{"id":56341,"date":"2023-12-06T15:15:15","date_gmt":"2023-12-06T14:15:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/?p=56341"},"modified":"2023-12-08T15:41:41","modified_gmt":"2023-12-08T14:41:41","slug":"status-global-portefoelje-pandora-funkler","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/status-global-portefoelje-pandora-funkler\/","title":{"rendered":"Status for global portef\u00f8lje: Pandora funkler"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Min globale portef\u00f8lje hos Nordnet har de seneste seks m\u00e5neder givet et afkast p\u00e5 11,7%. Det er 6,2% bedre end verdensindekset og 15,7% bedre end C25<\/a>. Afkastet er trukket op af Pandora<\/a>, der gav afkast p\u00e5 67,8% i perioden.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jeg lancerede min nyeste globale modelportef\u00f8lje p\u00e5 Nordnets blog for nu 18 m\u00e5neder siden. Du kan se portef\u00f8ljens udvikling de seneste seks m\u00e5neder samt siden dens start den 31. maj 2022 nedenfor:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Halv\u00e5rsstatus for global portef\u00f8lje<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Klik p\u00e5 tabellen for st\u00f8rre version<\/em>. Kilde: Yahoo Finance og\/eller MarketScreener.com. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Som det fremg\u00e5r, steg portef\u00f8ljen 11,7% de seneste seks m\u00e5neder, mens MSCI ACWI net (verdensindeks inkl. udbytter) steg 5,5% og C25 faldt 4,0%. Portef\u00f8ljen outperformede dermed verdensindekset med hele 6,2 procentpoint i perioden. Husk, at dine investeringer typisk skal ses over en l\u00e6ngere tidshorisont.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

De bedste aktier<\/a> i perioden var Pandora (+67,8%), LEG Immobilien (+46,3%), Booking Holdings (+20,1%) og Globe Life (+16,2%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

De svageste aktier i perioden var Canadian Solar<\/a> (-49,1%), JD.com<\/a> (-22,2%) og HDFC Bank<\/a> (-9,2%). F\u00f8lgende aktier betalte udbytte<\/a> i perioden: Globe Life (0,225+0,225 USD), Rio Tinto (1,77 USD) og HDFC Bank (0,684 USD). Kontantbeholdningen steg derved fra 9.905 kr. til 13.296 kr.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Siden portef\u00f8ljens start den 31. maj 2022 er den steget 3,9%, mens verdensindekset er steget 7,4%, og C25 er steget 5,3%. Portef\u00f8ljen ligger dermed 3,5 procentpoint efter verdensindekset efter 18 m\u00e5neder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00f8gletal for portef\u00f8ljens 13 aktier<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Jeg har beregnet opdaterede n\u00f8gletal for portef\u00f8ljen, j\u00e6vnf\u00f8r nedenst\u00e5ende tabel:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Klik p\u00e5 tabellen for en st\u00f8rre version.<\/em> Kilde: Estimater if\u00f8lge Yahoo Finance og\/eller MarketScreener.com. Data pr. 30. november 2023. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast, ligesom estimater ikke garanterer fremtidig udvikling.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jeg har i tabellen anvendt konsensusestimater fra Market Screener og Yahoo Finance. Som det fremg\u00e5r, er portef\u00f8ljen prissat svarende til P\/E2023<\/sub>=13,9, P\/E2024<\/sub>=12,9 og P\/E2025<\/sub>=10,4. Til sammenligning er MSCI ACWI prissat svarende til P\/ETTM<\/sub>=18,0 og P\/EFWD<\/sub>=14,9 (pr. 31. oktober 2023). Portef\u00f8ljen er dermed prissat med stor rabat i forhold til markedet, selvom kvaliteten i mine \u00f8jne er langt over gennemsnittet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pandora funkler<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Det var is\u00e6r Pandora, der funklede i perioden, og jeg vil derfor vise opdaterede grafer for smykkeaktien og forklare, hvorfor jeg fortsat ser et p\u00e6nt potentiale i aktien.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oms\u00e6tning:<\/strong><\/h6>\n\n\n\n

Pandora blev b\u00f8rsnoteret i oktober 2010 til kurs 263 kr. Pandora har siden b\u00f8rsnoteringen \u00f8get oms\u00e6tningen fra 6.666 mio. kr. i 2010 til 26.463 mio. kr. i 2022, svarende til gennemsnitlig v\u00e6kst p\u00e5 12,2% p.a. Se nedenst\u00e5ende graf:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kilde: Marketscreener.com. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast, ligesom estimater ikke garanterer fremtidig udvikling.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I de n\u00e6ste tre \u00e5r inkl. 2023 forventer markedet fornyet oms\u00e6tningsv\u00e6kst p\u00e5 7,1% p.a. Den forventede v\u00e6kst er markant lavere end den historiske. Markedets forventninger kan vise sig at v\u00e6re for konservative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBIT:<\/h6>\n\n\n\n

Pandora har siden b\u00f8rsnoteringen opn\u00e5et en gennemsnitlig EBIT-overskudsgrad p\u00e5 28,4%. Se nedenst\u00e5ende graf:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kilde: Marketscreener.com. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast, ligesom estimater ikke garanterer fremtidig udvikling.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markedet forventer, at overskudsgraden stiger en smule fra 25,5% i 2022 til 25,9% i 2025. Markedets forventninger er en del lavere end det historiske niveau.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indtjening pr. aktie:<\/h6>\n\n\n\n

Pandora har siden b\u00f8rsnoteringen \u00f8get indtjeningen pr. aktie (EPS) fra 14,6 kr. til 53,7 kr. Det svarer til gennemsnitlig v\u00e6kst p\u00e5 11,5% p.a. Se nedenst\u00e5ende graf:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kilde: Marketscreener.com. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast, ligesom estimater ikke garanterer fremtidig udvikling.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markedet forventer, at EPS vokser til 75,0 kr. i 2025, svarende til fornyet v\u00e6kst p\u00e5 11,8% p.a. V\u00e6ksten kan blive h\u00f8jere, hvis oms\u00e6tningen vokser hurtigere end forventet, eller hvis overskudsgraden stiger mere end forventet. EPS kan ogs\u00e5 stige mere end forventet, hvis Pandora tilbagek\u00f8ber flere aktier end ventet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Udest\u00e5ende aktier:<\/h6>\n\n\n\n

Siden b\u00f8rsnoteringen har Pandora tilbagek\u00f8bt 36,6% af de udest\u00e5ende aktier, s\u00e5 aktietallet er reduceret fra 130 mio. stk. til 82,4 mio. stk. Det svarer til gennemsnitligt tilbagek\u00f8b af 3,4% pr. \u00e5r. Se graf nedenfor:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kilde: Marketscreener.com. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast, ligesom estimater ikke garanterer fremtidig udvikling.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aktiekurs:<\/h6>\n\n\n\n

Pandoras aktiekurs er steget fra 263 kr. ved b\u00f8rsnoteringen i oktober 2010 til 924 kr. pr. 30. november 2023. Det svarer til et afkast p\u00e5 10,1% p.a. f\u00f8r udbytter. Aktiekursen har det meste af tiden handlet i en kurskanal mellem P\/E=10 og P\/E=25. Hvis indtjeningen udvikler sig som forventet, og kursen fortsat handles inden for kurskanalen, kan kursen potentielt blive i niveauet 750-1.875 kr. i december 2025. Men den historiske udvikling er selvf\u00f8lgelig ingen garanti for, hvordan kursen udvikler sig i fremtiden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jeg synes selv, at Pandora fortjener en priss\u00e6tning over gennemsnittet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kilde: Marketscreener.com. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast, ligesom estimater ikke garanterer fremtidig udvikling.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hvad mener du?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeg tror personligt, at markedets aktuelle forventninger er for konservative. Dels tror jeg, oms\u00e6tningen vil overg\u00e5 forventningerne, og dels tror jeg ogs\u00e5, at overskudsgraden stiger mere end forventet. Jeg tror endvidere, at Pandora vil tilbagek\u00f8be flere aktier end forventet. Som f\u00f8lge af disse forhold forventer jeg en r\u00e6kke opjusteringer i de kommende \u00e5r. Hvad mener du?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Og hvad t\u00e6nker du om den globale portef\u00f8lje?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ingen \u00e6ndringer i portef\u00f8ljen<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeg har hidtil kun lavet \u00e9n lille justering af portef\u00f8ljen. Det skete i februar 2023, hvor jeg solgte alle mine Jinhui Shipping<\/a>-aktier og \u00f8gede min investering<\/a> i JD.com. Jeg laver ingen \u00e6ndringer i denne omgang. Tanken er kun at justere portef\u00f8ljen \u00e9n gang om \u00e5ret omkring 31. maj. Jeg forbeholder mig dog ret til at lave \u00e6ndringer l\u00f8bende i forbindelse med statusopg\u00f8relser.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
Se Thorleifs udbytteportef\u00f8lje<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Disclaimer: Thorleif Jackson ejer aktier i alle de n\u00e6vnte selskaber, da der er tale om en rigtig portef\u00f8lje tilh\u00f8rende forfatteren personligt.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dette materiale er udarbejdet af Thorleif Jackson og indeholder information, der kan anses for at v\u00e6re en investeringsanbefaling i henhold til Markedsmisbrugsforordningen (Europa-Parlamentets og R\u00e5dets forordning 596\/2014), dvs. information som anbefaler eller foresl\u00e5r en investeringsstrategi. Nordnet Bank, filial af Nordnet Bank AB, Sverige (Nordnet), har ikke deltaget i udarbejdelsen, gennemg\u00e5et eller foretaget \u00e6ndringer i materialet. Thorleif Jackson har ansvaret for materialets indhold, og at det lever op til g\u00e6ldende lovgivning og regler.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Materialet har ikke v\u00e6ret forelagt de omtalte selskaber.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dette materiale blev offentliggjort f\u00f8rste gang den 6. december 2023 kl. 15:15.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indholdet i dette materiale udg\u00f8r ikke personlig investeringsr\u00e5dgivning. Det er vigtigt, at du som investor tr\u00e6ffer dine investeringsbeslutninger ud fra din egen vurdering af information fra forskellige kilder. Nordnet p\u00e5tager sig intet ansvar for direkte eller indirekte tab som f\u00f8lge af brug af information fra dette materiale. Materialet m\u00e5 ikke gengives uden Nordnets udtrykkelige samtykke.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thorleif Jackson modtager honorar fra Nordnet. Honoraret er aftalt p\u00e5 forh\u00e5nd og er ikke afh\u00e6ngig af materialets indhold eller de virksomheder, som er omtalt heri.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det kan forekomme, at Nordnet har positioner i v\u00e6rdipapirer, der omtales i materialet. En s\u00e5dan beholdning er da alene af administrative hensyn og uden fortjeneste for Nordnet.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nordnet er under tilsyn af Finansinspektionen i Sverige og det danske Finanstilsyn.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Der er altid en risiko forbundet med at investere. Historiske afkast er ikke en garanti for fremtidige afkast. Finansielle instrumenter kan b\u00e5de stige og falde i v\u00e6rdi. Der er en risiko for, at du ikke f\u00e5r de investerede penge tilbage.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Min globale portef\u00f8lje hos Nordnet har de seneste seks m\u00e5neder givet et afkast p\u00e5 11,7%. Det er 6,2% bedre end verdensindekset og 14,7% bedre end C25. Afkastet er trukket op af Pandora, der gav afkast p\u00e5 67,8% i perioden.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40009,"featured_media":56364,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1291],"tags":[2310],"class_list":["post-56341","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-tophistorier"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2023\/12\/Pandora_gaver_1200x430-150x54.jpg","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2023\/12\/Pandora_gaver_1200x430-150x54.jpg 150w, 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