{"id":58406,"date":"2024-03-12T14:16:09","date_gmt":"2024-03-12T13:16:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/?p=58406"},"modified":"2024-03-14T08:52:43","modified_gmt":"2024-03-14T07:52:43","slug":"fortsaetter-opturen-for-novo-nordisk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/fortsaetter-opturen-for-novo-nordisk\/","title":{"rendered":"Forts\u00e6tter opturen for Novo Nordisk?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Novo Nordisk<\/a>-aktien er steget til nye h\u00f8jder og er blevet en darling for alle investorer i hele verden. N\u00e6rmer vi os et punkt, hvor euforien er ved at f\u00e5 overh\u00e5nd, og aktien st\u00e5r foran en nedtur, eller kan opturen forts\u00e6tte?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>



Analysen er skrevet af Thorleif Jackson, direkt\u00f8r og portef\u00f8ljeforvalter i investeringsselskabet Jackson FamilieInvest.<\/p><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Siden fusionen i 1989 er Novo Nordisks indtjening steget HVERT \u00c5R. Grafen nedenfor viser udviklingen i indtjeningen pr. aktie \u00e5r for \u00e5r siden 1979.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indtjening pr. aktie, EPS:<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kilder: \u00c5rsrapporter (historiske tal) og MarketScreener.com (estimater). Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast, ligesom estimater ikke garanterer fremtidig udvikling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EPS er vokset fra 0,125 kr. i 1990 til 18,62 kr. i 2023, svarende til en gennemsnitlig tilv\u00e6kst p\u00e5 16,4% p.a. V\u00e6ksten har ikke v\u00e6ret konstant. Se nedenst\u00e5ende graf.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EPS-v\u00e6kst:<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kilder: \u00c5rsrapporter (historiske tal) og MarketScreener.com (estimater). Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast, ligesom estimater ikke garanterer fremtidig udvikling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I \u00e5rene 2017, 2018 og 2019 var v\u00e6ksten eksempelvis helt nede omkring 3% p.a. V\u00e6ksten accelererede i 2020, 2021 og 2022, og v\u00e6ksten gik helt grassat med 52% i 2023. Markedet forventer pt., at EPS vokser fra 18,62 kr. i 2023 til 32,81 kr. i 2026. Det svarer til fornyet v\u00e6kst p\u00e5 ca. 21% p.a. V\u00e6ksten er is\u00e6r drevet af et st\u00e6rkt salg af selskabets fedmemedicin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kurs:<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Novo Nordisk-aktien har de seneste 20 \u00e5r det meste af tiden v\u00e6ret prissat i en forholdsvist smal kurskanal mellem P\/E=17 og P\/E=30:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kilder: \u00c5rsrapporter (historisk indtjening), MarketScreener.com (estimater) og Yahoo! Finance (aktiekurser<\/a>). Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast, ligesom estimater ikke garanterer fremtidig udvikling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indtil 2022 var Novo Nordisks absolut h\u00f8jeste priss\u00e6tning P\/E2000<\/sub>=38 i januar 2001. Efterf\u00f8lgende faldt kursen n\u00e6sten 50%. Aktien var ogs\u00e5 prissat over kanalen i 2015 og faldt efterf\u00f8lgende 40% fra kurs 200 kr. til kurs 120 kr. Netop nu er Novo Nordisk med kurs 913 kr. rekordh\u00f8jt prissat svarende til P\/E2023<\/sub>=49 og P\/E2024<\/sub>=40.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kan forventningerne blive indfriet?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Hvis indtjeningen udvikler sig som forventet af markedet lige nu (EPS2026=32,81 kr.), og Novo Nordisk om sm\u00e5 tre \u00e5r igen handles inden for kurskanalen (PE=17-30), kan vi forvente en aktiekurs i december 2026 i niveauet 558-984 kr. Det kursm\u00e5l levner ikke meget upside. Det er selvf\u00f8lgelig muligt, at forventningerne opjusteres i de kommende \u00e5r, ligesom det er muligt, at priss\u00e6tningen forbliver p\u00e5 det nuv\u00e6rende niveau eller stiger yderligere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Men det mest sandsynlige for den konservative investor er trods alt, at forventningerne mere eller mindre indfries. Det vil nok skuffe en del investorer, der forventer mere, og resultatet kan blive, at aktiekursen falder lidt tilbage, og igen handles inden for kurskanalen. Hvis man tror p\u00e5 dette scenarie, kan man overveje, om mn vil tage lidt gevinst hjem, hvis man allerede har mange Novo Nordisk-aktier i portef\u00f8ljen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mit umiddelbare g\u00e6t er imidlertid, at indtjeningen vil blive realiseret eller overg\u00e5et. Og mit g\u00e6t er ogs\u00e5, at Novo Nordisk vil forblive en darling blandt alverdens investorer i de kommende \u00e5r. Mit bedste g\u00e6t er, at priss\u00e6tningen vil forblive i niveauet P\/E=40 til P\/E=50 de n\u00e6ste 2-3 \u00e5r. Hvis indtjeningen udvikler sig som forventet, og priss\u00e6tningen forbliver, hvor den er, kan vi forvente en kurs i niveauet 1.300-1.650 kr. i december 2026. Det giver et kurspotentiale p\u00e5 42-81% p\u00e5 33 m\u00e5neder eller 14-24% p.a. Dertil kommer udbytter p\u00e5 ca. 1% p.a., s\u00e5 det samlede forventede afkast kan blive s\u00e5 h\u00f8jt som 15-25% p.a.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hvad mener du om Novo Nordisks kursridt mod skyerne? Tror du, opturen forts\u00e6tter, eller er det kun et sp\u00f8rgsm\u00e5l om tid, hvorn\u00e5r aktien krakker 40-50% som i 2001 og 2016?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dette er ikke en k\u00f8bsanbefaling eller en salgsanbefaling. Kursen p\u00e5 Novo Nordisk kan stige eller falde, og l\u00e6seren er selv ansvarlig for sine handler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thorleif Jackson ejer selv aktier i Novo Nordisk, der b\u00e5de indg\u00e5r i Jackson FamilieInvests portef\u00f8lje og i Fundamentalportef\u00f8ljen. Novo Nordisk er ogs\u00e5 den st\u00f8rste position i Thorleif Jacksons pensionsdepot.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dette materiale er udarbejdet af Thorleif Jackson og indeholder information, der kan anses for at v\u00e6re en investeringsanbefaling i henhold til Markedsmisbrugsforordningen (Europa-Parlamentets og R\u00e5dets forordning 596\/2014), dvs. information som anbefaler eller foresl\u00e5r en investeringsstrategi. Nordnet Bank, filial af Nordnet Bank AB, Sverige (Nordnet), har ikke deltaget i udarbejdelsen, gennemg\u00e5et eller foretaget \u00e6ndringer i materialet. Thorleif Jackson har ansvaret for materialets indhold, og at det lever op til g\u00e6ldende lovgivning og regler.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Materialet har ikke v\u00e6ret forelagt de omtalte selskaber.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dette materiale blev offentliggjort f\u00f8rste gang den 12. marts 2024 kl. 14:15.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indholdet i dette materiale udg\u00f8r ikke personlig investeringsr\u00e5dgivning. Det er vigtigt, at du som investor tr\u00e6ffer dine investeringsbeslutninger ud fra din egen vurdering af information fra forskellige kilder. Nordnet p\u00e5tager sig intet ansvar for direkte eller indirekte tab som f\u00f8lge af brug af information fra dette materiale. Materialet m\u00e5 ikke gengives uden Nordnets udtrykkelige samtykke.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thorleif Jackson modtager honorar fra Nordnet. Honoraret er aftalt p\u00e5 forh\u00e5nd og er ikke afh\u00e6ngig af materialets indhold eller de virksomheder, som er omtalt heri.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det kan forekomme, at Nordnet har positioner i v\u00e6rdipapirer, der omtales i materialet. En s\u00e5dan beholdning er da alene af administrative hensyn og uden fortjeneste for Nordnet.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nordnet er under tilsyn af Finansinspektionen i Sverige og det danske Finanstilsyn.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Der er altid en risiko forbundet med at investere. Historiske afkast er ikke en garanti for fremtidige afkast. Finansielle instrumenter kan b\u00e5de stige og falde i v\u00e6rdi. Der er en risiko for, at du ikke f\u00e5r de investerede penge tilbage.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Novo Nordisk-aktien er steget til nye h\u00f8jder og er blevet en darling for alle investorer i hele verden. N\u00e6rmer vi os et punkt, hvor euforien er ved at f\u00e5 overh\u00e5nd, og aktien st\u00e5r foran en nedtur, eller kan opturen forts\u00e6tte?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40009,"featured_media":58477,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1291],"tags":[3336,2310],"class_list":["post-58406","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-aktieinspiration","tag-tophistorier"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/03\/lab_test_1200x430-1-150x54.jpg","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/03\/lab_test_1200x430-1-150x54.jpg 150w, 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