{"id":57030,"date":"2024-01-16T11:46:11","date_gmt":"2024-01-16T10:46:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/?p=57030"},"modified":"2026-03-11T15:39:45","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T14:39:45","slug":"mens-vi-venter-paa-lavere-renter-hvor-skal-aktierne-hen-i-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/mens-vi-venter-paa-lavere-renter-hvor-skal-aktierne-hen-i-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Mens vi venter p\u00e5 lavere renter: Hvor skal aktierne hen i 2024?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Det er nu 5 uger siden, den amerikanske centralbank sendte, hvad investorerne opfattede som startskuddet til ‘risk on’. Siden dengang er der sket meget, men er der mere at hente for investorerne, og kan de se frem til et tronskifte?<\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

P\u00e5 det seneste m\u00f8de i den amerikanske centralbank fik investorerne efter min mening en ‘invitation’ til at \u00f8ge deres risiko i investeringsportef\u00f8ljerne.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hvad er sket?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Aktierne er steget, og markedsrenterne er faldet. Investorerne var allerede i ‘k\u00f8bshum\u00f8r’, og den amerikanske centralbank Federal Reserves meddelelse har blot yderligere forst\u00e6rket den tendens. Det er ikke kun aktieinvestorerne, som har nydt godt af den udvikling, men ogs\u00e5 obligationsejerne og traditionelt blandede investorer med 60\/40-investering<\/a> (60 % aktier<\/a> og 40 % obligationer).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hvorfor er det sket?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Aktierne er ikke blot steget, men stigningerne er blevet bredt mere ud. Investorerne har ikke kun k\u00f8bt mere i de ‘fantastiske 7’ amerikanere (Netflix<\/a>, Tesla<\/a>, Apple<\/a>, Amazon<\/a>, Microsoft<\/a>, Nvidia og Google<\/a>) og de ‘3 fede’ (Novo Nordisk<\/a>, Eli Lilly og Zealand Phama), men har ogs\u00e5 bredt deres investeringspenge i aktier ud til en st\u00f8rre del af aktiemarkedet. Det er b\u00e5de en naturlig udvikling, men ogs\u00e5 et sundhedstegn. Det viser, efter min mening, at interessen for selskaber, som over de seneste \u00e5r er blevet glemt eller sat p\u00e5 pause, er stigende. Det viser en stigende risikolyst og fornemmelse med investorer, som kigger mere individuelt, end udelukkende at k\u00f8be det som \u201dnaboinvestoren\u201d har i kikkerten.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tronskifte?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jo mere risikolysten stiger, jo st\u00f8rre vil mulighederne v\u00e6re for, at de seneste \u00e5rs klare vindere ikke per definition igen vil v\u00e6re der, hvor investorerne f\u00e5r de bedste afkast. I s\u00e5 fald vil det ogs\u00e5 p\u00e5 aktiemarkedet v\u00e6re et tronskifte, hvor der vil v\u00e6re andre end de 7 + de 3, som vil drive udviklingen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hvad venter investorerne p\u00e5?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Investorerne venter p\u00e5, at centralbankerne skal s\u00e6nke renterne. Det vil, hvis forventningerne holder, i l\u00f8bet af de n\u00e6ste 1-2 kvartaler starte en rentecyklus, hvor flere neds\u00e6ttelser i tr\u00e6k vil blive igangsat. F\u00f8rst i USA og siden i Europa. Andre steder i verden kan renteudviklingen se helt anderledes ud. I Kina steg renterne eksempelvis aldrig. Kina har ikke problemer med, at priserne har v\u00e6ret stigende, men k\u00e6mper derimod med faldende priser og svag v\u00e6kst. Det har v\u00e6ret en af \u00e5rsagerne til at de kinesiske aktier har skuffet f\u00e6lt og udviklet sig meget d\u00e5rligt de seneste \u00e5r. N\u00e5r jeg taler om renteneds\u00e6ttelser, t\u00e6nker jeg s\u00e5ledes f\u00f8rst og fremmest p\u00e5 USA og Europa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investorer l\u00f8ber altid i forvejen<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Der er som altid masser af \u201dgode og indlysende grunde\u201d til at v\u00e6re nerv\u00f8s for aktier. Det er business as usual. Aktuelt er det en uafsluttet krig i Ukraine, markant stigende sp\u00e6ndinger i Det R\u00f8de Hav, Kina\/Taiwan, rentefald eller ej, inflationsudvikling og sikkert en del flere faktorer, der fylder. Det er ikke givet, at disse udfordringer g\u00e5r v\u00e6k. Nogen har v\u00e6ret der l\u00e6nge, mens andre er kommet til. Mens vi som individer slider med at v\u00e6nne os til den store usikkerhed, og det er tidskr\u00e6vende, har aktieinvestorerne en tendens til at indprise en del af disse p\u00e5 et meget tidligt tidspunkt for s\u00e5 at komme videre. Det er formentlig ogs\u00e5 sket denne gang. Derfor er det mest sandsynlige, at 2024 byder p\u00e5 masser af geopolitik og usikkerhed, aftagende v\u00e6kst og inflation. Men ogs\u00e5, og det er vigtigst, faldende renter, som alt i alt vil give investorerne alibiet til at k\u00f8be flere aktier og sikre fornuftige afkast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hvad med den svage \u00f8konomi?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Det vil kun v\u00e6re naturligt, hvis nogen er skeptiske over, om 2024 nu ogs\u00e5 bliver godt, fordi \u00f8konomien ikke ser ud til at have det specielt godt med aftagende amerikansk v\u00e6kst, lavv\u00e6kst i Europa og et st\u00f8rre \u00f8konomisk sp\u00f8rgsm\u00e5lstegn og usikkerhed i Kina. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

De ydre og indre faktorer<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Der er to faktorer, som driver aktier. Den f\u00f8rste kalder jeg den \u201dydre\u201d\u201d. Her t\u00e6nker jeg p\u00e5, om den globale v\u00e6kst i samfunds\u00f8konomien tillader virksomhederne at vokse tilstr\u00e6kkelig meget i deres oms\u00e6tning og indtjening. Den ydre faktor er udfordret, men det ved investorerne formentlig og forh\u00e5bentlig. Den \u201dindre\u201d investeringsfaktor er de forhold, som driver investorerne til at k\u00f8be eller s\u00e6lge aktier. Her t\u00e6nker jeg p\u00e5 alternativerne til aktier, som b\u00e5de kan v\u00e6re obligationer eller is\u00e6r kontanter, som for f\u00f8rste gang i et par \u00e5r giver et fornuftigt afkast. Det er is\u00e6r den indre kraft, som jeg t\u00e6nker p\u00e5, n\u00e5r jeg fastholder at 2024 bliver et fornuftigt aktie\u00e5r for investorerne.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mit \u201dBreaking news\u201d fra 14\/12 g\u00e6lder s\u00e5ledes fortsat for 2024 som helhed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ovenst\u00e5ende er ikke en anbefaling til at k\u00f8be eller s\u00e6lge v\u00e6rdipapirer<\/em>.Dette blogindl\u00e6g er udarbejdet til informationsform\u00e5l. Blogindl\u00e6gget udg\u00f8r s\u00e5ledes ikke investeringsm\u00e6ssig eller anden r\u00e5dgivning. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast. Finansielle instrumenter kan b\u00e5de stige og falde i v\u00e6rdi. Der er en risiko for, at du ikke f\u00e5r de investerede penge tilbage<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Det er nu 5 uger siden, den amerikanske centralbank sendte, hvad investorerne opfattede som startskuddet til ‘risk on’. Siden dengang er der sket meget, men er der mere at hente for investorerne, og kan de se frem til et tronskifte? P\u00e5 det seneste m\u00f8de i den amerikanske centralbank fik investorerne efter min mening en ‘invitation’ […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40015,"featured_media":56465,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1291],"tags":[1612,2310],"class_list":["post-57030","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-persunivers","tag-tophistorier"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2023\/12\/Per_gronneblade_1200x430-150x54.jpg","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2023\/12\/Per_gronneblade_1200x430-150x54.jpg 150w, 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