16,0. Som s\u00e5dan er Meta Platforms ligesom Alphabet\/Google prissat med en beskeden pr\u00e6mie p\u00e5 ca. 20% i forhold til en gennemsnitsaktie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sammenfatning: De vigtigste v\u00e6kstrater<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeg har samlet de vigtigste v\u00e6kstrater mv. i oversigtstabellen her:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kilde: Yahoo Finance. Estimater if\u00f8lge Marketscreener.com.<\/em> Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast, ligesom estimater ikke garanterer fremtidig udvikling.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Som det fremg\u00e5r, har Meta Platforms (Facebook) mange fortrin i forhold til de andre Big Tech-aktier, bl.a. h\u00f8jeste overskudsgrad, h\u00f8jeste historiske v\u00e6kst i oms\u00e6tning og indtjening samt h\u00f8jeste fremtidige oms\u00e6tningsv\u00e6kst og indtjeningsv\u00e6kst. Dertil er Meta Platforms billigst m\u00e5lt p\u00e5 Price\/Earnings for 2023, 2024 og 2025. Alphabet\/Google ser ogs\u00e5 fornuftig ud, for s\u00e5 vidt ang\u00e5r fremtidig v\u00e6kst og aktuel priss\u00e6tning. Apple og Microsoft virker derimod fuldt prissat, mens Amazon, Nvidia og Tesla forekommer decideret h\u00f8jt prissat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Min analyse peger s\u00e5ledes p\u00e5, at is\u00e6r Meta Platforms og Alphabet\/Google kunne v\u00e6re gode investeringer i juni 2023. En god investeringsstrategi kunne v\u00e6re at k\u00f8be en mindre position i en favoritaktie og dern\u00e6st h\u00e5be, at den falder i kurs. Hvorefter man kan k\u00f8be flere. Den strategi havde fungeret godt med Meta Platforms i 2022 og 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hvad mener du om ovenst\u00e5ende analyse?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
Mere inspiration til tech-aktier<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thorleif Jackson ejer selv aktier i Alphabet via Jackson FamilieInvest.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dette materiale er udarbejdet af Thorleif Jackson og indeholder information, der kan anses for at v\u00e6re en investeringsanbefaling i henhold til Markedsmisbrugsforordningen (Europa-Parlamentets og R\u00e5dets forordning 596\/2014), dvs. information som anbefaler eller foresl\u00e5r en investeringsstrategi. Nordnet Bank, filial af Nordnet Bank AB, Sverige (Nordnet), har ikke deltaget i udarbejdelsen, gennemg\u00e5et eller foretaget \u00e6ndringer i materialet. Thorleif Jackson har ansvaret for materialets indhold, og at det lever op til g\u00e6ldende lovgivning og regler.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Materialet har ikke v\u00e6ret forelagt de omtalte selskaber.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dette materiale blev offentliggjort f\u00f8rste gang den 15. juni 2023 kl. 09:00.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indholdet i dette materiale udg\u00f8r ikke personlig investeringsr\u00e5dgivning. Det er vigtigt, at du som investor tr\u00e6ffer dine investeringsbeslutninger ud fra din egen vurdering af information fra forskellige kilder. Nordnet p\u00e5tager sig intet ansvar for direkte eller indirekte tab som f\u00f8lge af brug af information fra dette materiale. Materialet m\u00e5 ikke gengives uden Nordnets udtrykkelige samtykke.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thorleif Jackson modtager honorar fra Nordnet. Honoraret er aftalt p\u00e5 forh\u00e5nd og er ikke afh\u00e6ngig af materialets indhold eller de virksomheder, som er omtalt heri.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det kan forekomme, at Nordnet har positioner i v\u00e6rdipapirer, der omtales i materialet. En s\u00e5dan beholdning er da alene af administrative hensyn og uden fortjeneste for Nordnet.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nordnet er under tilsyn af Finansinspektionen i Sverige og det danske Finanstilsyn.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Der er altid en risiko forbundet med at investere. Historiske afkast er ikke en garanti for fremtidige afkast. Finansielle instrumenter kan b\u00e5de stige og falde i v\u00e6rdi. Der er en risiko for, at du ikke f\u00e5r de investerede penge tilbage.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Se n\u00f8gletal for de mest v\u00e6rdifulde tech-aktier m\u00e5lt p\u00e5 b\u00f8rsv\u00e6rdi. Analytiker Thorleif Jackson deler her sine analyser af fem aktier inden for US Big Tech.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40009,"featured_media":53110,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1291],"tags":[2310],"class_list":["post-53108","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-tophistorier"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2023\/06\/Computer_telefon_Apple_1200x430-150x54.jpg","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2023\/06\/Computer_telefon_Apple_1200x430-150x54.jpg 150w, 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