{"id":59308,"date":"2024-04-26T08:31:45","date_gmt":"2024-04-26T06:31:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/?p=59308"},"modified":"2024-04-29T09:50:18","modified_gmt":"2024-04-29T07:50:18","slug":"stor-eftersporgsel-solenergi-analyse-af-canadian-solar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/stor-eftersporgsel-solenergi-analyse-af-canadian-solar\/","title":{"rendered":"Stor eftersp\u00f8rgsel p\u00e5 solenergi: Analyse af branchen og Canadian Solar"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Solenergi er nu den billigste energiform i verden. Eftersp\u00f8rgslen eksploderer, og det canadiske selskab Canadian Solar<\/a> er en af vinderne i kapl\u00f8bet om at s\u00e6nke priserne og undg\u00e5 konkurs. Alligevel er aktien prissat med en overraskende stor rabat p\u00e5 61-83% i forhold til de underliggende v\u00e6rdier. Jeg har beregnet n\u00f8gletal for 10 b\u00f8rsnoterede solpanelproducenter.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prisen p\u00e5 solenergi er faldet fra 77 $\/watt i 1977 til 4 $\/watt i 2008 og 0,2 $\/watt i 2024. Prisen er nu s\u00e5 lav, at solenergi er verdens billigste energiform. De faldende priser har f\u00e5et eftersp\u00f8rgslen til at eksplodere. Verdensmarkedet for solenergi er s\u00e5ledes 10-doblet p\u00e5 10 \u00e5r, jf. nedenst\u00e5ende figur fra Canadian Solars seneste investorpr\u00e6sentation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Kilde: Investorpr\u00e6sentation Canadian Solar<\/a>, marts 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Som det fremg\u00e5r, er eftersp\u00f8rgslen \u00f8get fra 41 GW i 2013 til 444 GW i 2023, svarende til gennemsnitlig v\u00e6kst p\u00e5 27% p.a. Verdensmarkedet for solpaneler forventes at vokse ca. 29% fra 444 GW i 2023 til 574 GW i 2024. Og markedet forventes pt. fordoblet over de n\u00e6ste syv \u00e5r. Men pas p\u00e5 med at handle ud fra den slags fremskrivninger. Ingen kender fremtiden, og ingen har v\u00e6ret gode til at forudsige den historiske udvikling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

F\u00e5 giganter d\u00e6kker 80% af markedet<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

De faldende priser har ogs\u00e5 medf\u00f8rt en h\u00e6sbl\u00e6sende konkurrence mellem PV-producenterne, hvor de fleste selskaber er g\u00e5et fallit eller har opgivet kampen. Tilbage st\u00e5r blot 7-8 gigantiske selskaber, der tilsammen d\u00e6kker mere end 80% af markedet.De fem st\u00f8rste selskaber er kinesiske, herunder kendte navne som Jinko Solar, Trina Solar og JA Solar. Kun to vestlige selskaber er endnu med i konkurrencen, nemlig canadiske Canadian Solar og amerikanske First Solar<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jeg har i juni 2022 k\u00f8bt Canadian Solar til min modelportef\u00f8lje hos Nordnet<\/a>. Jeg vil i n\u00e6rv\u00e6rende artikel beskrive selskabet n\u00e6rmere og pr\u00e6sentere n\u00f8gletal for de \u00f8vrige f\u00f8rende akt\u00f8rer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Canadian Solar: Verdens 6. st\u00f8rste producent<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Canadian Solar er i dag verdens sjette st\u00f8rste producent af PV-solpaneler. Selskabets produktion\/salg er mere end 150-doblet fra 0,2 GW i 2008 til 31 GW i 2023, og selskabets markedsandele er vokset j\u00e6vnt fra ca. 3% i 2008 til ca. 8% i 2023. Se nedenst\u00e5ende figur fra Canadian Solars seneste investorpr\u00e6sentation:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Kilde: Investorpr\u00e6sentation Canadian Solar<\/a>, marts 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I 2024 forventer selskabet v\u00e6kst p\u00e5 yderligere 35-52% til 42-47 GW. Canadian Solar forventer dermed at vokse lidt hurtigere end markedet, ogs\u00e5 i 2024, og selskabet forventer at \u00f8ge markedsandelen yderligere i fremtiden. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Forklaringen er konkurrencesituationen, hvor de st\u00f8rste producenter har alle fordelene. De mindre producenter er urentable og mister markedsandele, mens de st\u00f8rste producenter har let ved at rejse kapital og ekspandere.Som det ogs\u00e5 fremg\u00e5r, er Canadian Solars salg godt fordelt geografisk. Kina er det st\u00f8rste marked med 28%, efterfulgt af Europa, Mellem\u00f8sten og Afrika (EMEA) med 25%, Nordamerika med 22% og Sydamerika med 13%. Ingen konkurrenter har en liges\u00e5 god geografisk fordeling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Udover en st\u00e6rk position inden for produktion og salg af solpaneler, har Canadian Solar ogs\u00e5 en st\u00e6rk markedsposition inden for industribatterier eller energilagring til solparker. Mange solparker s\u00e6lges i dag med tilh\u00f8rende batterier, s\u00e5 energien kan aftappes med op til fem timers forsinkelse. Det giver god mening, da energien typisk produceres midt p\u00e5 dagen, men hovedsageligt forbruges om eftermiddagen og aftenen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indtjening pr. aktie<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Canadian Solars indtjening pr. aktie (EPS udvandet) er \u00f8get fra 0,63 USD i 2013 til 3,87 USD i 2023, svarende til gennemsnitlig v\u00e6kst p\u00e5 20% p.a.:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Kilde: Yahoo! Finance. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markedet forventer, at EPS falder til 3,53 USD i 2024 og stiger til 5,17 USD i 2025. Forventningerne svarer til fornyet v\u00e6kst p\u00e5 15,6% p.a. fra 2023 til 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kursudvikling siden b\u00f8rsnotering<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Canadian Solar blev b\u00f8rsnoteret p\u00e5 Nasdaq<\/a> i New York i efter\u00e5ret 2006 i kurs 15 USD. Du kan se kursudviklingen siden november 2006 i figuren nedenfor:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Kilde: Yahoo! Finance. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast. Periode fra december 2005.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Som det fremg\u00e5r, er kursen opgjort til 14,96 USD pr. 24. april 2024. Kursen er alts\u00e5 ikke steget det mindste siden b\u00f8rsnoteringen, selvom resultaterne har v\u00e6ret gode. Eksempelvis er selskabets indre v\u00e6rdi pr. aktie vokset fra 4,14 USD i december 2006 til 38,76 USD i december 2023, svarende til gennemsnitlig v\u00e6kst p\u00e5 14,1% p.a. Med kurs 14,96 USD har Canadian Solar en b\u00f8rsv\u00e6rdi p\u00e5 blot 6,9 mia. kr.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prissat med rabat?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Canadian Solar har to store datterselskaber. Det st\u00f8rste datterselskab, CSI Solar, producerer solpaneler og energilagringssystemer. CSI Solar blev separat b\u00f8rsnoteret i Shanghai i juni 2023, hvor selskabet rejste ca. 950 mio. USD. CSI Solars b\u00f8rsv\u00e6rdi var 41,7 mia. kroner pr. 24. april 2024. Canadian Solar ejer efter b\u00f8rsnoteringen fortsat 62% af CSI Solar. B\u00f8rsv\u00e6rdien af Canadian Solars aktier<\/a> i CSI Solar kan dermed beregnes til ca. 26 mia. kroner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det andet datterselskab, der hedder Recurrent Energy, udvikler og ejer solparker. Selskabet fungerer derved som kunde i forhold til CSI Solar. Blackrock har i for\u00e5ret 2024 k\u00f8bt 20% af Recurrent Energy for 500 mio. USD i en privat handel. Recurrent Energys markedsv\u00e6rdi kan dermed l\u00f8st s\u00e6ttes til 2.500 mio. USD eller ca. 17,5 mia. kroner. Canadian Solar ejer fortsat 80% af selskabet. Handelsv\u00e6rdien af Canadian Solars aktier i Recurrent Energy kan dermed estimeres til ca. 14 mia. kr.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Canadian Solars datterselskaber har s\u00e5ledes tilsammen en handelsv\u00e6rdi eller Net Asset Value (NAV) p\u00e5 ca. 40 mia. kroner (26 mia. kr. + 14 mia. kr.). Selskabets egenkapital er senest opgjort til 2,6 mia. USD eller 18,2 mia. kr.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Til sammenligning er Canadian Solars b\u00f8rsv\u00e6rdi blot 6,9 mia. kr. Canadian Solar er aktuelt vurderet svarende til K\/I=0,39 (kurs\/indre v\u00e6rdi) og K\/NAV=0,17. Selskabet er med andre ord prissat med 61-83% rabat i forhold til de underliggende v\u00e6rdier i selskabet i form af egenkapital (indre v\u00e6rdi) eller markedsv\u00e6rdi af datterselskaberne (NAV).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jeg synes, at Canadian Solars historiske resultater er overbevisende, og jeg forventer tilsvarende gode resultater i fremtiden. Jeg ser Canadian Solar som en branchevinder inden for et forretningsomr\u00e5de, der m\u00e5 forventes at vokse kraftigt mange \u00e5rtier endnu. Hvad forventer du?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00f8gletal for 10 b\u00f8rsnoterede producenter<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeg har beregnet n\u00f8gletal for Canadian Solar og selskabets b\u00f8rsnoterede konkurrenter, jf. nedenst\u00e5ende tabel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Kilde: Yahoo! Finance og MarketScreener. Data pr. 24. april 2024. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Seks af aktierne er markeret med r\u00f8d skrift. Det betyder, at de er b\u00f8rsnoteret i Kina og ikke kan k\u00f8bes af vestlige investorer. De fire selskaber med sort skrift kan k\u00f8bes via Nordnets handelsplatform.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JinkoSolar Holding, Kina<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Kina udgjorde i 2022 42% af salget, mens Europa stod for 24%. JinkoSolar Holding er ligesom Canadian Solar b\u00f8rsnoteret p\u00e5 Nasdaq. Og ligesom Canadian Solar har Jinko b\u00f8rsnoteret sit st\u00f8rste datterselskab i Shanghai. JinkoSolar Holding ejer fortsat 58,6% af datterselskabet Jinko Solar, der har en b\u00f8rsv\u00e6rdi p\u00e5 73,1 mia. kr. JinkoSolar Holdings aktier i datterselskabet har dermed en b\u00f8rsv\u00e6rdi af 42,8 mia. kr. (NAV). Da moderselskabet JinkoSolar Holding \u201dkun\u201d har en b\u00f8rsv\u00e6rdi p\u00e5 8,35 mia. kr., kan NAV-rabatten beregnes til 80%, alts\u00e5 omtrent samme NAV-rabat som Canadian Solar. Jeg tror, at den ekstreme rabat p\u00e5 Canadian Solar og JinkoSolar skyldes, at kinesiske aktier er oversolgt for tiden, selvom Canadian Solar strengt taget ikke er kinesisk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JinkoSolar Holding har for nylig lanceret et aktietilbagek\u00f8bsprogram og annonceret et p\u00e6nt udbytte<\/a>. Udbyttet p\u00e5 1,6 USD giver et direkte udbytteafkast p\u00e5 6,5%. Disse aktion\u00e6rvenlige tiltag fra Jinkos side b\u00f8r med tiden medvirke til at indsn\u00e6vre rabatten. Man kan h\u00e5be, Canadian Solar vil f\u00f8lge Jinkos eksempel og lancere udbytte og aktietilbagek\u00f8b.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First Solar, USA<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

First Solars historiske resultater er skuffende med lav indtjening og tabte markedsandele. Alligevel handles aktien fortsat i relativ h\u00f8j kurs. Jeg synes ikke, den h\u00f8je b\u00f8rsv\u00e6rdi og de relativt h\u00f8je multipler er berettiget. Jeg g\u00e6tter p\u00e5, at First Solar-aktien vil underperforme i forhold til Jinko Solar og Canadian Solar i de kommende \u00e5r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sunpower, USA<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Dette selskab er 70% ejet af olieselskabet Total Energy. Selskabet har skuffet vedvarende og konsekvent og overlever udelukkende, fordi Total Energy holder det i live.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hvad mener du om Canadian Solar og de \u00f8vrige solcelleproducenter?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dette er ikke en k\u00f8bsanbefaling. Kursen p\u00e5 de n\u00e6vnte aktier kan b\u00e5de stige og falde. L\u00e6seren anbefales selv at lave supplerende analyser. Du er som l\u00e6ser selv ansvarlig for dine investeringsbeslutninger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
Inspiration til b\u00e6redygtig investering<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thorleif Jackson ejer aktier i Canadian Solar, der ogs\u00e5 indg\u00e5r i hans modelportef\u00f8lje hos Nordnet.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dette materiale er udarbejdet af Thorleif Jackson og indeholder information, der kan anses for at v\u00e6re en investeringsanbefaling i henhold til Markedsmisbrugsforordningen (Europa-Parlamentets og R\u00e5dets forordning 596\/2014), dvs. information som anbefaler eller foresl\u00e5r en investeringsstrategi. Nordnet Bank, filial af Nordnet Bank AB, Sverige (Nordnet), har ikke deltaget i udarbejdelsen, gennemg\u00e5et eller foretaget \u00e6ndringer i materialet. Thorleif Jackson har ansvaret for materialets indhold, og at det lever op til g\u00e6ldende lovgivning og regler.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Materialet har ikke v\u00e6ret forelagt de omtalte selskaber.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dette materiale blev offentliggjort f\u00f8rste gang den 26. april 2024 kl. 08:30.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indholdet i dette materiale udg\u00f8r ikke personlig investeringsr\u00e5dgivning. Det er vigtigt, at du som investor tr\u00e6ffer dine investeringsbeslutninger ud fra din egen vurdering af information fra forskellige kilder. Nordnet p\u00e5tager sig intet ansvar for direkte eller indirekte tab som f\u00f8lge af brug af information fra dette materiale. Materialet m\u00e5 ikke gengives uden Nordnets udtrykkelige samtykke.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thorleif Jackson modtager honorar fra Nordnet. Honoraret er aftalt p\u00e5 forh\u00e5nd og er ikke afh\u00e6ngig af materialets indhold eller de virksomheder, som er omtalt heri.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det kan forekomme, at Nordnet har positioner i v\u00e6rdipapirer, der omtales i materialet. En s\u00e5dan beholdning er da alene af administrative hensyn og uden fortjeneste for Nordnet.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nordnet er under tilsyn af Finansinspektionen i Sverige og det danske Finanstilsyn.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Der er altid en risiko forbundet med at investere. Historiske afkast er ikke en garanti for fremtidige afkast. Finansielle instrumenter kan b\u00e5de stige og falde i v\u00e6rdi. Der er en risiko for, at du ikke f\u00e5r de investerede penge tilbage.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Prisen p\u00e5 solenergi er faldet, og eftersp\u00f8rgslen er eksploderet. Canadian Solar er en af de helt store spillere. Se aktieanalytiker Thorleif Jacksons analyse af selskabet og de andre producenter p\u00e5 markedet.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40009,"featured_media":59316,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1291],"tags":[3336],"class_list":["post-59308","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-aktieinspiration"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/04\/Solceller_himmel_1200x430-150x54.jpg","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/04\/Solceller_himmel_1200x430-150x54.jpg 150w, 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