{"id":60592,"date":"2024-06-25T12:40:27","date_gmt":"2024-06-25T10:40:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/?p=60592"},"modified":"2026-03-11T15:40:29","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T14:40:29","slug":"kommer-der-snart-en-aktiekorrektion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/kommer-der-snart-en-aktiekorrektion\/","title":{"rendered":"Kommer der snart en aktiekorrektion?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

I n\u00e6ste uge starter den uofficielle sommerferie. Det er h\u00f8jtid for skybrudsrisiko, men er det ogs\u00e5 p\u00e5 h\u00f8je tid, at der kommer en st\u00f8rre aktiekorrektion? Den vil komme uventet og ubelejligt, men er helt normal, og langsigtet kan den ikke undv\u00e6res i et sundt aktiemarked.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Succesfuldt f\u00f8rste halvdel af 2024 minus Kina<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Vi er p\u00e5 vej ind i 1. halv\u00e5rs sidste uge. For investorerne har det generelt v\u00e6ret et succesfuldt halv\u00e5r, der har v\u00e6ret koncentreret om AI og ikke mindst Nvidia, andre chipaktier samt af et \u201dfedmetema\u201d. Det har v\u00e6ret et halv\u00e5r med gode afkast med undtagelse af en fortsat kinesisk aktiekatastrofe. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sommermarked betyder mindre likviditet<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

De, som har haft et godt f\u00f8rste halv\u00e5r, og som investerer andre menneskers penge professionelt, vil ikke tage for store kortsigtede risici. Det kan betyde mindre portef\u00f8ljejusteringer, men n\u00e6ppe at der bliver \u00e6ndret meget og taget meget store og kortsigtede risici. Samtidig er sommertid lig med ferietid. N\u00e5r der er flere p\u00e5 ferie og f\u00e6rre p\u00e5 arbejde, betyder det alt andet lige, at de kommende 3-4 uger bliver pr\u00e6get af mindre oms\u00e6tning. Formentlig indtil regnskaberne for 2. kvartal begynder at komme. Det er medio juli for amerikanernes vedkommende, og det sker omtrent en uge senere i Danmark\/Europa. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Breaking news holder \u201dsommerferie\u201d<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Mindre likviditet betyder ogs\u00e5 f\u00e6rre selskabsmeddelelser og mindre \u201dbreaking news\u201d. Hvis de alligevel kommer, kan det medf\u00f8re st\u00f8rre kursbev\u00e6gelser, n\u00e5r aktiefolket er p\u00e5 ferie og ikke handelsm\u00e6ssigt \u201dblander sig\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Den sidste korrektion er altid glemt<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Det er et stykke tid siden, vi har haft en st\u00f8rre korrektion, som jeg vil definere som 5 %+ nedtur p\u00e5 indeksniveau. Der var en i april, som overvejende i styrke var relateret til USA, og som ikke for alvor spredte sig til resten af verden. Siden dengang er aktierne generelt g\u00e5et op. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

F\u00f8lger overtryk og korrektion efter h\u00f8jtryk?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Investorerne er aktuelt meget komfortable med aktieudviklingen, som ikke mindst er drevet af USA og de 10 st\u00f8rste selskaber, og af AI, Nvidia og andre chipaktier. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Figur 1: Fear and Greed-indekset. Kilde: cnn.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fear and Greed-indekset i figur 1 viser godt nok en vis usikkerhed, nerv\u00f8sitet og frygt, men jeg t\u00e6nker, det er et signal, som er \u201dtil fortolkning\u201d. Bev\u00e6gelsen ned i frygt er ikke mindst skabt af, at chipaktier har haft en \u201dlillebitte\u201d retr\u00e6te. Under overfladen er stemningen stadig optimistisk, men det kan hurtigt vende. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

5 ting, der kan \u00f8del\u00e6gge den gode stemning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Det er ikke givet, at korrektionen kommer, men her er lidt inspiration: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. Hvis den kommer, vil den uv\u00e6gerligt kunne ses og m\u00e6rkes i chipaktier. Deres positive kursudvikling drives f\u00f8rst og fremmest og n\u00e6sten udelukkende af en positiv spill-over fra Nvidia. Indtjeningsforventninger fra fx Arm Holding og AMD st\u00e5r n\u00e6rmest stille, og stigende aktiekurser<\/a> er ikke mindst drevet af en ub\u00e6ndig lyst til at v\u00e6re med p\u00e5 det positive kursmomentum. Der kommer forh\u00e5bentlig ikke en v\u00e6kstopbremsning eller en negativ \u00f8konomisk tilkendegivelse fra \u201dsektoren\u201d, men hvis der g\u00f8r, kan fald blive tonstunge, og vil ikke kun kunne m\u00e6rkes i sektoren, men give rystelser i hele aktiemarkedet. De seneste dage er Nvidia faldet lidt tilbage. Sp\u00f8rgsm\u00e5let er, om det er et udtryk for, at de er begyndt at tage investeringschip(s) af bordet?<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Investorerne har v\u00e6ret renteimmune og sendt aktierne op, selvom renterne ikke er kommet ned. De europ\u00e6iske n\u00f8gletal er stadig mellemforn\u00f8jede, og i USA veksler de mellem dur og mol. Hvis n\u00f8gletal bliver (markant) ringere, vil investorerne og Federal Reserve reagere, men vil man f\u00f8rst tage udgangspunkt i potentielle negative indtjeningsrevisioner?<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. Politik kan skabe sp\u00e6ndinger, men er langsigtede ikke en stor kilde til negative p\u00e5virkninger. I n\u00e6ste weekend skal Frankrig til valg, og sandsynligheden for stigende po(pu)larisering af udgiftskr\u00e6vende forslag er ret stor. Det har allerede v\u00e6ret en st\u00f8rre kortsigtet kilde til fransk aktieuro, men breder det sig til en st\u00f8rre del af Europa?<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  4. Den globale v\u00e6kst har det fornuftigt, og m\u00e5ske er investorerne ved at indstille sig p\u00e5, at der kan komme et \u00f8konomisk opsving i 2025 godt hjulpet af, at lavere inflation giver plads til v\u00e6sentlig lavere renter de kommende 12-18 m\u00e5neder. Der kommer n\u00e6ppe en st\u00f8rre negativ makro\u00f8konomisk overraskelse nu, vil investorerne formentlig antage.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  5. Sommer er ikke normalt forbundet med st\u00f8rre korrektioner med undtagelse af for lidt mere end 10 \u00e5r siden, hvor investorerne p\u00e5 den h\u00e5rde og ufede m\u00e5de fandt ud af, at gr\u00e6ske EUR-statsobligationer ikke havde den kreditbonitet, som de troede og var blevet fortalt.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Sommerkorrektion?<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Hvis der skal komme en sommerkorrektion, vil det efter min mening v\u00e6re mest sandsynligt, at den starter i chipsektoren. Ikke fordi der er noget \u00e6ndret i de langsigtede udsigter, men slet og ret fordi aktiekursudviklingen er 1) l\u00f8bet grundigt i forvejen, og 2) s\u00e5 l\u00e6nge Nvidia stiger, tr\u00e6kker det andre chipaktier med op holdningen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Ovenst\u00e5ende er ikke en anbefaling til at k\u00f8be eller s\u00e6lge v\u00e6rdipapirer<\/em>. Dette blogindl\u00e6g er udarbejdet til informationsform\u00e5l. Blogindl\u00e6gget udg\u00f8r s\u00e5ledes ikke investeringsm\u00e6ssig eller anden r\u00e5dgivning. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast. Finansielle instrumenter kan b\u00e5de stige og falde i v\u00e6rdi. Der er en risiko for, at du ikke f\u00e5r de investerede penge tilbage.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    I n\u00e6ste uge starter den uofficielle sommerferie. Det er h\u00f8jtid for skybrudsrisiko, men er det ogs\u00e5 p\u00e5 h\u00f8je tide, at der kommer en st\u00f8rre aktiekorrektion? Investerings\u00f8konom Per Hansen giver sit bud.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40015,"featured_media":59911,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1291],"tags":[1612,2310],"class_list":["post-60592","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-persunivers","tag-tophistorier"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/05\/OX8A3011_1200x430-150x54.png","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/05\/OX8A3011_1200x430-150x54.png 150w, 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