{"id":59040,"date":"2024-04-22T09:57:38","date_gmt":"2024-04-22T07:57:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/?p=59040"},"modified":"2026-03-11T15:19:22","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T14:19:22","slug":"hvad-sker-der-med-ai-aktier","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/hvad-sker-der-med-ai-aktier\/","title":{"rendered":"Hvad sker der med AI-aktier?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Chipaktierne har v\u00e6ret drevet af AI-eufori og stigende indtjening. De seneste uger er stemningen blevet m\u00e6rkbar d\u00e5rligere og mere nerv\u00f8s. Fredag kulminerede usikkerheden med store kursfald, og det vil kun v\u00e6re naturligt, hvis investorerne er usikre p\u00e5 de kommende ugers kursudvikling<\/em>.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nvidia har v\u00e6ret p\u00e5 alles l\u00e6ber<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Det seneste \u00e5r har Nvidia v\u00e6ret p\u00e5 alles l\u00e6ber og i manges investeringsportef\u00f8ljer efter ekstreme stigninger. Stigningerne er ikke kommet ud af den bl\u00e5 luft og er ikke prisfasts\u00e6ttelsesm\u00e6ssigt drevet af en form for ‘dotcom-feber’. Der har alts\u00e5 v\u00e6ret oms\u00e6tnings- og indtjeningsudvikling for selskabet, der har underst\u00f8ttet de stigninger. Af figur 1 fremg\u00e5r analytikernes forventningerne til indtjeningsudviklingen for Nvidia for de kommende \u00e5r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Figur 1: Udvikling i analytikernes indtjeningsforventninger for Nvidia. Kilde: Marketscreener.com <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nvidia tr\u00e6kker v\u00e6rdik\u00e6den med op<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Det har ikke kun v\u00e6ret Nvidia, som har v\u00e6ret med til at henrykke investorerne. I k\u00f8lvandet og slipstr\u00f8mmen p\u00e5 Nvidia har de enorme v\u00e6kstrater banet vejen for andre selskabers succes. Det drejer sig om bl.a. om microchip-producenter og microchip-designere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Spektakul\u00e6r endagsstigning i ARM Holding<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

I starten af februar m\u00e5ned fik investorerne for alvor \u00f8jnene op for ARM Holdings, som p\u00e5 to handelsdage blev fordoblet, og som gjorde meget optimistiske chipinvestorer endnu mere euforiske. M\u00e5ske var det lidt overraskende, at det netop var ARM Holding, som steg s\u00e5 meget. Softbank b\u00f8rsf\u00f8rte selskabet i efter\u00e5ret og ejer stadig 90%, og det er formentlig blot et sp\u00f8rgsm\u00e5l om tid, f\u00f8r Softbank skal s\u00e6lge sig ned i ejerandel \u2013 og alt andet lige sende flere aktier<\/a> p\u00e5 markedet, som kan t\u00e6nkes at presse aktiekursen \u2013 i det mindste kortsigtet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

SMCI ant\u00e6nder negativ udvikling<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

I fredags skete der noget markant p\u00e5 aktiemarkedet. Reelt set var det nok mest det, som IKKE skete, som gjorde investorerne nerv\u00f8se og startede korrektionen. SMCI annoncerede datoen for sin regnskabsoffentligg\u00f8relse, som det er normal praksis. S\u00e5 langt s\u00e5 godt. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det var ikke, hvad SMCI gjorde, som fik betydning, men det som de ikke gjorde, som investorerne bed m\u00e6rke i. SMCI har ved de seneste 6\/7 datoannonceringer, samtidig f\u00f8rtidigt opjusteret deres forventninger i forbindelse med regnskabsdatoen. I det ene tilf\u00e6lde, hvor der ikke blev opjusteret, leverede SMCI p\u00e5 niveau med forventningerne. I de andre tilf\u00e6lde var tallene noget bedre end ventet.

Investorerne t\u00e6nker: Der kommer nok et regnskab p\u00e5 niveau med forventningerne. I et aktiemarked, som evigt og altid er fremadskuende, er det ikke en detalje, som passerer forbi uden at blive mere end blot bem\u00e6rket. Fredagens kursreaktion er s\u00e5ledes ikke kun en skuffelse over en udebleven opjustering. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Figur 2: Kursudvikling for SMCI. Grafen viser kursudviklingen for 1 m\u00e5ned og er trukket 22. april kl. 9. Den komplette kursudvikling for aktien<\/a> kan du finde her. Kilde: nordnet.dk.
Husk, at historisk afkast ikke er en garanti for fremtidigt afkast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Er momentum intakt?<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Den s\u00e6tter ogs\u00e5 kortsigtet et sp\u00f8rgsm\u00e5lstegn ved, om v\u00e6ksten er intakt i den industri, hvor v\u00e6kstforventningerne er ekstreme, og det som har drevet aktiekurserne. Hvis v\u00e6ksten er aftagende, vil det have en \u00f8jeblikkelig betydning for aktiekurserne. Husk p\u00e5: Investorerne k\u00f8ber ikke en aktie i dag, fordi den er billig, men fordi de h\u00e5ber, den g\u00e5r op i morgen. Og tilsvarende s\u00e6lger de ikke en dyr aktie i dag, medmindre de frygter, den g\u00e5r ned i morgen.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

SMCI-specifikt, generelt eller blot gevinsthjemtagning?<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Der er alts\u00e5 flere ting, der kan have spillet ind p\u00e5 reaktionen fredag:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. V\u00e6ksten i markedet kan v\u00e6re p\u00e5 vej ned<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Kan SMCI m\u00e5ske have tabt lidt momentum? <\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. Naturlig gevinsthjemtagning efter store stigninger og risiko for en st\u00f8rre generel aktiemarkedskorrektion, som kan ramme alle, er ogs\u00e5 en reel og plausibel mulighed. <\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
    \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    Figur 3: Kursudviklingen for ARM Holding, NVDA, SMCI og AMD henholdsvis for \u00e5r-til dato og den seneste uge. Kilde: nordnet.dk.Husk, at historisk afkast ikke er en garanti for fremtidigt afkast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Hvis jeg skal samle op p\u00e5 AI-aktier efter fredagen, s\u00e5 st\u00e5r f\u00f8lgende klart:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    • Selv efter SMCI’s kortsigtede nedtur, har aktiens kursstigning stadig v\u00e6ret ekstrem<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Der er en meget stor forskel p\u00e5 de enkelte aktiers udvikling<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • ARM Holding er kommet ned p\u00e5 jorden igen efter februar m\u00e5neds fordobling<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • AMD har klaret sig d\u00e5rligst. Det skyldes ikke mindst, at deres Kina-eksponering er en udfordring. USA forhindrer eksport af kritiske chips. Det betyder mindre salg og lavere v\u00e6kst, men giver ogs\u00e5 en risiko for, at Kina opbygger deres egen industri.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

      Endeligt er her et overblik over datoerne udvalgte chipselskabers regnskaber (* = estimeret):<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \n
      • SMCI: 30\/4<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • AMD: 30\/4<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • ARM Holding: 8\/5*<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • Nvidia: 22\/5*<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

        Ovenst\u00e5ende er ikke en anbefaling til at k\u00f8be eller s\u00e6lge v\u00e6rdipapirer og udg\u00f8r s\u00e5ledes ikke investeringsm\u00e6ssig eller anden r\u00e5dgivning. Finansielle instrumenter kan b\u00e5de stige og falde i v\u00e6rdi. Der er en risiko for, at du ikke f\u00e5r de investerede penge tilbage.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        Chipaktierne har v\u00e6ret drevet af AI-eufori og stigende indtjening. De seneste uger er stemningen blevet m\u00e6rkbar d\u00e5rligere og mere nerv\u00f8s. Fredag kulminerede usikkerheden med store kursfald, og det vil kun v\u00e6re naturligt, hvis investorerne er usikre p\u00e5 de kommende ugers kursudvikling. Nvidia har v\u00e6ret p\u00e5 alles l\u00e6ber Det seneste \u00e5r har Nvidia v\u00e6ret p\u00e5 alles […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40015,"featured_media":59047,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1288],"tags":[3336,1612,2310],"class_list":["post-59040","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markedet","tag-aktieinspiration","tag-persunivers","tag-tophistorier"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/04\/AI_lilla_1200x430-150x54.png","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/04\/AI_lilla_1200x430-150x54.png 150w, 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