{"id":58782,"date":"2024-04-10T09:14:35","date_gmt":"2024-04-10T07:14:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/?p=58782"},"modified":"2025-10-21T13:51:24","modified_gmt":"2025-10-21T11:51:24","slug":"kan-small-cap-outperforme-mastodonterne-i-ar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/kan-small-cap-outperforme-mastodonterne-i-ar\/","title":{"rendered":"Kan Small Cap outperforme mastodonterne i \u00e5r?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Skal man investere i mindre b\u00f8rsnoterede selskaber eller de helt store mastodonter? Over de seneste 3-4 \u00e5r har svaret v\u00e6ret ret tydeligt for amerikanske aktier<\/a>. De store mastodonter i S&P 500-indekset har overperformet de mindre aktier \u2013 ogs\u00e5 kaldet Small Cap \u2013 i S&P 600-indekset. Faktisk ser vi lige nu den st\u00f8rste forskydning i mere end 10 \u00e5r. Men kan tendensen v\u00e6re ved at vende?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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S&P 500<\/strong> er et af de st\u00f8rste aktieindeks i verden. Det best\u00e5r af 500 amerikanske aktier og t\u00e6ller nogle af de st\u00f8rste selskaber i USA, ogs\u00e5 kaldet Large Cap, og derfor ogs\u00e5 de st\u00f8rste p\u00e5 verdensplan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 600<\/strong> er et indeks med de mindre amerikanske aktier, de s\u00e5kaldte Small Cap. For at v\u00e6re en del af dette indeks skal selskabet have en markedsv\u00e6rdi p\u00e5 mellem $900 millioner og $5800 millioner og samtidig leve op til andre, mere tekniske kriterier. L\u00e6r ogs\u00e5 om Small og Large Cap i Nordnet Academy<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

St\u00f8rste forskydning i mere end 10 \u00e5r<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

M\u00e5lt p\u00e5 afkast havde det n\u00e6sten v\u00e6ret ligegyldigt, om du havde investeret i S&P 500-selskaber eller de mindre selskaber i S&P 600 fra starten af 2014 til midten af 2018. Faktisk med en lille fordel til Small Cap. Det har dog senere \u00e6ndret sig markant. Men den store forskel, vi ser i dag, kan m\u00e5ske ogs\u00e5 v\u00e6re et tegn p\u00e5 muligheder i fremtiden.<\/p>\n\n\n

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\"\"\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

Kilde: spglobal.com<\/a>. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zoomer vi ind p\u00e5 de seneste 3-5 \u00e5r, ser det samlede afkast for hvert indeks meget forskelligt ud. Som det ses i tabellen, har de mindre aktier i S&P 600-indekset oplevet n\u00e6sten tre stagnerende \u00e5r i markedet, mens de st\u00f8rste selskaber er buldret afsted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indeks<\/strong><\/td>Afkast seneste 3 \u00e5r<\/strong><\/td>Afkast seneste 5 \u00e5r<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
S&P 500<\/td>34,2%<\/td>86,3%<\/td><\/tr>
S&P 600<\/td>3,3%<\/td>42,5%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kilde: spglobal.com<\/a>. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Over de seneste fem \u00e5r har S&P 500 leveret et afkast, der er mere end dobbelt s\u00e5 h\u00f8jt som S&P 600. Det giver en situation, hvor vi i dag ser den st\u00f8rste forskydning i mere end 10 \u00e5r mellem disse to aktiegrupper. Forskydningen g\u00f8r, at de store S&P 500-aktier samlet handler til en noget h\u00f8jere v\u00e6rdis\u00e6tning m\u00e5lt p\u00e5 de underliggende selskabers overskud pr. aktie i forhold til pris pr. aktie (P\/E).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u00e5ler vi p\u00e5 en iShares ETF<\/a>, som tracker dette indeks, handler den pr. den 22. marts til en P\/E p\u00e5 26,2. Det kan vi sammenligne med en iShares ETF, som i stedet tracker de mindre S&P 600-aktier. Den ETF handles til en P\/E p\u00e5 15,2 pr. den 22. marts. Lige nu betaler markedet alts\u00e5 en premium (merpris) p\u00e5 over 70% mere pr. overskudskrone i S&P 500-aktierne (kilde: ishares.com<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nye udsigter med renteneds\u00e6ttelser?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Udviklingen i amerikansk \u00f8konomi og meldinger fra centralbankerne om mulige renteneds\u00e6ttelser kan give nye muligheder for Small Cap. De er typisk mere f\u00f8lsomme end de store, robuste Large Cap-selskaber, og lavere renter er derfor s\u00e6rligt godt nyt for dem. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Der er derfor mulighed for, at det kan skabe grobund for \u00f8get v\u00e6kst i segmentet og en \u00f8get risikoappetit, hvis renterne igen kommer ned. Det kan der v\u00e6re tegn p\u00e5, at de g\u00f8r.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Kilde: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, 20\/3\/2024<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ovenst\u00e5ende viser den seneste prognose, hvor alle medlemmers forventninger i den amerikanske centralbank (FED) hvert \u00e5r er repr\u00e6senteret med en bl\u00e5 prik. Det ses ret tydeligt, at der gennemsnitligt forventes l\u00f8bende renteneds\u00e6ttelser frem mod 2026. Renten i USA ligger i dag p\u00e5 niveauet 5,25-5,50%. De gennemsnitlige forventninger fra bankens medlemmer er, at renten i 2024 vil v\u00e6re ca. 4,6%, mens den i 2025 lyder p\u00e5 3,9% og i 2026 3,1%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Retningen for renten peger derfor ned, hvilket kan v\u00e6re positivt for de mindre virksomheder. Det er dog ikke i alle sektorer i markedet, at de indtil videre har haltet efter de store. Og derfor kan der m\u00e5ske v\u00e6re en pointe i at segmentere markedet yderligere for at se, hvor der eventuelt kan gemme sig potentiale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ikke alle Small Cap-aktier halter efter markedet<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Ser vi p\u00e5 de 10 st\u00f8rste positioner i S&P 500 og S&P 600, er der udover en meget stor forskel i v\u00e6rdis\u00e6tningen ogs\u00e5 forskel p\u00e5, hvor stor indflydelse de st\u00f8rste aktier har p\u00e5 det samlede afkast i indekset. Og det er ikke ligegyldigt, n\u00e5r vi sammenligner Small Cap- med Large Cap-selskaber. Det er nemlig vigtigt at se p\u00e5 sammens\u00e6tningen af \u201cindekset\u201d, n\u00e5r man sammenligner afkast og muligheder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Top-10 i S&P 500<\/h5>\n\n\n\n
Virksomhed<\/strong><\/td>Sektor<\/strong><\/td>P\/E <\/strong>forward<\/strong><\/td>V\u00e6gt i indeks<\/strong><\/td>Afkast 5 \u00e5r<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
1. Microsoft<\/a><\/td>Information Technology<\/td>34,7<\/td>7,16%<\/td>257%<\/td><\/tr>
2. Apple<\/a><\/td>Information Technology<\/td>25,6<\/td>5,65%<\/td>257%<\/td><\/tr>
3. Nvidia<\/td>Information Technology<\/td>38,3<\/td>5,35%<\/td>1962%<\/td><\/tr>
4. Amazon<\/a><\/td>Consumer Discretionary<\/td>42,7<\/td>3,75%<\/td>100%<\/td><\/tr>
5. Alphabet<\/a><\/td>Communication<\/td>22,1<\/td>3,72%<\/td>159%<\/td><\/tr>
6. Meta<\/a> Platforms<\/td>Communication<\/td>25,2<\/td>2,52%<\/td>197%<\/td><\/tr>
7. Hathaway<\/td>Financials<\/td>23,0<\/td>1,70%<\/td>105%<\/td><\/tr>
8. Eli Lilly<\/td>Health Care<\/td>62,0<\/td>1,41%<\/td>497%<\/td><\/tr>
9. Broadcom<\/td>Information Technology<\/td>26,9<\/td>1,36%<\/td>343%<\/td><\/tr>
10. JPMorgan Chase & Co<\/td>Financials<\/td>12,2<\/td>1,28%<\/td>93%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kilde: TIKR Terminal, 22. marts 2024. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I S&P 500-indekset fylder de 10 st\u00f8rste aktier samlet 33,94%. Derfor har de 10 aktier meget stor indflydelse p\u00e5, hvordan dette indeks klarer sig. I S&P 600-indekset fylder de 10 st\u00f8rste aktier kun 5,54% af det samlede indeks, og de har derfor en markant mindre effekt p\u00e5 indeksets performance. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lidt firkantet kan vi sige, at S&P 500 er meget afh\u00e6ngigt af de 10 st\u00f8rste aktier, hvor de 10 st\u00f8rste aktier i S&P 600 har lavere indflydelse p\u00e5 det samlede afkast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Top-10 i S&P 600<\/h5>\n\n\n\n
Virksomhed<\/strong><\/td>Sektor<\/strong><\/td>P\/E <\/strong>forwar<\/strong>d<\/td>V\u00e6gt i indeks<\/strong><\/td>Afkast 5 \u00e5r<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
1. Fabrinet<\/td>Information Technology<\/td>21,9<\/td>0,6%<\/td>256%<\/td><\/tr>
2. Ensign Group<\/td>Health Care<\/td>22,8<\/td>0,6%<\/td>158%<\/td><\/tr>
3. Abercrombie & Fitch<\/td>Consumer Discretionary<\/td>15,7<\/td>0,58%<\/td>345%<\/td><\/tr>
4. SPS Commerce<\/td>Information Technology<\/td>57,6<\/td>0,55%<\/td>241%<\/td><\/tr>
5. ATI<\/td>Materials<\/td>21,5<\/td>0,53%<\/td>96%<\/td><\/tr>
6. Mueller Industries<\/td>Industrials<\/td>14,8<\/td>0,53%<\/td>238%<\/td><\/tr>
7. Installed Building Products<\/td>Consumer Discretionary<\/td>22,0<\/td>0,52%<\/td>426%<\/td><\/tr>
8. Meritage<\/td>Consumer Discretionary<\/td>9,5<\/td>0,52%<\/td>273%<\/td><\/tr>
9. Boise Cascade<\/td>Industrials<\/td>13,5<\/td>0,52%<\/td>461%<\/td><\/tr>
10. AAON<\/td>Industrials<\/td>37,5<\/td>0,5%<\/td>181%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kilde: TIKR Terminal, 22. marts 2024. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ovenst\u00e5ende tabel viser tydeligt, at selvom S&P 600-indekset har haltet markant efter S&P 500 som helhed over de seneste tre og fem \u00e5r, s\u00e5 er der alts\u00e5 aktier i Small Cap-segmentet, som har klaret sig fint.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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P\/E<\/strong> kigger tilbage og m\u00e5ler p\u00e5 den realiserede indtjening pr. aktie i seneste regnskabs\u00e5r eller de seneste 12 m\u00e5neder. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Forward P\/E<\/strong> kigger frem og m\u00e5ler ud fra den forventede indtjening pr. aktie i nuv\u00e6rende regnskabs\u00e5r eller de kommende 12 m\u00e5neder.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Den helt store forskel p\u00e5 de to indeks er, hvor meget denne performance har bidraget til indeksets samlede v\u00e6kst. Hvis vi v\u00e6gter alle selskaber lige h\u00f8jt, har de st\u00f8rste aktier i S&P 500-indekset givet et gennemsnitligt afkast over de seneste fem \u00e5r p\u00e5 397%, hvor de ti st\u00f8rste aktier i S&P 600-indekset har givet et gennemsnitligt afkast p\u00e5 268%. Fjerner vi Nvidia og det enorme afkast p\u00e5 over 1962% i perioden, s\u00e5 har de resterende ni selskaber givet et gennemsnitligt afkast p\u00e5 223%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Selvom der er stor forskel i afkastet for hvert indeks over de seneste fem \u00e5r, er det alts\u00e5 ikke alle Small Cap-aktier, der halter efter markedet. Samtidig er afkastet i det store S&P 500-indeks meget centreret omkring f\u00e5 selskaber.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hvor kan der gemme sig ekstra potentiale?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Der er stor forskel p\u00e5 de sektorer, der fylder i de to indeks. Det er ogs\u00e5 vigtigt at tage med i vurderingen af potentialet i de to aktiegrupper som helhed, og n\u00e5r man ser tilbage p\u00e5 de seneste \u00e5rs performance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sektorfordeling:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

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I S&P 600-indekset er det sektorer som industri, finans og forbrugsgoder, som har den st\u00f8rste v\u00e6gt, mens de mere teknologitunge sektorer som informationsteknologi og kommunikationservices fylder noget mindre. I S&P 500-indekset er den st\u00f8rste sektor med l\u00e6ngder informationsteknologi og derefter kommer finans og sundhedssektoren. At der er s\u00e5 stor forskel p\u00e5, hvor meget informationsteknologi fylder i de to indeks, er en vigtig faktor, n\u00e5r vi sammenligner b\u00e5de afkast og potentiale.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Kilde: spglobal.com<\/a>. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

De mindre teknologiaktier er specielt rentef\u00f8lsomme, og det er med til at skabe en meget stor forskel i performance og v\u00e6rdis\u00e6tning. Denne sektor i S&P 500-indekset har over de seneste tre \u00e5r leveret et \u00e5rligt afkast p\u00e5 hele 17,8%, mens samme sektor blandt de mindre S&P 600-aktier kun har leveret 0,23% pr. \u00e5r. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

At informationsteknologi fylder s\u00e5 meget i S&P 500, og at den sektor samtidig har klaret sig s\u00e5 godt blandt de store aktier, er med til at forklare en del af forskellen mellem de store og de sm\u00e5 indeks. Samme store forskel i de seneste par \u00e5r ser man i sektorerne sundhed og kommunikationsservices, der ogs\u00e5 typisk kan v\u00e6re rentef\u00f8lsomme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hvordan har sektorer klaret sig de seneste \u00e5r?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

For at give et overblik over, hvordan hver sektor har klaret sig de seneste tre \u00e5r, har jeg her sammenlignet det \u00e5rlige afkast pr. sektor i hvert indeks:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/td>S&P 500 3-\u00e5rigt afkast p.a.<\/strong><\/td>S&P 600 3-\u00e5rigt afkast p.a.<\/strong><\/td>Difference (%-point)<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Industrials<\/td>8,6%<\/td>10,9%<\/td>2,3<\/td><\/tr>
Financials<\/td>7,4%<\/td>-4,4%<\/td>11,8<\/td><\/tr>
Consumer Discretionary<\/td>3,5%<\/td>-0,9%<\/td>4,4<\/td><\/tr>
Information Technology<\/td>17,9%<\/td>0,8%<\/td>17,1<\/td><\/tr>
Health Care<\/td>8,2%<\/td>-10,6%<\/td>18,8<\/td><\/tr>
Real Estate<\/td>0,2%<\/td>-7,9%<\/td>8,1<\/td><\/tr>
Materials<\/td>5,8%<\/td>7,0%<\/td>1,2<\/td><\/tr>
Energy<\/td>24,9%<\/td>21,0%<\/td>3,9<\/td><\/tr>
Consumer Staples<\/td>5,2%<\/td>3,6%<\/td>1,6<\/td><\/tr>
Communication Services<\/td>5,9%<\/td>-9,2%<\/td>15,1<\/td><\/tr>
Utilities<\/td>0,8%<\/td>-2,9%<\/td>3,7<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Som det ses i ovenst\u00e5ende tabel, er det alts\u00e5 ikke alle sektorer, hvor de sm\u00e5 aktier halter efter de store over de seneste tre \u00e5r. Samtidig er der ogs\u00e5 meget stor forskel p\u00e5 differencen mellem de to aktiegrupper. Der er tre aktiegrupper, hvor forskellen er mere end 15%-point pr. \u00e5r. De tre grupper er ogs\u00e5 nogle af de mere rentef\u00f8lsomme, hvilket derfor giver mening, n\u00e5r man ser p\u00e5 renteudviklingen de seneste par \u00e5r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/td>S&P 500<\/strong><\/td>S&P 600<\/strong><\/td>S&P 500 premium (diff.)<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Industrials<\/td>21,0<\/td>17,7<\/td>3,3<\/td><\/tr>
Financials<\/td>15,6<\/td>10,2<\/td>5,4<\/td><\/tr>
Consumer Discretionary<\/td>25,9<\/td>12,7<\/td>13,2<\/td><\/tr>
Information Technology<\/td>29,0<\/td>19,5<\/td>9,5<\/td><\/tr>
Health Care<\/td>19,2<\/td>26,5<\/td>-7,3<\/td><\/tr>
Real Estate<\/td>36,5<\/td>53,7<\/td>-17,2<\/td><\/tr>
Materials<\/td>20,9<\/td>15,1<\/td>5,8<\/td><\/tr>
Energy<\/td>12,5<\/td>9,5<\/td>3,0<\/td><\/tr>
Consumer Staples<\/td>19,9<\/td>17,2<\/td>2,7<\/td><\/tr>
Communication Services<\/td>18,7<\/td>27,2<\/td>-8,5<\/td><\/tr>
Utilities<\/td>15,5<\/td>17,9<\/td>-2,4<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Set ud fra et sektorperspektiv betaler investorerne lige nu den h\u00f8jeste premium i S&P 500-aktier sammenlignet med S&P 600-aktier inden for sektorerne forbrugsgoder og informationsteknologi. Men omvendt, m\u00e5lt p\u00e5 forward P\/E, betaler investorerne lige nu faktisk en h\u00f8jere pris pr. forventet indtjeningskrone i de sm\u00e5 S&P 600-aktier i sektorerne ejendom, sundhed og kommunikationsservices. P\u00e5 trods af at sundhed og kommunikationsservices er to sektorer, hvor Small Cap-aktierne har haltet markant efter de store aktier de seneste tre \u00e5r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hvad b\u00f8r man holde \u00f8je med?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Om og hvor der gemmer sig et potentiale i Small Cap-aktier, er alts\u00e5 ikke helt entydigt. Der er flere potentielle forhold, som fremtidige renteneds\u00e6ttelser og en lavere generel v\u00e6rdis\u00e6tning af disse aktier, der taler for et potentiale. Samtidig er der en generel historisk underperformance sammenlignet med de st\u00f8rste selskaber, som ogs\u00e5 taler for et comeback.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Billedet er dog ikke entydigt, n\u00e5r vi ser p\u00e5 tv\u00e6rs af sektorer, og derfor kan det v\u00e6re interessant at se p\u00e5 potentialet i udvalgte sektorer som investor. G\u00e5r man ud fra at forward P\/E er en fornuftig m\u00e5lestok, kan det m\u00e5ske v\u00e6re interessant at se p\u00e5 Small Cap i sektorerne forbrugsgoder og informationsteknologi. Ser man p\u00e5 niveauet af underperformance de seneste par \u00e5r, er det informationsteknologi, sundhed og kommunikationsservices, der stikker ud som potentielle comeback-omr\u00e5der i markedet, hvor differencen de seneste \u00e5r har v\u00e6ret historisk stor, og hvor der m\u00e5ske ogs\u00e5 i forhold til renteudviklingen kan v\u00e6re medvind.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Herfra bliver det derfor f\u00f8rst og fremmest interessant at se, hvorn\u00e5r de f\u00f8rste renteneds\u00e6ttelser ruller ind over markedet, da det kan v\u00e6re starten p\u00e5 et evt. comeback til Small Cap-aktierne. Inflation er en vigtig m\u00e5lestok for dette, da for h\u00f8j inflation kan f\u00e5 den amerikanske centralbank til at udskyde renteneds\u00e6ttelser. Derudover kan man p\u00e5 sektorniveau holde skarpere \u00f8je med de sektorer, hvor der er en st\u00f8rre difference i b\u00e5de den historiske performance og den nuv\u00e6rende v\u00e6rdis\u00e6tning i forhold til fremtidig forventet indtjening pr. aktie (forward P\/E).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Mere inspiration til Small og Large Cap<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ovenst\u00e5ende er ikke en anbefaling til at k\u00f8be eller s\u00e6lge v\u00e6rdipapirer. Dette blogindl\u00e6g er udarbejdet til informationsform\u00e5l. Blogindl\u00e6gget udg\u00f8r s\u00e5ledes ikke investeringsm\u00e6ssig eller anden r\u00e5dgivning. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast. Finansielle instrumenter kan b\u00e5de stige og falde i v\u00e6rdi. Der er en risiko for, at du ikke f\u00e5r de investerede penge tilbage.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

De store mastodonter i S&P 500-indekset har overperformet de mindre aktier \u2013 ogs\u00e5 kaldet Small Cap. Faktisk ser vi lige nu den st\u00f8rste forskydning i mere end 10 \u00e5r. Men kan tendensen v\u00e6re ved at 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