{"id":61019,"date":"2024-08-06T10:46:31","date_gmt":"2024-08-06T08:46:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/?p=61019"},"modified":"2024-08-06T14:23:02","modified_gmt":"2024-08-06T12:23:02","slug":"spaendende-nye-tendenser-flere-steder-paa-finansmarkederne","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/spaendende-nye-tendenser-flere-steder-paa-finansmarkederne\/","title":{"rendered":"Sp\u00e6ndende nye tendenser flere steder p\u00e5 finansmarkederne"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Sommeren er ikke helt slut endnu og p\u00e5 finansmarkederne er der langt fra feriestemning, men i stedet heftig aktivitet. N\u00f8gleordet er \u201drotation\u201d eller p\u00e5 godt dansk: Der er sket et markant skifte den seneste m\u00e5ned i hvilke investeringer, der klarer sig godt. Det g\u00e6lder b\u00e5de mellem aktivklasser og indenfor aktivklasserne &#8211; is\u00e6r indenfor <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/aktier\/kurser\">aktier<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sp\u00f8rgsm\u00e5let for os investorer er, om det her blot er en kort modreaktion eller nogle mere vedholdende \u00e6ndringer i markedet? <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Her er kort, hvad der er gang i:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Obligationer: Efter flere \u00e5rs kurstab og stigende renter har mange obligationer oplevet bedre kursudvikling pga. forventning om lavere inflation, v\u00e6kst og snarlige rentes\u00e6nkninger fra centralbankerne.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Aktier: Efter et fantastisk 1. halv\u00e5r er hum\u00f8ret skiftet fra det euforiske til det mere nerv\u00f8se. Samtidig er volatiliteten taget markant til, s\u00e5 kurserne hopper mere op og ned dag for dag, og lige nu er det med en pil nedad. Samtidig er der gang i nogle markante rotationer ud af de store tech-aktier og cykliske aktier, og ind i ikke-konjunkturf\u00f8lsomme s\u00e5kaldte defensive aktier og til tider ogs\u00e5 small cap aktier. Kinesiske aktier er g\u00e5et i st\u00e5 igen efter en kort for\u00e5rs-optur.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>R\u00e5varer: Aktivklassen er g\u00e5et fra stor medvind f\u00f8r sommerferien til at vise lidt svaghedstegn i flere undergrupper som fx. konjunkturf\u00f8lsomme olie og kobber, men ogs\u00e5 fx. uran og korn. Derimod holder \u00e6delmetaller nogenlunde skansen, med guldpriserne i ny rekord.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"367\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2023\/01\/Frank-Hvid_1200-x-428-1024x367.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-48955\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2023\/01\/Frank-Hvid_1200-x-428-1024x367.png 1024w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2023\/01\/Frank-Hvid_1200-x-428-620x222.png 620w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2023\/01\/Frank-Hvid_1200-x-428-150x54.png 150w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2023\/01\/Frank-Hvid_1200-x-428-768x275.png 768w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2023\/01\/Frank-Hvid_1200-x-428-500x179.png 500w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2023\/01\/Frank-Hvid_1200-x-428-800x287.png 800w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2023\/01\/Frank-Hvid_1200-x-428-370x133.png 370w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2023\/01\/Frank-Hvid_1200-x-428-270x97.png 270w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2023\/01\/Frank-Hvid_1200-x-428-570x204.png 570w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2023\/01\/Frank-Hvid_1200-x-428-740x265.png 740w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2023\/01\/Frank-Hvid_1200-x-428.png 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Frank Hvid er \u00f8konom med bred erfaring inden for finans- og investeringsverdenen. Han er ekstern skribent p\u00e5 Nordnets blog med speciale i samfundsforhold, national\u00f8konomi og finansudvikling.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"der-synes-at-vaere-flere-overordnede-arsager-til-de-sete-markedsbevaegelser\">Der synes at v\u00e6re flere overordnede \u00e5rsager til de sete markedsbev\u00e6gelser.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>For det f\u00f8rste er der positionering<\/strong>. Data fra bl.a. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/aktier\/kurser\/deutsche-bank-dbk-xeta\">Deutsche Bank<\/a> og Goldman Sachs viser meget stor investor-koncentration og gearede positioner i bl.a. v\u00e6kst- og cykliske aktier og Magnificent7- aktierne, mens det forholder sig modsat mht. small cap aktier og defensive aktier. Samtidig er den japanske yen begyndt at stige markant efter mange \u00e5rs fald, hvor den har v\u00e6ret brugt flittigt til at finansiere gearede investeringer. De tvinges nu til at lukke ned, og det betyder mindre risikotagning og salg af positioner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>For det andet er der de fundamentale forhold, dvs. makro-, konkurs- og indtjeningsbilledet. <\/strong>Her er der p\u00e5 det seneste is\u00e6r opst\u00e5et tvivl om de mange milliarder af dollars, som er investeret i AI-udstyr virkelig kan tjene sig hjem igen. Samtidig har en r\u00e6kke regnskaber og makrotal skabt tvivl om v\u00e6kstbilledet i USA i 2. halv\u00e5r, mens den kinesiske \u00f8konomi fortsat viser svaghedstegn.Til geng\u00e6ld er inflationen faldet, og det tr\u00e6kker renterne ned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>For det tredje n\u00e5ede prisfasts\u00e6ttelsen af flere af vinder-sektorerne<\/strong> i juni op i de samme h\u00f8jder som tilbage i slutningen af 2021, inden den store aktienedtur ramte i 2022. Og den relative prisfasts\u00e6ttelse mellem fx. large cap og small cap og cykliske og defensive sektorer n\u00e5ede ogs\u00e5 nogle meget h\u00f8je niveauer. Samlet set betyder det, at en del \u201cvinderaktier\u201d er prissat s\u00e5 h\u00f8jt, at de ikke kan tillade sig at skuffe det mindste. Omvendt ser det ud med nogle af de aktietyper, der har haltet noget efter. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"det-store-sporgsmal-for-investorerne-er-om-det-her-blot-er-en-kort-modreaktion-eller-nogle-mere-vedholdende-aendringer-i-markedssituationen\"><strong>Det store sp\u00f8rgsm\u00e5l for investorerne er, om det her blot er en kort modreaktion eller nogle mere vedholdende \u00e6ndringer i markedssituationen?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Den ekstreme positionering med mange gearede positioner samtidig med mange short-positioner i yen\u2019en viser, at risikoen for en korrektion er ganske betydelig ved blot den mindste skuffelse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Om det udvikler sig til en st\u00f8rre nedtur eller ej, afh\u00e6nger meget af, om v\u00e6ksten i verdens\u00f8konomien, og is\u00e6r i USA, kan forts\u00e6tte, mens Fed og andre centralbanker begynder at s\u00e6nke renterne. Hvis den kan, s\u00e5 viser de historiske erfaringer fra tidligere Fed-rentes\u00e6nkninger (se grafen), at aktier i gennemsnit er steget 15-17% over det kommende \u00e5r. Omvendt, hvis v\u00e6ksten d\u00e6mpes markant, gr\u00e6nsende til en recession, s\u00e5 indtjeningen i virksomhederne falder, vil den st\u00e5 p\u00e5 kurstab p\u00e5 i gennemsnit 20% det n\u00e6ste \u00e5r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Lige nu viser makrotallene et blandet v\u00e6kstbillede med en pil nedad p\u00e5 de seneste data, mens enkelte peger p\u00e5 en recession. Derfor er risikoen ogs\u00e5 til stede, men vi er der ikke helt endnu. P\u00e5 nuv\u00e6rende tidspunkt er det alts\u00e5 umuligt at sige, om vi st\u00e5r med nogle blot kortvarige lufthuller i markedet, eller noget der kan udvikle sig mere alvorligt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"602\" height=\"396\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/08\/Graf1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-61105\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/08\/Graf1.png 602w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/08\/Graf1-150x99.png 150w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/08\/Graf1-500x329.png 500w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/08\/Graf1-370x243.png 370w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/08\/Graf1-270x178.png 270w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/08\/Graf1-570x375.png 570w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 602px) 100vw, 602px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Det kan v\u00e6re sv\u00e6rt at sige med stor overbevisning, om nogle af de igangv\u00e6rende rotationer vil forts\u00e6tte eller ej. Men igen: Den ekstreme positionering kombinerede med h\u00f8j og kr\u00e6vende prisfasts\u00e6ttelse p\u00e5 \u201cvinderaktierne\u201d viser, at rotationerne godt kan forts\u00e6tte i et stykke tid og blive mere vedvarende, hvis regnskaberne fra \u201cvinderaktierne\u201d skaber det mindste tvivl om deres v\u00e6kstpotentiale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Se grafen nedenfor, som viser den rekordh\u00f8je markedsv\u00e6gt p\u00e5 tech og rekordlave markedsv\u00e6gt p\u00e5 defensive aktier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"602\" height=\"421\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/08\/Graf2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-61104\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/08\/Graf2.jpg 602w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/08\/Graf2-150x105.jpg 150w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/08\/Graf2-500x350.jpg 500w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/08\/Graf2-370x259.jpg 370w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/08\/Graf2-270x189.jpg 270w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/08\/Graf2-570x399.jpg 570w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 602px) 100vw, 602px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"overvejelser-til-din-portefolje\"><strong>Overvejelser til din portef\u00f8lje<\/strong><\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p>Uanset om man tror, at det vi oplever lige nu blot er en kort modreaktion eller nogle mere vedholdende \u00e6ndringer i markedet, s\u00e5 er det v\u00e6rd at overveje f\u00f8lgende fire \u00e6ndringer til din portef\u00f8lje (jo mere bekymret man er, desto mere kan man skrue op for de fire \u00e6ndringer):<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"1-hold-styr-pa-risikoen-og-risikospredningen\">1. Hold styr p\u00e5 risikoen og risikospredningen<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Er andelen af aktier \u2013 og is\u00e6r \u201cvinderaktierne\u201d ( Eksempelvis Magnificent7, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/aktier\/kurser\/novo-nordisk-b-novo-b-xcse\">Novo<\/a> mf.) \u2013 vokset kraftigt i portef\u00f8ljen, s\u00e5 overvej at f\u00e5 rebalanceret. Alts\u00e5 s\u00e6nke andelen af \u201cvinderaktier\u201d og k\u00f8b op i de segmenter, der er skrumpet i andel. Eksempelvis obligationer, small cap-aktier og defensive aktier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"2-small-cap-aktier\">2. Small cap-aktier<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Amerikanske small caps gavnes ofte af rentes\u00e6nkninger (pga. h\u00f8j g\u00e6ld), og flere st\u00f8rre finanshuse anbefaler at \u00f8ge andelen. Men generelt ser de fundamentalt ikke for godt ud, fordi de er relativt h\u00f8jt prisfastsat sammenlignet med andre andre small caps. Derfor er det v\u00e6rd at overveje i stedet at investere i europ\u00e6iske (inkl. UK) og japanske small caps, der er markant lavere prisfastsat. Der findes <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/etf\">ETF<\/a>\u2019er for alle de n\u00e6vnte aktie-grupper.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"3-defensive-aktier\">3. Defensive aktier<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Fedmemedicin har i et stykke tid givet medvind til dele af farma-sektoren. Forsyningssektoren har tidligt i \u00e5r ogs\u00e5 f\u00e5et \u00f8get opm\u00e6rksomhed for sin positive eksponering til AI-temaets forventede h\u00f8je energiforbrug i fremtiden. Men ogs\u00e5 de seneste uger for sine klassiske defensive dyder med en ikke-cykliske indtjening. Biotech gavnes af lavere renter og farma-sektorens jagt p\u00e5 nye guld\u00e5rer. De seneste uger har frygten for en recession i USA f\u00e5et pengene til at str\u00f8mme i retning af resten af de defensive aktier. S\u00e5 der er flere muligheder i disse aktier, hvis man vil g\u00e5 mere defensivt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"4-ravarer\">4. R\u00e5varer<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Prisen p\u00e5 guld er steget kraftigt de seneste \u00e5r, og er hen over sommeren steget til rekordh\u00f8je 2500 $ pr ounce. Fysisk guld har gode portef\u00f8ljeegenskaber. Det stabiliserer udsvingene i b\u00e5de en ren aktieportef\u00f8lje og en blandet portef\u00f8lje af aktier og obligationer, fordi det ofte stiger i perioder, hvor aktier eller obligationer ikke g\u00f8r det. Alene af den grund kan det v\u00e6re en fornuftig m\u00e5de at sprede sin risiko. P\u00e5 det seneste er der endelig ogs\u00e5 kommet liv i guldmineaktierne, der slet ikke har fulgt med guldprisen op. Derfor er de ogs\u00e5 en overvejelse v\u00e6rd, selv om de opf\u00f8rer sig noget anderledes end selve prisen p\u00e5 guld.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Ovenst\u00e5ende er ikke en anbefaling til at k\u00f8be eller s\u00e6lge v\u00e6rdipapirer<\/em>.\u00a0<em>Dette blogindl\u00e6g er udarbejdet til informationsform\u00e5l. Blogindl\u00e6gget udg\u00f8r s\u00e5ledes ikke investeringsm\u00e6ssig eller anden r\u00e5dgivning. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast. Finansielle instrumenter kan b\u00e5de stige og falde i v\u00e6rdi. Der er en risiko for, at du ikke f\u00e5r de investerede penge tilbage.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Aktiemarkedet har ikke st\u00e5et stille i ferien. \u00d8konom Frank Hvid kommer med fire overvejelser til sin fremtidige portef\u00f8lje i et aktiemarked, som den seneste m\u00e5ned har v\u00e6ret pr\u00e6get af rotation. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":68524,"featured_media":61093,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1291],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-61019","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/08\/Future-tunnel_1200x435-150x54.jpg","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/08\/Future-tunnel_1200x435-150x54.jpg 150w, 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