{"id":62280,"date":"2024-09-19T10:43:32","date_gmt":"2024-09-19T08:43:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/?p=62280"},"modified":"2026-03-11T15:14:35","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T14:14:35","slug":"rentefald-er-godt-for-aktier-men-blev-federal-reserve-misforstaaet-og-overfortolket","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/rentefald-er-godt-for-aktier-men-blev-federal-reserve-misforstaaet-og-overfortolket\/","title":{"rendered":"Rentefald er godt for aktier, men blev Federal Reserve misforst\u00e5et og overfortolket?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Federal Reserve leverede onsdag en renteneds\u00e6ttelse, som investorerne havde sv\u00e6rt ved at ford\u00f8je konsekvenserne af. De b\u00f8r v\u00e6re gode, men tvivlen nager, i hvert fald p\u00e5 kort sigt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>P\u00e5 forh\u00e5nd var der en lille overv\u00e6gt af mennesker, som troede p\u00e5 en 0,5 procentpoint renteneds\u00e6ttelse.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Majoriteten fik ret, da FED med Powell i spidsen pr\u00e6senterede en renteneds\u00e6ttelse p\u00e5 0,5 procentpoint.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Investorerne gl\u00e6dede sig kortvarigt over en dobbelt neds\u00e6ttelse, og det sendte aktierne op. Men da handelsdagen var slut, var det sm\u00e5t med klapsalverne. Og selvom dagen ogs\u00e5 startede med st\u00f8rre stigninger i b\u00e5de S&amp;P 500, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/academy\/dow-jones\">Dow Jones<\/a> og <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/academy\/nasdaq-100\">Nasdaq<\/a>-indekset, blev de vekslet til mindre fald.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"mange-gode-forklaringer\"><strong>Mange gode forklaringer<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>FED er kommet en anelse bagud med at tilpasse pengepolitikken. Udover g\u00e5rsdagens m\u00f8de er der stadig to tilbage i \u00e5r, og for at f\u00e5 renteudviklingen til at passe med \u201dprikkerne\u201d, som kan beskrives som centralbankens \u201drentevejviser\u201d, blev der startet med en 0,5% point neds\u00e6ttelse. Renten vil formentlig blive nedsat med 2&#215;0,25 basispoint p\u00e5 de kommende m\u00f8der, s\u00e5 vi alt i alt f\u00e5r samlede renteneds\u00e6ttelser p\u00e5 100 basispoint i 2024.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Det samme f\u00e5r vi formentlig i 2025, og lander dermed p\u00e5 FED funds p\u00e5 3,25-3,5% forventet. Det er lidt mindre end, hvad investorerne havde forventet i neds\u00e6ttelse i 2025. Formentlig er det derfor, at det indledende USD fald blev vekslet til u\u00e6ndret ved 22 tiden i g\u00e5r aftes, dansk tid. Se venligst figur 1.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Renten bliver ikke sat ekstraordin\u00e6rt ned, fordi \u00f8konomien har det v\u00e6rre, men p\u00e5 grund af prim\u00e6rt to forhold. F\u00f8rst skal vejen tilbage til en rente \u201dnormalisering\u201d g\u00e5 lidt hurtigere, og dern\u00e6st skal inflationen tillade det og er p\u00e5 vej ned mod 2%. Der er ikke tale om en \u201dn\u00f8dneds\u00e6ttelse\u201d.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1001\" height=\"642\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/09\/USD_GRAF.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-62281\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/09\/USD_GRAF.png 1001w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/09\/USD_GRAF-620x398.png 620w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/09\/USD_GRAF-150x96.png 150w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/09\/USD_GRAF-768x493.png 768w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/09\/USD_GRAF-500x321.png 500w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/09\/USD_GRAF-800x513.png 800w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/09\/USD_GRAF-370x237.png 370w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/09\/USD_GRAF-270x173.png 270w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/09\/USD_GRAF-470x300.png 470w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/09\/USD_GRAF-570x366.png 570w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/09\/USD_GRAF-740x475.png 740w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1001px) 100vw, 1001px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Figur 1: Kursudvikling for USD d. 18 september 2024. Kilde: Nordnet<\/em>.<br><em>Historiske og tidligere afkast og\/eller kursudviklinger kan ikke anvendes som p\u00e5lidelig indikator for fremtidige afkast og\/eller kursudvikling.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"malurten-i-baegeret-med-triple-minus-0-3\"><strong>Malurten i b\u00e6geret med triple minus 0,3%<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Normalt ville en dobbelt renteneds\u00e6ttelse v\u00e6kke gl\u00e6de, og den ville ogs\u00e5 give stigende <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/aktier\/kurser\">aktiekurser<\/a>. Det skete ikke. I stedet blev det til triple minus 0,3% for S&amp;P 500, Dow Jones og Nasdaq-indekset.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nogen m\u00e5 v\u00e6re blevet skuffet, mens andre kan v\u00e6re blevet foruroligede over \u201dhvad ved Federal Reserve, som vi ikke ved, siden de starter med en dobbelt\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Mere godt end skidt trods alt, men hvad med september?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Der er gode argumenter for, at det gik, som det gik. Det eneste investorerne var ret sikre p\u00e5, det var, at der kom en renteneds\u00e6ttelse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hvis n\u00f8gletallene ikke bliver meget svagere (FED signalerer en forventning om omtrent 2% v\u00e6kst i b\u00e5de 2024 og 2025), afspejler renteneds\u00e6ttelsen og forventningerne, at inflationen er p\u00e5 vej ned uden en recession, og dermed er b\u00e5de renteniveauet og realrenten for h\u00f8j.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For aktiernes vedkommende er det afg\u00f8rende, at investorerne k\u00f8ber ind p\u00e5 den pr\u00e6mis. M\u00e5ske er den skuffende aktiekursudvikling onsdag et billede p\u00e5 den normale usikkerhed, nerv\u00f8sitet og kortsigtet ageren efter centralbankm\u00f8der tilsat, at vi stadig befinder os i september, som jo har for vane at v\u00e6re en besv\u00e6rlig investeringsm\u00e5ned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Ovenst\u00e5ende er ikke en anbefaling til at k\u00f8be eller s\u00e6lge v\u00e6rdipapirer<\/em>.<em>Dette blogindl\u00e6g er udarbejdet til informationsform\u00e5l. Blogindl\u00e6gget udg\u00f8r s\u00e5ledes ikke investeringsm\u00e6ssig eller anden r\u00e5dgivning. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast. Finansielle instrumenter kan b\u00e5de stige og falde i v\u00e6rdi. Der er en risiko for, at du ikke f\u00e5r de investerede penge tilbage.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>D. 18 september kom Federal Reserve med den f\u00f8rste renteneds\u00e6ttelse i over fire \u00e5r, men det gav kun kortvarrigt gl\u00e6de blandt investorerne. Hvorfor den ikke blev langvarrig, g\u00f8r Per Hansen dig klogere p\u00e5 i denne artikel. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40015,"featured_media":62288,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1288],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-62280","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markedet"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/09\/Per_H-rente-150x54.jpg","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/09\/Per_H-rente-150x54.jpg 150w, 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