{"id":58076,"date":"2024-02-27T10:33:39","date_gmt":"2024-02-27T09:33:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/?p=58076"},"modified":"2024-02-27T12:17:03","modified_gmt":"2024-02-27T11:17:03","slug":"kina-mangler-handlemuligheder-bliver-det-investorernes-redning","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/kina-mangler-handlemuligheder-bliver-det-investorernes-redning\/","title":{"rendered":"Kina mangler handlemuligheder. Bliver det investorernes redning?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Kina er p\u00e5 alles l\u00e6ber, n\u00e5r det kommer til at udpege det land, hvor afkastforventningerne har skuffet mest de seneste \u00e5r. Udfordringerne er mange og tydelige, men m\u00e5ske er der h\u00e5b at hente, n\u00e5r de politiske handlemuligheder er f\u00e5.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Store Kina er investeringsm\u00e6ssigt strukturelt underlegen<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Kina g\u00e5r sine egne veje og bestemmer selv. At v\u00e6re verdens mest folkerige nation sammen med Indien giver en vis selvforst\u00e5else. Kina t\u00e6nker og investerer langsigtet og har st\u00f8rrelsen og styrken til at vente p\u00e5 de gode tider. Jeg har ikke tal p\u00e5, hvor mange gange jeg over \u00e5rene har h\u00f8rt, hvor stort et mulighedernes land, Kina er. Kina er indiskutabelt stort, men de \u00f8konomiske investeringsmuligheder har v\u00e6ret langt st\u00f8rre i USA, som har en befolkning p\u00e5 \u00bc af Kina. Den forskel er strukturel, og \u00e6ndres ikke p\u00e5 kort sigt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kina er st\u00f8rre, men mulighederne er mindre<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

USA er mulighedernes land. Det som er limen mellem den gode ide og succes er adgangen til risikovillig kapital og investorer. Kina er st\u00f8rre, men mulighederne er mindre. Hvis den statslige overdommer ikke synes om det, som sker, ja s\u00e5 sker det ikke. Det er en af de afg\u00f8rende forskelle p\u00e5 afkastm\u00e6ssig succes og fiasko, men ikke den eneste.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

L\u00e6ringen fra Huawei<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Bliver kinesiske virksomheder stuerene i teknologisk forstand? Det er det gode sp\u00f8rgsm\u00e5l, som mange investorer formentlig stiller sig selv. Nogle vil m\u00e5ske h\u00e6vde det f\u00f8rst og fremmest handler om politik, men jeg vil mene, at det sp\u00f8rgsm\u00e5l har meget med risikopr\u00e6mie at g\u00f8re. T\u00e6nk blot p\u00e5 Huawei som netv\u00e6rksleverand\u00f8r hos teleselskaberne.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dette indl\u00e6g handler ikke om, hvorvidt Huawei skal v\u00e6re leverand\u00f8r, men de overvejelser som europ\u00e6iske og amerikanske teleselskaber havde, da overvejelser om et stort kinesisk selskab kunne v\u00e6re en del af en vigtig infrastruktur, blev besvaret med et klart \u201dnej\u201d. Instruksen om, at et selskab skal udlevere data til den kinesiske stat, hvis staten kr\u00e6ver det, giver helt naturligt lande uden for Kina kolde f\u00f8dder og mange, bange overvejelser.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Baidu<\/a> vs. Google<\/a><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Baidu er Kinas svar p\u00e5 Google. Baidu er ligesom Google meget mere og andet end \u201dblot\u201d en s\u00f8gemaskine med den st\u00f8rste indenlandske markedsandel. De er ogs\u00e5 aktie i AI, selvk\u00f8rende biler og meget andet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Baidus naturlige \u201dhjemmemarked\u201d er Kina, og det er meget st\u00f8rre end Googles hjemmemarked, som er USA. I hvert fald hvis man m\u00e5ler p\u00e5 antal indbyggere. Alligevel er markedsv\u00e6rdien af Baidu kun ca. 2% af Googles. Hvorfor s\u00e5 det?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3 store forskelle p\u00e5 Baidu og Google<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Der er mange forskelle og \u00e5rsager. Her vil jeg pege p\u00e5 3:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. For det f\u00f8rste er det amerikanske kommercielle marked mange gange st\u00f8rre end det kinesiske.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. For det andet er prisfasts\u00e6ttelsen af Google m\u00e5lt p\u00e5 l\u00f8bende P\/E meget st\u00f8rre.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. Men vigtigst er, at Baidu opererer i Kina og (med det som vi ved i dag) kun<\/em> Kina. Deres hjemmemarked er nok stort, men til geng\u00e6ld ekstremt reguleret. Kan du forestille dig, at vi i USA\/Europa vil tillade Baidu at indsamle data og dermed v\u00e6re en del af den vigtig infrastruktur, som de kan blive tvunget til at overlevere til den kinesiske stat, hvis staten kr\u00e6ver det? Det kan jeg i hvert fald ikke.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Kinas hjemmebanefordel under forandring<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Den kinesiske \u00f8konomi har over \u00e5rtier v\u00e6ret lagt an p\u00e5 at v\u00e6re verdens v\u00e6rksted med overflod af billig arbejdskraft. Det har givet v\u00e6kst og velstand, men den position er under forandring. Andre lande byder sig til og tilbyder billig arbejdskraft og \u201dmere til\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Det \u201dmere\u201d er blandt andet G\u2019et i b\u00e6redygtighedskriterierne ESG. Alts\u00e5 selskabernes governance. Selskaber som er placeret i lande, der opfattes som stabile regimer uden et autokratisk \u201det-parti-demokrati\u201d, har bedre muligheder for at tiltr\u00e6kke investeringer fra andre lande, da disse opererer p\u00e5 mere forudsigelige vilk\u00e5r, set med investorernes \u00f8jne.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Ejendomssektor er udfordringen og ikke l\u00f8sningen<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Lige s\u00e5 l\u00e6nge som jeg kan mindes, har kineserne investeret deres overskydende kapital og opsparing i ejendomssektoren. I prioriteret r\u00e6kkef\u00f8lge har ejendomme, kontanter, andre investeringer og aktier f\u00e5et adgang til de mange penge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Jeg ved ikke om det slutter nu, men jeg tror, at ejendomssektoren er en del af udfordringerne og ikke l\u00f8sningen. At komme flere penge ind i at bygge flere boliger, som der m\u00e5ske\/m\u00e5ske ikke er k\u00f8bere og lejere til, virker som en meget d\u00e5rlig pengeanbringelse. Den vej kan kineserne t\u00e6nkes at f\u00f8lge, men kineserne er ikke dumme. De har bare endnu ikke opdaget, at det er en blind vej.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Det vil v\u00e6re naturligt, hvis man i Kina \u00e6ndrer kurs. Om ikke f\u00f8r, s\u00e5 n\u00e5r man indser, at mere af det samme virker som kviksand. Et ensidigt sats p\u00e5 ejendomssektoren har udspillet sin rolle, og da der er en overgr\u00e6nse for, hvor meget man kan satse i Macau, tror jeg aktiemarkedet er n\u00f8glen til kinesisk velstand de kommende \u00e5r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Drejer den private opsparing mod aktier?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Det kr\u00e6ver ikke kun statslig involvering af fonde, som skal k\u00f8be aktier og cementere en kursbund. Det kr\u00e6ver incitamenter af mange slags, og det kr\u00e6ver, at kinesiske aktier ikke bliver en spilleplade for de lokale kinesere. Et sted hvor en betydelig del af den private opsparing kan blive kanaliseret hen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Udlandet har kapituleret<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Udenlandske investorer har smidt deres aktier over bord. Det skyldes ikke faldende attraktion p\u00e5 grund af traditionelle n\u00f8gletal, som v\u00e6kst og indtjening, men i h\u00f8j grad kombinationen af mange faktorer; herunder ogs\u00e5 G\u2019et i ESG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Foruds\u00e6tningerne for at tiderne, og aktieafkast, i Kina bliver bedre er d\u00e5rlige, siger pessimisterne. Tv\u00e6rtimod er de meget gode, siger optimisterne, som p\u00e5peger, at det snart ikke kan g\u00e5 v\u00e6rre; at isolationspolitikken er en blindgyde; at prisfasts\u00e6ttelsen er lav og at Kina mangler handlemuligheder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Ekstrem home bias<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Kinesiske aktier har over tid v\u00e6ret \u201dhjemmemarkedsspil\u201d med ekstrem home bias<\/em> af mange \u00e5rsager. Stigende aktiekurser<\/a> har v\u00e6ret drevet af kinesiske indl\u00e6ndinges lyst til at k\u00f8be flere aktier og ikke af udenlandske investorers l\u00e6ngsel efter \u201dMade in China\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Forbliver kinesiske aktier for billige?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Der er ikke \u00e9n, men mange foruds\u00e6tninger, som skal falde p\u00e5 plads for at give de kinesiske aktier et comeback. Prisfasts\u00e6ttelsen er lav og taknemmelig, men s\u00e5 l\u00e6nge flow of funds ikke g\u00e5r \u00f8st, men vestp\u00e5, forbliver aktierne billige og uinteressante for de fleste.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Hvis der skal komme en positiv forandring, kan det komme fra en \u00e6ndring i:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    1. governance,<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    2. risikopr\u00e6mien, eller<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    3. politisk prioritering af investering i aktier<\/a> som en foretrukken m\u00e5de at spare op p\u00e5.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

      Ovenst\u00e5ende er ikke en anbefaling til at k\u00f8be eller s\u00e6lge v\u00e6rdipapirer<\/em>.Dette blogindl\u00e6g er udarbejdet til informationsform\u00e5l. Blogindl\u00e6gget udg\u00f8r s\u00e5ledes ikke investeringsm\u00e6ssig eller anden r\u00e5dgivning. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast. Finansielle instrumenter kan b\u00e5de stige og falde i v\u00e6rdi. Der er en risiko for, at du ikke f\u00e5r de investerede penge tilbage.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Kina er p\u00e5 alles l\u00e6ber, n\u00e5r det kommer til at udpege det land, hvor afkastforventningerne har skuffet mest de seneste \u00e5r. Udfordringerne er mange og tydelige, men m\u00e5ske er der h\u00e5b at hente, n\u00e5r de politiske handlemuligheder er f\u00e5.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40015,"featured_media":58079,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1291],"tags":[2310],"class_list":["post-58076","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-tophistorier"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/02\/Kina_270224JPG_200x430-150x54.jpg","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/02\/Kina_270224JPG_200x430-150x54.jpg 150w, 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