{"id":57763,"date":"2024-02-12T10:43:33","date_gmt":"2024-02-12T09:43:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/?p=57763"},"modified":"2025-07-14T09:22:46","modified_gmt":"2025-07-14T07:22:46","slug":"a-p-moeller-maersk-hvorfor-boelger-det-saa-meget-for-aktien-lige-nu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/a-p-moeller-maersk-hvorfor-boelger-det-saa-meget-for-aktien-lige-nu\/","title":{"rendered":"A.P. M\u00f8ller-M\u00e6rsk: Hvorfor b\u00f8lger det s\u00e5 meget for aktien lige nu?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Bedst som investorerne h\u00e5bede p\u00e5, at de h\u00f8je containerrater skulle redde 2024, s\u00e6nkede A.P. M\u00f8ller-M\u00e6rsk h\u00e5bet med en 2024-guidance, som var langt under det forventede. 2024 og 2025 bliver udfordrende, og det kr\u00e6ver meget t\u00e5lmodige investorer.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sejltur tilbage til november 2023<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Efter 3. kvartalsregnskabet sidste \u00e5r advarede A.P. M\u00f8ller-M\u00e6rsk om, at 4. kvartal og 2024 ville blive udfordrende. Dengang reagerede investorerne ved over nogle uger at sende aktien ned med samlet over 25%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Uro i Det R\u00f8de Hav<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

2024 startede helt anderledes, end 2023 sluttede. I mellemtiden var der efter den 7\/10\/2023 udbrudt krig i Pal\u00e6stina, og i l\u00f8bet af december m\u00e5ned forplantede den uro sig til fragtraterne, som tordnede op til et niveau, som er\/var langt h\u00f8jere end i 2023. \u00c5rsagen var, at bl.a. containerskibe begyndte at sejle syd om Afrika. Det forl\u00e6nger sejlturen og virker som en reduktion af udbud p\u00e5 samme m\u00e5de som \u201dslow steaming\u201d (nedsat hastighed), som er brugt af rederier i perioder med lave rater. Pointen er, at n\u00e5r skibe sejler langsomt spares der br\u00e6ndstof, og samtidig reducerer det udbuddet via forl\u00e6nget sejltid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Problemet er lav eftersp\u00f8rgsel<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Investorerne havde f\u00e5et opfattelsen af, at det at sejle syd om Afrika ville blive det perfekte modsvar til lavv\u00e6kst i Europa og behovet for at f\u00e5 transporteret f\u00e6rre varer. Det var og er dog ikke grunden til, at tiderne er udfordrede. Selv om skibene sejler syd om Afrika bliver der ikke flere varer at sejle med. Den l\u00e6ngere sejltid og de stigende rater kan mildne udfordringerne, men problemerne er ikke kun rater, men de m\u00e6ngder der er at sejle med.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kilde: Nordnet<\/em>. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chokerende prognose<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Forud for hel\u00e5rsregnskabet var det forventeligt, at A.P. M\u00f8ller-M\u00e6rsks finansielle vejrudsigt for 2024, ville byde p\u00e5 en forudsigelse om et udfordrende \u00e5r, men ogs\u00e5 et \u00e5r, hvor Mellem\u00f8sten prism\u00e6ssigt kunne g\u00f8re forskellen. Det h\u00e5b blev slukket med en prognose, hvor det forventede driftsresultat (EBITDA) forventes at ligge mellem 1-6 mia. USD. Til analyseform\u00e5l svarer det til 3,5 mia. USD (midtpunkt), og det var lige under halvdelen af de forventede 7,2 mia. USD. Reaktionen udeblev ikke, og aktiekursen faldt med ca. 15%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Er A.P. M\u00f8ller-M\u00e6rsk en forsigtigper?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Optimisterne vil mene, at A.P. M\u00f8ller-M\u00e6rsk fors\u00f8ger at skabe et godt udgangspunkt som de senere kan opjustere ud fra, og jeg tror der er en snert af sandhed i det. 2024 er kun 1\/12 ung, og der kan stadig n\u00e5 at ske meget i en foranderlig verden. Samtidig er det et faktum, at de skibe som blev bestilt mens raterne var 3-5x under Corona bliver leveret i 2023 og 2024, og det presser et i forvejen svagt fragtmarked yderligere. Den finansielle disciplin er helt som s\u00e6dvanlig d\u00e5rlig i sektoren.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det mistimede aktietilbagek\u00f8b og kapitalanvendelse<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A.P. M\u00f8ller-M\u00e6rsk meddelte, at de s\u00e6tter det 5. aktietilbagek\u00f8b p\u00e5 pause. De 11 mia. som skulle v\u00e6re kapitalanvendt, holdes tilbage. \u00c5rsagen angives til at v\u00e6re usikre tider, og det lyder jo intuitivt korrekt. Desv\u00e6rre er det konsekvensen af en meget uheldig kapitalanvendelse de seneste \u00e5r. Under boom-\u00e5rene boomede aktiekursen ogs\u00e5. Det er helt normalt, at konjunkturer, rater og indtjening topper samtidig. Boom\/bust. Desv\u00e6rre valgte A.P. M\u00f8ller-M\u00e6rsk at bruge en st\u00f8rre del af overskuddet p\u00e5 de 4 foreg\u00e5ende aktietilbagek\u00f8b p\u00e5 et tidspunkt, hvor aktien var meget h\u00f8jt prissat. Rent faktisk blev aktien for 2 \u00e5r siden handlet til 150% af egenkapitalen. Det har historisk v\u00e6ret toppen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tilbage til normalen<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Nu er indtjeningen p\u00e5 vej tilbage til 2019 udgangspunktet. Prisfasts\u00e6ttelsen er der, hvor den normalt plejer at bunde ud mellem 0,4-0,5x bogf\u00f8rt egenkapital. Det er s\u00e5ledes langsigtet efter min mening nu, det er fornuftigt med et aktietilbagek\u00f8bsprogram for langsigtet at skabe v\u00e6rdi.Jeg delte mine tanker om det for snart halvandet \u00e5r siden i Finans med artiklen Er b\u00f8rsnoterede selskaber gode aktiek\u00f8bm\u00e6nd?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

DB Schenker<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Efter hel\u00e5rsregnskabet udtalte topchef Vincent Clerc, at A.P. M\u00f8ller-M\u00e6rsk overvejer at byde p\u00e5 DB Schenker, hvilket er helt naturligt. I det mindste at overveje det. Ved at k\u00f8be en freight forwarder, kan de forts\u00e6tte deres bestr\u00e6belser p\u00e5 at komme t\u00e6ttere p\u00e5 slutkunden og ikke overvejende at v\u00e6re en \u201dudstyrsleverand\u00f8r\u201d som netop freight forwarders \u201dlejer\u201d sig ind p\u00e5. A.P. M\u00f8ller-M\u00e6rsk er formentlig et godt stykke inde i disse overvejsler. Det er en tidskr\u00e6vende proces, som vil tr\u00e6kke topledelsesfokus og kr\u00e6ve meget arbejde. At det ikke blot er en walk-in-the-park understreges af, at der tidligere har v\u00e6ret n\u00e6vnt prissedler p\u00e5 omkring 20 mia. EUR.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aktietilbagek\u00f8b og DB Schenker overvejelser<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A.P. M\u00f8ller-M\u00e6rsk kommer, hvis de beslutter sig for at forf\u00f8lge den proces, til at st\u00e5 head-to-head med DSV<\/a>, som tidligere ad mange omgange har luftet deres ambitioner i relation til DB Schenker. Det kan ikke udelukkes, at suspenderingen af det femte aktietilbagek\u00f8b med en v\u00e6rdi p\u00e5 11 mia. ogs\u00e5 kan have en snert af at \u201dgemme lidt penge til investeringer\u201d i DB Schenker, selvom 11 mia. i den samlede henseende ikke g\u00f8r udslaget.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lav prisfasts\u00e6ttelse kr\u00e6ver t\u00e5lmodige investorer<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Prisfasts\u00e6ttelsen er indiskutabelt historisk lav. Optimisterne vil mene, at den n\u00e6ppe g\u00e5r ret meget lavere, hvilket meget vel v\u00e6re rigtigt. P\u00e5 den anden side er det en risiko, at den lave prisfasts\u00e6ttelse kan forblive lav og udfordre de t\u00e5lmodige investorer. Det ville have v\u00e6ret rart med et st\u00f8rre aktietilbagek\u00f8bsprogram p\u00e5 ca. 6 % af aktuel markedsv\u00e6rdi. Nu risikerer investorerne, at aktien driver rundt p\u00e5 \u00e5bent hav i en rum tid. 11 mia. i \u201daktiereserve\u201d ville have v\u00e6ret rettidig omhu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ovenst\u00e5ende er ikke en anbefaling til at k\u00f8be eller s\u00e6lge v\u00e6rdipapirer<\/em>.Dette blogindl\u00e6g er udarbejdet til informationsform\u00e5l. Blogindl\u00e6gget udg\u00f8r s\u00e5ledes ikke investeringsm\u00e6ssig eller anden r\u00e5dgivning. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast. Finansielle instrumenter kan b\u00e5de stige og falde i v\u00e6rdi. Der er en risiko for, at du ikke f\u00e5r de investerede penge tilbage.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bedst som investorerne h\u00e5bede p\u00e5, at de h\u00f8je containerrater skulle redde 2024, s\u00e6nkede A.P. M\u00f8ller-M\u00e6rsk h\u00e5bet med en 2024-guidance, som var langt under det forventede. 2024 og 2025 bliver udfordrende, og det kr\u00e6ver meget t\u00e5lmodige investorer.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40015,"featured_media":57766,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1291],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-57763","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/02\/OX8A3011_1200x430-150x54.png","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/02\/OX8A3011_1200x430-150x54.png 150w, 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