{"id":63434,"date":"2024-11-28T12:07:27","date_gmt":"2024-11-28T11:07:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/?p=63434"},"modified":"2026-03-11T15:42:22","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T14:42:22","slug":"er-din-globale-aktieportefoelje-egentlig-saa-global","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/er-din-globale-aktieportefoelje-egentlig-saa-global\/","title":{"rendered":"Er din globale aktieportef\u00f8lje egentlig s\u00e5 global?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em>Globale investorer t\u00e6nker i hele verden, men n\u00e5r det kommer til markedsv\u00e6rdi af de b\u00f8rsst\u00f8rrelser, der indg\u00e5r i en s\u00e5dan portef\u00f8lje, er den m\u00e5ske nok v\u00e6rdim\u00e6ssigt global, men den er geografisk meget koncentreret. N\u00e5r investorerne i 2024 siger, at de har haft et godt afkast, har de formentlig enten haft mange USA-<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/aktier\/kurser\">aktier<\/a> og\/eller v\u00e6ret koncentreret i de store amerikanske teknologiselskaber. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"de-finansielle-realiteter-en-mulighed-eller-trussel\"><strong>De finansielle realiteter<\/strong>: En mulighed eller trussel?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>USA fylder en stor del af en global portef\u00f8lje. Det er resultatet af, at de amerikanske selskaber lige nu er i en anden liga end nogle andre markeder i verden. N\u00e5r man ser de finansielle realiteter, kan man ikke undg\u00e5 at sp\u00e6rre \u00f8jnene op og t\u00e6nke: Er det en trussel eller risiko at et land, og endda i overvejende grad en sektor og nogle f\u00e5 selskaber, st\u00e5r for og bestemmer en s\u00e5 stor del af dit afkast?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-background\" style=\"background-color:#d7d7d2\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<p><strong>I en global portef\u00f8lje af aktier i de industrialiserede lande indg\u00e5r aktuelt:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>73,79 % fra USA<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>P\u00e5 de n\u00e6ste pladser kommer Eurozonen med 7,48 %, Japan 5,55 %; Europa ekskl. eurozonen 4,01 % og UK 3,26 %<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>De st\u00f8rste ti beholdninger, rangereret efter v\u00e6gt\/hvor meget de fylder i portef\u00f8ljen, er alle amerikanske<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>De tre st\u00f8rste selskaber i en global portef\u00f8lje er Nvidia, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/aktier\/kurser\/apple-aapl-xnas\">Apple<\/a> og <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/aktier\/kurser\/microsoft-msft-xnas\">Microsoft<\/a>, og de fylder lige nu t\u00e6t p\u00e5 15 % i en global portef\u00f8lje. Tre selskaber. 15 %. Det er vilde tal.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Kilde: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/etf\/liste\/i-shares-msci-world-screened-snaw-xeta\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/etf\/liste\/i-shares-msci-world-screened-snaw-xeta\">Data er hentet fra MSCI World <\/a> pr. 28. november 2024.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"svaret-er-bade-ja-og-nej\"><strong>Svaret er b\u00e5de ja og nej<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Sp\u00f8rgsm\u00e5let er reelt. Mit svar vil nogenlunde v\u00e6re: Jeg forst\u00e5r sp\u00f8rgsm\u00e5let, men er p\u00e5 marginalen ikke s\u00e5 bekymret. Investorkoncentrationen afspejler tiden og udviklingen<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Jeg ved, at det for nogen vil v\u00e6re kontroversielt. At investere passivt i en indeksudvikling, svarer i et vist omfang til at v\u00e6re \u201dmomentum\u201d-investor; at koncentrere sine penge om USA og (ude)lukke \u00f8jnene for de muligheder, der findes og naturligt er udenfor netop USA. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Aktuelt ser vi f\u00f8lgende i en global aktieportef\u00f8lje:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Apple er manges foretrukne telefon, s\u00e5 derfor\u2026<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Der er en grund til, at Nvidia s\u00e5 h\u00f8jt, og det skyldes markedsdominans inden for AI chips.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Microsoft er til stede p\u00e5 samtlige \u201dkontorer\u201d i et omfang som ikke kun er stort, men altdominerende. Forts\u00e6tter det? Jeg ved det ikke, men hvis ikke, s\u00e5 sker bev\u00e6gelsen fra meget stor til st\u00f8rre, til mindre formentlig over tid.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"544\" height=\"481\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/11\/image-16.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-63436\" style=\"width:388px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/11\/image-16.png 544w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/11\/image-16-150x133.png 150w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/11\/image-16-500x442.png 500w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/11\/image-16-370x327.png 370w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/11\/image-16-270x239.png 270w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 544px) 100vw, 544px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Billede: De ti st\u00f8rste beholdninger i en global <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/etf\">ETF<\/a>. Kilde: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/etf\/liste\/i-shares-msci-world-screened-snaw-xeta\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/etf\/liste\/i-shares-msci-world-screened-snaw-xeta\">iShares MSCI World<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Koncentrationen er et udtryk for investorernes lyst til at k\u00f8be stort ind i USA. Man kan k\u00e6mpe imod og investere udenfor benchmark med de muligheder og udfordringer, som det tilbyder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"hvad-er-prisen-for-at-fa-usa-markedsadgang\"><strong>Hvad er prisen for at f\u00e5 USA markedsadgang?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Investorerne tager bestik af den forventede udvikling. Valget af Donald Trump handler ikke kun om hans administration, &#8220;America first&#8221;, udn\u00e6vnelsen af loyalister som ministre, Elon Musk etc. Den handler basalt set om forskellen i \u00f8konomiske modeller og <strong>ikke mindst i prisen for at f\u00e5 adgang til det amerikanske marked og de amerikanske forbrugere<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"is-style-squared wp-block-button is-style-circular\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/aktier\/inspiration\">Find inspiration til aktier<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"alle-stormer-til-usa\"><strong>Alle stormer til USA<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Tendensen var allerede godt i gang, men den er blevet ekstremt accelereret, siden Donald Trump vandt valget den 5\/11. Trenden mod USA-aktiver er meget st\u00e6rk og intakt. Udenlandske investorer h\u00e5ber, at de k\u00f8ber ind i et &#8220;goldilock-scenarie&#8221;, hvor de f\u00e5r medvind p\u00e5 samtlige aktivklasser: En stigende USD, faldende amerikanske markedsrenter og stigende amerikanske aktier. Det lyder n\u00e6sten for godt til at v\u00e6re sandt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-background\" style=\"background-color:#d7d7d2\"><strong>Hvad er nu..? \ud83d\udca1  <\/strong>Et goldilock-scenarie, eller et Guldlok-scenarie, er der, hvor \u00f8konomien er &#8220;lige tilpas&#8221;. Det betyder, at inflationen ikke kammer over, og at den heller ikke er der, hvor vi ser ind i en recession. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"europa-bliver-valgt-fra-men-hvad-med-forventet-rentedyk\"><strong>Europa bliver valgt fra, men hvad med forventet rentedyk?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>USA bliver valgt til, mens alt andet \u2013 i store tal \u2013 v\u00e6lges fra. Det g\u00e6lder i meget stor grad med Europa, hvor investorernes argumenter for at v\u00e6lge fra n\u00e6rmest st\u00e5r i k\u00f8:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Europas st\u00f8rste \u00f8konomi, Tyskland, er politisk og \u00f8konomisk handlingslammet og i krise.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Indtjeningsv\u00e6ksten i selskaberne er skuffende.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Europa st\u00e5r foran store udfordringer og vigtige prioriteringer. V\u00e6ksten er lav, og udgifterne til forsvaret skal op. Ukraine er = f\u00f8rst og fremmest Europa.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Europa mangler en prov\u00e6kst dagsorden. Det er det, som investorerne fors\u00f8ger at fort\u00e6lle<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"2025-usd-paritet-og-eur-renter-der-styrtdykker\"><strong>2025: USD-paritet og EUR-renter, der styrtdykker?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Investorerne er ved at indstille sig p\u00e5, at ECB kan komme til at s\u00e6nke renterne langt mere end Federal Reserve. Jeg har bl.a. set estimater p\u00e5 en indskudsbevisrente p\u00e5 ned til 1 % i starten af 2026 mod de nuv\u00e6rende 3,25 %, og at USD\/EUR vil n\u00e5 pariteten, svarende til 7,45 i USD\/DKK. Det er fremskrivninger og forventninger fra analytikere, som vil f\u00e5 2025 til at blive et meget sp\u00e6ndende \u00e5r. I givet fald vil det g\u00f8re \u201dmarkedsaktiver\u201d b\u00e5de i USA og Europa langt mere afkastinteressante end kontante placeringer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Ovenst\u00e5ende er ikke en anbefaling til at k\u00f8be eller s\u00e6lge v\u00e6rdipapirer<\/em>.<em>Dette blogindl\u00e6g er udarbejdet til informationsform\u00e5l. Blogindl\u00e6gget udg\u00f8r s\u00e5ledes ikke investeringsm\u00e6ssig eller anden r\u00e5dgivning. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast. Finansielle instrumenter kan b\u00e5de stige og falde i v\u00e6rdi. Der er en risiko for, at du ikke f\u00e5r de investerede penge tilbage.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Hvor global er en global aktieportef\u00f8lje egentlig lige nu? Investerings\u00f8konom Per Hansen ser n\u00e6rmere p\u00e5, hvordan v\u00e6gtningen ser ud i et global indeks, og hvad det kan betyde for Europa, Danmark og aktierne i 2025.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40015,"featured_media":63439,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1292],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-63434","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tips-strategi"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/11\/IMG_0646_1200x430-1-150x54.png","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/11\/IMG_0646_1200x430-1-150x54.png 150w, 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