En gentagelse af dotcom-boblen?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
AI-manien har sendt flere af de store tech-aktier i vejret i \u00e5r:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
- \n
- Nvidia: + 116% \u00c5TD<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Meta<\/a>: + 46% \u00c5TD<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Alphabet<\/a>: + 17% \u00c5TD<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- TSMC: + 51% \u00c5TD<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
Mange har, med rette, trukket en parallel fra den nuv\u00e6rende AI-eufori tilbage til dotcom-boblen, der sprang i starten af 00’erne.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Boblen sprang som f\u00f8lge af store overinvesteringer i de dengang hippe internet-aktier. Allerede i midten af 1990\u2019erne begyndte internettet at blive mainstream, da teknologien hurtigt vandt indpas i vores dagligdag.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Det medf\u00f8rte en b\u00f8lge af interesse i nye internet-aktier, og det sendte priserne i vejret. Det hele kulminerede, da boblen sprang i marts \u00e5r 2000. Det bet\u00f8d blandt andet, at Nasdaq<\/a>-indekset faldt med 77% i de f\u00f8lgende m\u00e5neder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/08\/Graf_AI_1-620x465.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nNASDAQ composite index udvikling fra 1994 til 2005. Kilde: https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Dot-com_bubble<\/a><\/em>. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Masse-eufori for en ny teknologi er alts\u00e5 f\u00e6llesn\u00e6vneren mellem i dag og dengang. For at forst\u00e5, hvorvidt vi st\u00e5r overfor et lignende scenarie i dag, er vi n\u00f8dt til at se p\u00e5 de faresignaler, som der var, f\u00f8r dotcom-boblen sprang.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
De tre faresignaler for bobler<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Der var prim\u00e6rt tre faresignaler, der indikerede, at aktiemarkedet i slutningen af 90’erne var blevet pustet op til et uholdbart niveau:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n1: Masse-eufori.<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
Grundet \u2018markedsmanien\u2019 om internettet blev der skabt et investeringsmilj\u00f8, hvor selskaber n\u00e6rmest kunne tiltr\u00e6kke store millionbel\u00f8b p\u00e5 baggrund af en powerpoint-pr\u00e6sentation. Det bet\u00f8d, at mange investorer satte den kritiske sans over styr i h\u00e5bet om at finde de store internet-aktievindere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
2: Nye metrikker blev taget i brug for at retf\u00e6rdigg\u00f8re de h\u00f8je v\u00e6rdians\u00e6ttelser.<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
I takt med at markederne konstant blev pustet op, blev v\u00e6rdians\u00e6ttelserne ogs\u00e5 afkoblet mere og mere fra de underliggende regnskabstal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trods mange internet-selskaber ikke var i n\u00e6rheden af at genere en reel oms\u00e6tning, kastede investorerne alligevel penge efter selskaberne.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For at retf\u00e6rdigg\u00f8re de h\u00f8je v\u00e6rdians\u00e6ttelser begyndte mange selskaber at benytte andre metrikker. Eksempelvis r\u00e5dede mange internet-selskaber investorerne til ikke at fokusere p\u00e5 regnskabstallene, men derimod p\u00e5 antallet af bes\u00f8gende p\u00e5 hjemmesiden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
3: Skyh\u00f8je price-to-earnings-v\u00e6rdier.<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
P\u00e5 sit h\u00f8jeste niveau l\u00e5 Price-to-earning<\/a> p\u00e5 +200 for Nasdaq composite indekset. Dette tal er i sig selv h\u00f8jt, men det sande billede var endnu v\u00e6rre, da mange selskaber slet ikke genererede et overskud og derfor kunne tr\u00e6kke P\/E l\u00e6ngere op.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n
N\u00e5r vi betragter de tre ovenst\u00e5ende faresignaler, kan vi hurtigt se, at punkt 1 ogs\u00e5 g\u00f8r sig g\u00e6ldende i dag: AI-aktier har over den seneste tid nydt godt af den store hype.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
AI-akiterne adskiller sig dog markant fra dotcom-boblen p\u00e5 den absolut vigtigste metrik: Price-to-earnings (P\/E). <\/p>\n\n\n\n
P\/E-multiplen er den altafg\u00f8rende n\u00f8gle til at belyse, om vi st\u00e5r over for en AI-boble eller ej. P\/E er ogs\u00e5 kendt som kiloprisen, og den fort\u00e6ller, hvor h\u00f8j en pris aktiemarkedet vil betale pr. dollar p\u00e5 bundlinjen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sagt p\u00e5 en anden m\u00e5de, kan vi se P\/E som kanariefuglen i kulminen, der fort\u00e6ller os, om aktiekurserne er afkoblet fra de underliggende fundamentaler: Jo h\u00f8jere P\/E, desto mere afkoblet er aktiekurserne fra den underliggende indtjening p\u00e5 bundlinjen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Det betyder ogs\u00e5, at store aktiestigninger i sig selv ikke er et faresignal. Store stigninger p\u00e5 relativt kort tid er kun et faresignal, hvis ikke selskabernes top- og bundlinje f\u00f8lger med op. Det gjorde de ikke op til dotcom-boblen sprang, men det har de gjort i dag.<\/p>\n\n\n
\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/08\/Graf_2_AI-1024x484.png\")
<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\nHistorisk udvikling for Nasdaq composite indeks<\/em>. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Som n\u00e6vnt l\u00e5 P\/E for Nasdaq-indekset p\u00e5 +200. Til sammenligning har indexet i dag en P\/E p\u00e5 ca. 30. Nvidia – en af de dyreste AI-aktier – har en P\/E p\u00e5 61.<\/p>\n\n\n
\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/08\/Graf_3_AI-1024x940.png\")
<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\nHistorisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Under de nuv\u00e6rende forhold tyder meget p\u00e5, at vi ikke st\u00e5r over for en truende AI-boble: Nok er mange tech-aktier steget, men deres regnskabstal har fulgt trop. Dette kan selvf\u00f8lgelig \u00e6ndre sig, og hvis euforien forts\u00e6tter, kan P\/E-v\u00e6rdien p\u00e5 markedsniveau hurtigt blive bl\u00e6st op i uholdbare niveauer. Det er slet ikke et umuligt scenarie, da AI-industrien lige nu st\u00e5r overfor et stort problem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
AI befinder sig lige nu i et indtjenings-d\u00f8dvande<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
I hele AI-industrien er der lige nu en stor elefant i rummet. AI-teknologi er p\u00e5 nuv\u00e6rende tidspunkt en meget d\u00e5rlig forretning. De store tech-mastodonter som Microsoft<\/a>, Alphabet, Apple<\/a>, Tesla<\/a>, Amazon<\/a> og Meta kaster mange milliarder af dollars efter udviklingen af de f\u00f8rende AI-systemer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Problemet er, at disse AI-systemer fortsat ikke generer nogen n\u00e6vnev\u00e6rdig indtjening: Microsoft fors\u00f8ger at s\u00e6lge deres Co-pilot service, men har indtil nu ikke haft det store held med det. Alphabet tjener stort set ingen penge p\u00e5 deres AI, Gemini, selvom de har pr\u00f8vet at s\u00e6lge en AI-drevet Google-service. Det samme billede tegner sig ogs\u00e5 for de andre tech-akt\u00f8rer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Man bruger ofte guldfeber-analogien til at beskrive, hvad vi i dag ser udspille sig i AI-industrien. Vi har en r\u00e6kke selskaber, der s\u00e6lger hakker og skovle (Bl.a. Nvidia, TSMC, ASML), og vi har en r\u00e6kke selskaber, der febrilsk graver efter guld.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Som sagt tjener guldgraverne p\u00e5 nuv\u00e6rende tidspunkt ingen penge, men det g\u00f8r dem, der s\u00e6lger hakkerne og skovlene derimod. Nvidia er den suver\u00e6nt st\u00f8rste leverand\u00f8r af “hakker” og “skovle”, da de sidder p\u00e5 90% af markedet for AI-tr\u00e6ningscomputere (Datacenter GPUs).<\/p>\n\n\n
\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/08\/billede_AI.png\")
<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\nDet stiller dog Nvidia i en s\u00e5rbar situation, for hvis de store tech-giganter beslutter sig for at reducere indk\u00f8bet af AI-tr\u00e6ningscomputere, s\u00e5 vil det have en st\u00e6rkt negativ effekt p\u00e5 Nvidias oms\u00e6tning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
En korrektion er ikke umulig<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Det stiller os derfor med det v\u00e6sentlige sp\u00f8rgsm\u00e5l: Hvis AI-euforien daler, vil det s\u00e5 f\u00e5 selskaber som Microsoft, Alphabet og Meta til at reducere deres indk\u00f8b af AI-tr\u00e6ningscomputere fra Nvidia?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Det er usandsynligt, for p\u00e5 den lange bane vil AI h\u00f8jst sandsynligt blive en guldrandet forretning. I fremtiden vil AI-assistenter begynde at dukke op overalt i vores hverdag, bl.a. i form af selvk\u00f8rende biler og humanoide husrobotter, der vil tage de huslige pligter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Dette er de store tech-giganter meget opm\u00e6rksomme p\u00e5. Derfor er de g\u00e5et ind i et kapl\u00f8b, som de ikke kan tr\u00e6kke sig ud af igen. Risikoen for at give konkurrenterne en kolossal stor langsigtet konkurrencefordel er simpelthen for stor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Men denne situation kan m\u00e5ske skabe grobund for en kommende korrektion af industrien: Markedet bliver bestemt ikke glad for at se, at tech-selskaberne kaster flere og atter flere milliarder af dollars efter en teknologi, der f\u00f8rst vil give en m\u00e6rkbar oms\u00e6tning flere \u00e5r ude i fremtiden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Denne utilfredshed kan medf\u00f8re en korrektion af AI-industrien, og i et s\u00e5dant scenarie vil det g\u00e5 h\u00e5rdest ud over “hakke”- og “skovle”-aktierne som Nvidia, TSMC, AMD, ASML, fordi det prim\u00e6rt er deres oms\u00e6tning, der er i fare for at blive reduceret.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
AI-teknologi er kommet for at blive, og det vil over de kommende \u00e5r forandre store dele af vores hverdag. I dag kan vi ikke g\u00e5 \u00e9n dag uden at g\u00e5 p\u00e5 internettet, og snart vil ikke kunne g\u00e5 \u00e9n dag uden at f\u00e5 hj\u00e6lp fra vores AI-assistenter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Det store sp\u00f8rgsm\u00e5l er, hvor lang tid det tager for tech-giganterne at grave ind til AI-guldet? Jo l\u00e6ngere tid der g\u00e5r, desto st\u00f8rre sandsynlighed er der for en korrektion af AI-industrien. S\u00e5 p\u00e5 nuv\u00e6rende tidspunkt mener jeg, at det er usandsynligt, at vi st\u00e5r over for en decideret AI-boble.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Jeg ejer aktier i Nvidia, Apple, Tesla, Microsoft, Alphabet, TSMC og Meta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ovenst\u00e5ende er ikke en anbefaling til at k\u00f8be eller s\u00e6lge v\u00e6rdipapirer<\/em>. Dette blogindl\u00e6g er udarbejdet til informationsform\u00e5l. Blogindl\u00e6gget udg\u00f8r s\u00e5ledes ikke investeringsm\u00e6ssig eller anden r\u00e5dgivning. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast. Finansielle instrumenter kan b\u00e5de stige og falde i v\u00e6rdi. Der er en risiko for, at du ikke f\u00e5r de investerede penge tilbage.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Investorer har i stor stil handlet med AI-aktier de seneste \u00e5r, derfor vil flere m\u00e5ske spekulere i, om vi er i gang med at bl\u00e6se en ny boble op, som kan springe n\u00e5r som helst. 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- Alphabet<\/a>: + 17% \u00c5TD<\/li>\n\n\n\n