{"id":62903,"date":"2024-11-01T15:03:17","date_gmt":"2024-11-01T14:03:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/?p=62903"},"modified":"2024-11-01T15:06:04","modified_gmt":"2024-11-01T14:06:04","slug":"praesidentvalget-2024-muligheder-og-risici-for-investorer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/praesidentvalget-2024-muligheder-og-risici-for-investorer\/","title":{"rendered":"Pr\u00e6sidentvalget 2024: Muligheder og risici for investorer"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Som privat investor er det vigtigt at holde sig orienteret om de store globale begivenheder, der kan p\u00e5virke aktiemarkederne. En af de mest omtalte begivenheder i \u00f8jeblikket er det amerikanske pr\u00e6sidentvalg mellem Kamala Harris og Donald Trump, som finder sted den 5. november.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tiden op til et amerikansk pr\u00e6sidentvalg kan v\u00e6re en periode med \u00f8get volatilitet, da usikkerhed om fremtiden skaber nerv\u00f8sitet blandt investorerne. Eksempelvis faldt aktiemarkedet en smule i perioden op til valget i 2016, hvor Donald Trump overraskede mange med sin sejr.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anderledes s\u00e5 det ud efter valget. Her skete der en solid stigning i aktiekurserne, men om det skyldtes Trump-sejren, eller blot at valget var overst\u00e5et, og markedet fik mere klarhed om fremtiden, det er mere uvist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det er dog v\u00e6rd at huske p\u00e5, at pr\u00e6sidentvalget kun er \u00e9n af mange faktorer, der p\u00e5virker aktiemarkederne. Krigen i Europa, renter og inflation spiller ogs\u00e5 en afg\u00f8rende rolle i det nuv\u00e6rende investeringsklima. Og markedet har det med hurtigt at glemme og skifte fokus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S\u00e5 selvom valget i USA vil tiltr\u00e6kke meget opm\u00e6rksomhed, er det vigtigt at tage et bredt perspektiv p\u00e5 ens investeringer. Derfor er det ogs\u00e5 vigtigt, at ens portef\u00f8lje er robust nok til at modst\u00e5 b\u00e5de politiske og \u00f8konomiske forstyrrelser, og ikke er h\u00e6ngt op p\u00e5 et bestemt udfald.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trumps tidligere pr\u00e6sidentperiode<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Trump har allerede v\u00e6ret igennem manegen f\u00f8r. Imellem 2017 og 2021 var Trump pr\u00e6sident i USA, og i den periode steg S&P 500 indekset, fra slut 2016 til slut 2020 med i alt ca. 81,3%. Skulle han blive valgt igen, kan vi derfor m\u00e5ske l\u00e6re lidt af historien.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Data viser, at afkastet i denne periode var drevet af to sektorer i markedet. Faktisk var det kun informationsteknologi og cyklisk forbrug, som pr\u00e6sterede bedre end det samlede S&P 500 indeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sundhedssektoren pr\u00e6sterede n\u00e6sten p\u00e5 lige fod med S&P 500 indekset, mens resten af sektorerne l\u00e5 under indekset. V\u00e6rst s\u00e5 det ud for energisektoren, der i perioden n\u00e6sten blev halveret.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kilde: https:\/\/novelinvestor.com\/sector-performance\/<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det var dog ogs\u00e5 en periode, hvor andre faktorer spillede ind. For eksempel var verden ramt af COVID-19, som gjorde stort indtryk p\u00e5 markedet.
Blandt andet var det en af de store faktorer, der gjorde, at teknologi og cyklisk forbrug tog et stort spring. Derfor er det heller ikke sikkert, at det er teknologi, der bliver den eventuelle h\u00f8jdespringer i en ny pr\u00e6sidentperiode.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Har du overv\u00e6gt i portef\u00f8ljen?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Som privat investor kan du overveje at gennemg\u00e5 din portef\u00f8lje for potentiel overv\u00e6gt til forskellige temaer og sektorer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Har du for eksempel overv\u00e6gt af virksomheder med fokus p\u00e5 gr\u00f8n energi og b\u00e6redygtighed, s\u00e5 kan det betyde lidt ekstra skvulp, da det ofte er et emne, der deler vandene mellem de to kandidater.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I USA er healthcare ogs\u00e5 et emne med stort fokus. S\u00e5 har du overv\u00e6gt af selskaber som Novo Nordisk<\/a> og Eli Lilly, kan det ogs\u00e5 v\u00e6re, at du skal gennemg\u00e5 portef\u00f8ljen for at skabe mere balance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
\n

Trump-sejr: Omr\u00e5der der kan trives<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
    \n
  1. Fossile br\u00e6ndstoffer (energi)<\/strong>
    Aktier<\/a> som ExxonMobil og Chevron vil sandsynligvis trives, hvis Trump vinder, da han formentligt vil f\u00f8re en politik, der fremmer fossile br\u00e6ndstoffer. Hans tidligere administration sl\u00e6kkede ogs\u00e5 p\u00e5 milj\u00f8regler, mens de ogs\u00e5 st\u00f8ttede olieboringer og kulindustri.
    <\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Forsvar<\/strong>
    Lockheed Martin, Raytheon Technologies og andre forsvarsaktier kan se mere positive forhold. Trump har historisk set st\u00f8ttet \u00f8get forsvarsbudget, og et fokus p\u00e5 “America First” politik kan ogs\u00e5 f\u00f8re til \u00f8get milit\u00e6r styrke.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
      \n
    1. Finanssektoren<\/strong>
      Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase og andre store banker vil kunne drage fordel af mindre regulering. Under Trumps tidligere administration blev finansreguleringer l\u00f8snet, hvilket gav banker og finansielle institutioner mere fleksibilitet.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
        \n
      1. Byggeri og infrastruktur<\/strong>
        Selskaber som         Caterpillar<\/a> og Deere & Co. kan se \u00f8get eftersp\u00f8rgsel, da Trump tidligere har talt om at \u00f8ge investeringerne i amerikansk infrastruktur. Han har ofte talt for massive infrastrukturprojekter, hvilket kan gavne byggesektoren.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

        Trump-sejr: Omr\u00e5der der kan opleve pres<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
          \n
        1. Gr\u00f8n energi<\/strong>
          Vestas og \u00d8rsted, som er st\u00e6rke inden for vedvarende energi, kan opleve modvind. Trump har historisk set st\u00f8ttet kul- og olieindustrien, og han har vist mindre interesse for vedvarende energi.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
            \n
          1. Told-eksponerede aktier og udenlandsk produktion<\/strong>
            Apple<\/a> og andre selskaber med store forsyningsk\u00e6der uden for USA, kan komme til at opleve et stort pres. Det samme g\u00e6lder for udenlandske selskaber, der har et stort marked i USA, da Trump har et stort fokus p\u00e5 indenlandsk produktion og har talt for told p\u00e5 importerede varer. Specielt kinesiske varer kan komme under pres.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
              \n
            1. Europ\u00e6iske bilproducenter<\/strong>
              Volkswagen<\/a> og BMW<\/a> vil kunne blive ramt, hvis Trump genoptager truslerne om told p\u00e5 europ\u00e6iske biler, ligesom kategorien ovenover. Det ville kunne skabe pres p\u00e5 den europ\u00e6iske bilindustri og g\u00f8re eksport til USA dyrere.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n
              \n

              Kamala Harris-sejr: Omr\u00e5der der kan trives<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
                \n
              1. Gr\u00f8n energi<\/strong>
                Vestas, \u00d8rsted, Siemens Gamesa og andre vedvarende energiselskaber vil sandsynligvis drage fordel af en Harris-sejr. Demokraterne har en st\u00e6rk platform for at st\u00f8tte gr\u00f8n omstilling og klimainitiativer, hvilket kunne \u00f8ge investeringerne i sol- og vindenergi.
                <\/li>\n\n\n\n
              2. Sundhedssektoren (b\u00e6redygtig v\u00e6kst)<\/strong>
                Sundhedsselskaber som UnitedHealth og Centene kunne drage fordel af Harris\u2019 fokus p\u00e5 et mere omfattende sundhedssystem. Det kan f\u00f8re til \u00f8get eftersp\u00f8rgsel p\u00e5 medicinske l\u00f8sninger til bl.a. kroniske sygdomme.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
                  \n
                1. Elbilsproducenter<\/strong>
                  Tesla<\/a> og Nio<\/a> kan potentielt trives under en Harris-administration, der er mere positive p\u00e5 gr\u00f8nne tiltag. Dette kan omfatte incitamenter til b\u00e5de produktion og k\u00f8b af elbiler, hvilket vil v\u00e6re en stor fordel for industrien. Dog skal man v\u00e6re opm\u00e6rksom p\u00e5, at Elon Musk har givet sin st\u00f8tte til Trump, der ellers ikke er den st\u00f8rste supporter af gr\u00f8n energi.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
                    \n
                  1. Infrastruktur (gr\u00f8n omstilling)<\/strong>
                    Selskaber som NextEra Energy, der fokuserer p\u00e5 gr\u00f8n infrastruktur og energieffektivitet, vil sandsynligvis opleve v\u00e6kst, da Harris\u2019 plan potentielt vil fokusere p\u00e5 b\u00e5de b\u00e6redygtig infrastruktur og opgradering af energinettet.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

                    Kamala Harris-sejr: Omr\u00e5der der kan opleve pres<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
                      \n
                    1. Fossile br\u00e6ndstoffer<\/strong>
                      ExxonMobil, Chevron og andre i den fossile energisektor vil sandsynligvis komme under pres. Demokraterne har gjort klart, at de vil reducere CO2-udledningen og flytte fokus mod vedvarende energikilder, hvilket vil begr\u00e6nse fossile selskabers v\u00e6kstmuligheder.
                      <\/li>\n\n\n\n
                    2. Farmaceutisk industri<\/strong>
                      Pfizer, Merck, og andre store farmaceutiske virksomheder vil kunne opleve pres, da Harris sandsynligvis vil fors\u00f8ge at regulere medicinpriser og forbedre adgang til sundhedspleje, hvilket kan betyde lavere profitmarginer p\u00e5 medicin hvis hun kommer igennem med dette.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
                        \n
                      1. Traditionel bilindustri<\/strong>
                        Ford<\/a>, General Motors<\/a> og andre bilproducenter, som er afh\u00e6ngige af fossilbaserede k\u00f8ret\u00f8jer, kan se udfordringer, hvis Harris’ politik fremmer elektriske k\u00f8ret\u00f8jer frem for benzin- og dieseldrevne biler.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

                        <\/p>\n\n\n\n

                        N\u00e5r man ser listen ovenfor, er det vigtigt at huske p\u00e5, at det blot er gisninger. Vi ved aldrig, hvordan markedet vil reagere p\u00e5 vigtige begivenheder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                        Som investor kan man hurtigt stirre sig blindt p\u00e5 bestemte udfald, for eksempel at virksomheder indenfor gr\u00f8n energi vil blive negativt ramt af en Trump sejr og positivt ramt af en Harris sejr, men det kan ogs\u00e5 t\u00e6nkes, at markedet allerede har regnet forskellige scenarier ind, og derfor kan reagere positivt p\u00e5 en nyhed, vi normalt ville vurdere som negativ for en sektor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                        Samtidig ved vi ogs\u00e5, at selvom begge kandidater har forskellige synspunkter, s\u00e5 er det ikke altid, at de kan f\u00e5 gennemf\u00f8rt deres politik.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                        Ovenst\u00e5ende er ikke en anbefaling til at k\u00f8be eller s\u00e6lge v\u00e6rdipapirer<\/em>.Dette blogindl\u00e6g er udarbejdet til informationsform\u00e5l. Blogindl\u00e6gget udg\u00f8r s\u00e5ledes ikke investeringsm\u00e6ssig eller anden r\u00e5dgivning. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast. Finansielle instrumenter kan b\u00e5de stige og falde i v\u00e6rdi. Der er en risiko for, at du ikke f\u00e5r de investerede penge tilbage.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n


                        <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                        Om lidt er der valg i USA, og pr\u00e6sidentvalget har historisk set haft stor indflydelse p\u00e5 aktiemarkedet. Og om det bliver det Trump eller Harris, det kan f\u00e5 stor betydning for investorerne. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":68533,"featured_media":63025,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1288],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-62903","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markedet"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/10\/maelys-chassin-i24oXh2h4BQ-unsplashm-150x54.jpg","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/10\/maelys-chassin-i24oXh2h4BQ-unsplashm-150x54.jpg 150w, 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Og om det bliver det Trump eller Harris, det kan f\u00e5 stor betydning for investorerne. 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