{"id":62944,"date":"2024-10-28T13:41:59","date_gmt":"2024-10-28T12:41:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/?p=62944"},"modified":"2024-10-29T10:35:28","modified_gmt":"2024-10-29T09:35:28","slug":"tesla-derfor-blev-jeg-overbevist","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/tesla-derfor-blev-jeg-overbevist\/","title":{"rendered":"Tesla: Derfor blev jeg overbevist"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Jeg har pr\u00f8vet mange gange at f\u00e5 tallene til at matche, men det er ikke lykkedes. S\u00e5 nu giver jeg op, lader mig overbevise og t\u00e6nker p\u00e5, hvad der kan ske p\u00e5 den anden side af \u201dom mange \u00e5r\u201d. Alle lamperne blinker p\u00e5 samme tid, men en blinker mere end andre.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vilk\u00e5r g\u00e6lder for alle<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

I sidste uge afleverede Tesla<\/a> sit 3. kvartalsregnskab. Investorerne var naturligt nok forbeholdne forud. Det skyldes i et vist omfang de vilk\u00e5r, som g\u00e6lder. Ogs\u00e5 for Tesla. Forbrugerne er lidt tilbageholdne med at k\u00f8be nye biler. De t\u00e6nker p\u00e5 overgangen fra diesel\/benzin til el. P\u00e5 udviklingen i brugtpriserne. Batteriernes levetid, holdbarhed, v\u00e6gt, innovation, \u201drange\u201d og meget andet og m\u00e5ske ogs\u00e5 lidt p\u00e5 modstanden mod elbiler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Uj\u00e6vnt 2024<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Tesla har i 2024 leveret lidt uj\u00e6vnt. \u00c5ret startede med en ambition om 2 mio., men slutter med et h\u00e5b om mere end 1,8 millioner leverede biler. Hvis 4. kvartal alts\u00e5 byder p\u00e5 en v\u00e6kst p\u00e5 mere end 5 % over sidste \u00e5rs 484.507, og bringer totaltallet over 514.935. I s\u00e5 fald vil 2024 byde p\u00e5 den mindre v\u00e6kst for \u00e5ret, som for blot nogle f\u00e5 m\u00e5neder siden synes at v\u00e6re meget vanskelig p\u00e5 grund af for meget modvind fra for mange sider.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Advarselslamper<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Det har heller ikke skortet p\u00e5 advarselslamper, om et skuffende 2024 for elbilssalget. Mod slutningen af kvartalet var der igen biltilbud, og det var helt naturligt at forvente, at kvartalet kunne v\u00e6ret kommet i hus med 462.890 leverede biler godt hjulpet p\u00e5 vej af lavere priser, som samtidig ville blive ved med at spise af kvartalets bruttomargin. Det skete ikke eller kun i meget begr\u00e6nset omfang.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Paralyserede konkurrenter<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Imens har investorerne ikke kunne undg\u00e5 at l\u00e6gge m\u00e6rke til konkurrenter med udfordringer. Stellantis (Fiat, Chrysler, PSA), Volkswagen<\/a>, BMW<\/a> og i sidste uge ogs\u00e5 Mercedes<\/a> har alle meldt, om udfordringer med indtjening drevet af de omtalte og velkendte forbehold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fra Kinasiden har vi konkurrenter, som er \u201df\u00f8dt elektriske\u201d; som m\u00e5ske\/formentlig f\u00e5r penge med hjemmefra i form af billige l\u00e5n eller andre statslige subsidier. Udfordringer er der nok af.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Samlet set var forventningerne, at Tesla ville v\u00e6re udfordret, og at indtjeningen i bildelen i et vist omfang afspejler de forhindringer, som vil v\u00e6re naturlige.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Virkeligheden var dog en noget anden og langt mere positiv. Investorerne var begejstrede, og mens aktien i eftermarkedet blev indikeret op med 12 %, blev slutresultatet en stigning p\u00e5 noget n\u00e6r det dobbelte: 22 %. Vildt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Var regnskabet fremragende og differentierende? For mig, ja.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stjerneregnskab<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Der var flere faktorer, som gjorde udslaget i regnskabet. Nogle af dem er naturligvis til diskussion. Fordi det drejer sig om Elon Musk og hans fremtidsvisioner; om hans ide om, at antal solgte biler til n\u00e6ste \u00e5r, vil udvise v\u00e6kstrater p\u00e5 20-30 %. At der kommer selvk\u00f8rende biler i et meget stort og kommercielt antal i l\u00f8bet af nogle \u00e5r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Men en ting kan man ikke tage fra Tesla. Deres evne til at tjene penge p\u00e5 det som ingen andre kan g\u00f8re eller ikke kan g\u00f8re i samme omfang. Bruttomarginalen steg til 19,8 %, og jeg blev n\u00e6rmest lidt bl\u00e6st bagover. Hold da op. Bilpriserne kan v\u00e6re p\u00e5 vej ned og under pres, men produktions\u00f8konomien og skalaen g\u00f8r det den skal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prisfasts\u00e6ttelsen er som den er<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Tesla er for mig at se indiskutabelt for h\u00f8jt prissat p\u00e5 det, som man kan se og regne p\u00e5. De som regner den hjem og mere til, str\u00e6kker og tr\u00e6kker i udviklingen, fordi de er positive. Min konklusion er: Prisfasts\u00e6ttelse betyder mindre og driver ikke aktien.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Elon Musk kan det som ingen andre kan. Han er kontroversiel p\u00e5 alle m\u00e5der. Han er en ener. En enfant terrible, som med sine udsagn og holdninger skiller vandene.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bliver Musk og Tesla hvirvlet ind Donald Trump?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Tror jeg hans engagement forts\u00e6tter? Det er der gode muligheder for. Bliver han politisk hvirvlet ind i Donald Trump? Jeg ved det ikke. Kan det v\u00e6re en h\u00e6msko? Sagtens. Er det b\u00f8rsnoterede Tesla meget mere end blot og f\u00f8rst og fremmest Elon Musk? Godt sp\u00f8rgsm\u00e5l. Jeg tror det.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Efter jeg s\u00e5 regnskabet og de udfordringer, som konkurrenterne, eksklusive kineserne, som er \u201df\u00f8dt elektriske\u201d har, er jeg blevet overbevist om potentialet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prisfasts\u00e6ttelse betyder mindre<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Det handler ikke om pris(fasts\u00e6ttelse)en. Det handler om at kunne. At v\u00e6re foran og ikke mindst om, at investorerne ikke bekymrer sig om prisen. De k\u00f8ber som bekendt ikke en vare og en aktie i dag fordi den er billig, men fordi de tror den stiger i morgen. Omvendt s\u00e6lger de heller ikke en aktie fordi den er dyr, men hvis de frygter, den falder i morgen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tro flytter bjerge og aktiekurser<\/a><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeg ved ikke i hvilket omfang de selvk\u00f8rende biler kommer; eller hvorn\u00e5r. Eller hvor meget Tesla kan g\u00f8re indenfor energilagring, ude i rummet eller andre ting. Tro kan flytte bjerge og ogs\u00e5 aktiekurser.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tesla Die-hard<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeg er ikke en \u201dTesla-die-hard\u201d, men jeg tror p\u00e5 projektet, og ser bort fra prisfasts\u00e6ttelsen. Tesla har en \u00f8konomi, som hvis de kan k\u00f8re videre i den nuv\u00e6rende g\u00e6nge og med planerne selv kan bestemme i et vist omfang. De skal ikke sp\u00f8rge aktiemarkedet om flere penge. De er selvfinansierede, og det er meget vigtigt. Skulle det alligevel blive n\u00f8dvendigt at tr\u00e6kke p\u00e5 \u201daktiekreditten\u201d, vil det ogs\u00e5 v\u00e6re muligt uden, at det bliver udvandende p\u00e5 grund af den h\u00f8je aktiekurs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ovenst\u00e5ende er ikke en anbefaling til at k\u00f8be eller s\u00e6lge v\u00e6rdipapirer<\/em>.Dette blogindl\u00e6g er udarbejdet til informationsform\u00e5l. Blogindl\u00e6gget udg\u00f8r s\u00e5ledes ikke investeringsm\u00e6ssig eller anden r\u00e5dgivning. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast. Finansielle instrumenter kan b\u00e5de stige og falde i v\u00e6rdi. Der er en risiko for, at du ikke f\u00e5r de investerede penge tilbage.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I sidste uge afleverede Tesla sit 3. kvartalsregnskab. Investorerne var naturligt nok forbeholdne forud. Det skyldes i et vist omfang de vilk\u00e5r, som g\u00e6lder. Ogs\u00e5 for Tesla. Forbrugerne er lidt tilbageholdne med at k\u00f8be nye biler. De t\u00e6nker p\u00e5 overgangen fra diesel\/benzin til el. P\u00e5 udviklingen i brugtpriserne. Batteriernes levetid, holdbarhed, v\u00e6gt, innovation, \u201drange\u201d og meget andet og m\u00e5ske ogs\u00e5 lidt p\u00e5 modstanden mod elbiler.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40015,"featured_media":62949,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1291],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-62944","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/10\/1608_TESLA_1200x430_V1-150x54.png","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/10\/1608_TESLA_1200x430_V1-150x54.png 150w, 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