{"id":61937,"date":"2024-08-26T13:05:53","date_gmt":"2024-08-26T11:05:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/?p=61937"},"modified":"2026-03-11T15:40:29","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T14:40:29","slug":"federal-reserve-jackson-hole-fik-investorerne-den-haabede-rentefriloeber","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/federal-reserve-jackson-hole-fik-investorerne-den-haabede-rentefriloeber\/","title":{"rendered":"Federal Reserve Jackson Hole: Fik investorerne den h\u00e5bede rentefril\u00f8ber?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Formanden for Federal Reserve Jerome Powell \u00e5bnede officielt rentebanen med sin tale i Jackson Hole. Sp\u00f8rgsm\u00e5let er nu, hvor meget banen reelt st\u00e5r \u00e5ben og hvordan investorerne vil fortolke og administrere den \u00e5benhed?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Topm\u00f8de i Wyoming<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Sidste uges m\u00f8de i Jackson Hole var p\u00e5 den ene side im\u00f8deset med sp\u00e6nding. Samtidig var der formentlig reelt kun meget f\u00e5, som havde regnet med, at der ville ske st\u00f8rre \u201dting\u201d, som investorerne ikke allerede havde indstillet sig p\u00e5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201dTiden er kommet til at justere\u201d<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Jerome Powell gav officielt startskuddet til det, som investorerne allerede havde indstillet sig p\u00e5. Tiden er kommet til at justere pengepolitikken og s\u00e6nke renterne af flere \u00e5rsager. For det f\u00f8rste kan centralbanken nu ane, at inflationen varigt kan komme ned i n\u00e6rheden af 2 % indenfor en overskuelig periode. Samtidig er det nu tid til at rette fokus mod den anden af centralbankens to prioriteter: At sikre v\u00e6kst og fuld besk\u00e6ftigelse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Godt arbejde, FED<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Det bliver ikke sagt s\u00e5 ofte, og en centralbankinstitution f\u00e5r ikke den anerkendelse, hvis\/n\u00e5r man har gjort noget godt og opn\u00e5et det man ville: Centralbankerne var generelt alt for l\u00e6nge om at komme i gang med renteforh\u00f8jelserne i 2021, men FED har efter min mening ramt tidspunktet, hvor det var tiden at s\u00e6tte renten ned ganske godt. Det handler om at sikre, at prisstigningerne varigt er p\u00e5 et tilfredsstillende niveau. Det kr\u00e6ver t\u00e5lmodighed og stamina at modst\u00e5 opfordringer om at neds\u00e6tte renterne f\u00f8rtidigt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rente- og USD fald og aktiestigninger<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Investorerne reagerede m\u00e5ske lidt overraskende p\u00e5 Powells tale. Forventningerne har peget p\u00e5 en september neds\u00e6ttelse. Alligevel var der fald i markedsrenterne, som trak USD med ned og gav plads til aktiestigninger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Forventningerne er ganske store<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Ingen kender den n\u00f8jagtige vej for hastigheden i FEDs rentebane. \u201dDet afh\u00e6nger af\u201d, som man altid vil bruge om et mere n\u00f8jagtigt bud p\u00e5, hvad der kommer til at ske, n\u00e5r det er beh\u00e6ftet med st\u00f8rre usikkerhed, men her er et par bud:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

St\u00e5r renten p\u00e5 Mount Everest?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Renten i USA er ikke kun h\u00f8j, men meget h\u00f8j. Der er tre grunde til at forvente, at den f\u00f8rste neds\u00e6ttelse bliver en \u201ddouble\u201d. Intet er dog givet, og dobbelte neds\u00e6ttelser er ret us\u00e6dvanlige:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • Der er brug for at f\u00e5 niveauet lidt hurtigere ned end normalt. Det taler for at starte p\u00e5 0,5 %.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • ECB har allerede s\u00e6nket en gang, og de vil ogs\u00e5 s\u00e6nke p\u00e5 deres m\u00f8de i september. Ved at lave en dobbelt bev\u00e6gelse p\u00e5 2x 0,25 kommer FED og ECB p\u00e5 omgangsh\u00f8jde. <\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Hvis FED vil opdatere sine renteprikker og signalere, at renten kan komme til at falde mere end 100 basispoint i den resterende del af 2024. Inklusiv september m\u00f8det er der derudover kun to ordin\u00e6re m\u00f8der tilbage i 2024, og 3x 0,25 er \u201dkun 0,75\u201d. Det kan v\u00e6re lidt for lidt nu, n\u00e5r vi \u201dved\u201d, at rentebanen er \u00e5ben. Investorerne vil formentlig l\u00e6gge sig omkring 100 basispoint i 2024 efter Jackson Hole.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    ECB s\u00e6nker 2-3 gange yderligere<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    ECB topfolk signalerede i sidste uge, at deres rentebane ogs\u00e5 er \u00e5ben, og en ny renteneds\u00e6ttelse i september er sandsynlig. ECB har s\u00e6nket en gang, og her venter der formentlig \u201dop til 3 renteneds\u00e6ttelser\u201d mere i den resterende del af 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Nationalbanken f\u00f8lger ECB<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    Nationalbanken fulgte som forventet ECB med sin renteneds\u00e6ttelse tidligere i \u00e5r, og det samme vil sandsynligvis g\u00e6lde ved de kommende renteneds\u00e6ttelser. Der er styr p\u00e5 den danske inflation, og det har der v\u00e6ret de seneste kvartaler. Samtidig er EUR\/DKK ret stabil omkring 7,46, selv om der er sket en marginal sv\u00e6kkelse af den danske krone p\u00e5 det seneste. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Godt nyt for boligejere<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    Lavere renter er altid velkommen for nuv\u00e6rende boligejere. Det giver over tid lavere ydelser og samtidig prisstigninger. I hvilket omfang man kan se frem til lavere renter afh\u00e6nger af boligfinansieringen. Hvis l\u00e5ntagerne har et fastforrentet l\u00e5n, vil der kunne g\u00e5 lidt l\u00e6ngere end for de kortere l\u00e5n med rentetilpasning. Det skyldes, at vi allerede har en omvendt rentestruktur, hvor prisen p\u00e5 \u201dkorte\u201d penge er \u201dunaturlig\u201d h\u00f8j. Det afh\u00e6nger af hastighed, hvormed renteneds\u00e6ttelserne sker, og hvordan forventningerne udvikler sig i takt med neds\u00e6ttelserne.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Lavere renter stimulerer v\u00e6kst og er godt for aktion\u00e6rer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    Rentefordringerne (obligationer og indskud i banker) konkurrerer med aktierne om investorernes gunst. N\u00e5r renten falder, falder det forventede afkast i rentefordringer, og konkurrencen bliver dermed mindre i forhold til aktierne. Samtidig stimulerer lavere renter v\u00e6ksten i samfundet, og giver stigende lyst til at investere og privatforbruge. Lavere renter har derfor en positiv aktieeffekt i det mindste over tid, og is\u00e6r n\u00e5r vi kommer fra et ret h\u00f8jt renteniveau, som tilf\u00e6ldet er nu set over de seneste 10 \u00e5r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Bankaktier \u201dregner\u201d med 3 neds\u00e6ttelser<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    En r\u00e6kke danske banker har udmeldt deres forventninger om udviklingen i nettorenteindt\u00e6gterne, som er ret vigtige for denne specifikke investeringscase med gennemsnitligt tre forventede neds\u00e6ttelser. Det rammer indenfor skiven plus\/minus. Det vil derfor v\u00e6re forventeligt, hvis bankaktierne ikke ekstraordin\u00e6rt reagerer p\u00e5 sidste uges udtalelser selv om det normen, at trend (rentefald) kan v\u00e6re en st\u00f8rre faktor end niveau (hvor meget).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Vil \u201dde fantastiske\u201d 7 stadig v\u00e6re fantastiske?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    Investorernes lyst til at forblive koncentreret i de st\u00f8rste amerikanske selskaber har v\u00e6ret det store investeringstema det seneste \u00e5r. Vil rente\u00e6ndringerne \u00e6ndre det? M\u00e5ske\/ m\u00e5ske ikke\/delvis?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Hvordan udvikler rentebanen sig?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    Hvis der nu starter en \u201drentebane\u201d, hvor FED Funds ud fra et meget h\u00f8jt udgangspunkt halverer over de kommende 12 m\u00e5neder, vil det have en st\u00f8rre indflydelse p\u00e5 real\u00f8konomien, og\/eller investorerne vil k\u00f8be ind p\u00e5 den pr\u00e6mis, og det er jo p\u00e5 kort sigt udviklingen i forventningerne, der er med til at bev\u00e6ge aktiekurserne.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Hvis vi derimod f\u00e5r en meget gradvis neds\u00e6ttelse af renterne, og det nye normale for FED Funds ligger i niveauet 3,5-3,75 %, vil konsekvensen i \u00f8konomien og for investorerne formentlig blive lidt mindre. I et s\u00e5dant scenarie, er det ikke urealistisk, at \u201dde fantastiske\u201d forbliver om ikke fantastiske, s\u00e5 dog meget efterspurgte udover deres \u00f8konomiske udvikling vel at m\u00e6rke.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Gode muligheder for en god \u00e5rsafslutning<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    Lavere renter er nok godt for aktierne, men udgangspunktet og niveauet giver aktuelt ikke plads til meget store stigninger de kommende m\u00e5neder. Vi er p\u00e5 vej ind i lunefulde september, hvor en svag jobrapport i givet fald kan g\u00f8re en kortsigtet forskel med hensyn til v\u00e6kst og risiko. Samtidig er oktober-december normalt aktieh\u00f8jtid p\u00e5 aktiemarkedet med gode sammenh\u00e6ngende afkast. Mulighederne for at det ogs\u00e5 sker i \u00e5r er fornuftige.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Ovenst\u00e5ende er ikke en anbefaling til at k\u00f8be eller s\u00e6lge v\u00e6rdipapirer<\/em>. Dette blogindl\u00e6g er udarbejdet til informationsform\u00e5l. Blogindl\u00e6gget udg\u00f8r s\u00e5ledes ikke investeringsm\u00e6ssig eller anden r\u00e5dgivning. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast. Finansielle instrumenter kan b\u00e5de stige og falde i v\u00e6rdi. Der er en risiko for, at du ikke f\u00e5r de investerede penge tilbage.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    I fredags talte formanden for Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, i Jackson Hole, hvor han \u00e5bnede rentebanen. \u00d8konom Per Hansen giver sit syn p\u00e5, hvad det kommer til at betyde. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40015,"featured_media":56465,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1291],"tags":[1612],"class_list":["post-61937","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-persunivers"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2023\/12\/Per_gronneblade_1200x430-150x54.jpg","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2023\/12\/Per_gronneblade_1200x430-150x54.jpg 150w, 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