{"id":63836,"date":"2024-12-18T11:57:10","date_gmt":"2024-12-18T10:57:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/?p=63836"},"modified":"2024-12-18T12:36:23","modified_gmt":"2024-12-18T11:36:23","slug":"fem-paastande-til-per-hansen-hvordan-bliver-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/fem-paastande-til-per-hansen-hvordan-bliver-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Fem p\u00e5stande om 2025: Er der udsigt til aktiefest?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Vi har sat vores garvede investerings\u00f8konom, Per Hansen, st\u00e6vne. Snart skifter vi kalender\u00e5r, derfor har vi fremsat fem p\u00e5stande, som han har f\u00e5et mulighed for at besvare i denne blog. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I sidste uge skrev Per Hansen om 19 teser for 2025<\/a>. Hvert enkel tese er blevet sirligt beskrevet og kynisk vurderet, men vi vil gerne udfordre ham yderligere. Derfor har vi bedt ham give sit besyv p\u00e5 fem nye p\u00e5stande om n\u00e6ste \u00e5rs aktiemarked, som handler om alt fra Donald Trump til det danske C25<\/a>-Indeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. Gr\u00f8n energi overstiger fossile br\u00e6ndsler m\u00e5lt p\u00e5 afkast n\u00e6ste \u00e5r.<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Det kan n\u00e6ppe komme bag p\u00e5 s\u00e6rlig mange, at fremtiden skal v\u00e6re gr\u00f8nnere. Men selvom verden bliver mere gr\u00f8n, s\u00e5 er det alts\u00e5 ikke n\u00f8dvendigvis ensbetydende med, at de gr\u00f8nne og mere b\u00e6redygtige investeringer vil sikre dig et h\u00f8jeste afkast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Jeg h\u00e5ber, at det er muligt. Men det som er mest sandsynligt, det er, at vi f\u00e5r billigere funding og det g\u00e6lder b\u00e5de sort- og gr\u00f8nenergi. Derfor er det nok ogs\u00e5 mindre sandsynligt, at det bliver i 2025, at gr\u00f8n energi vinder over de fossile br\u00e6ndsler, siger Per Hansen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Men, hvordan kan det egentligt v\u00e6re, n\u00e5r s\u00e5 mange snakker gr\u00f8n omstilling? Sp\u00f8rger man Per Hansen, s\u00e5 er der flere grunde til det. Blandt andet skal der endnu mere gang i den gr\u00f8nne energi, for lige nu er det sv\u00e6rt at f\u00f8lge med. Og s\u00e5 er der USA, der har valgt en ny pr\u00e6sident, der ikke ligefrem er begejstret for gr\u00f8n energi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

– USA er en k\u00e6mpe \u00f8konomi. Men i USA er det ikke den gr\u00f8nne energi, som vinder frem, det er naturgas, det er olie, og s\u00e5 det er atomkraft. Udsigter til mere gr\u00f8n energi er heller ikke ligefrem gode, for Donald Trump skal ikke have noget andet, end det han har i dag. Og han skal slet ikke have vind, uddyber Per Hansen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. Udsigten til faldende renter giver comeback til de cykliske aktier<\/a>.<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

I sidste uge satte ECB renten ned, s\u00e5 den i dag er p\u00e5 3 %. Det er dog langt fra nok, hvis man sp\u00f8rger Per Hansen, den skal endnu l\u00e6ngere ned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Jeg tror, at ECBs indl\u00e5nsrente bliver halveret i l\u00f8bet af de n\u00e6ste 12 m\u00e5neder. Samtidigt er markedsrenterne allerede faldet meget i Europa og Kina. I Japan er de stadig lave, og m\u00e5ske er de ogs\u00e5 p\u00e5 vej ned i USA, siger Per Hansen og forts\u00e6tter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Jeg er overbevist om, at renterne i Europa kommer langt ned. Fordi det nu engang er den medicin, som centralbanken, ECB kan dosere, n\u00e5r de reformer som er n\u00f8dvendige, ikke sker. Lavere renter er smertelindring til en kroniker.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Men betyder de lavere renter s\u00e5 ogs\u00e5, at de cykliske aktier for et comeback? Den vurdering kan v\u00e6re sv\u00e6r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Muligheden for et cyklisk comeback er til stede. B\u00e5de i relation til forventningerne om bedre v\u00e6kst i l\u00f8bet af 2025 og ind i 2026, men ogs\u00e5 fordi lavere renter g\u00f8r aktier mere attraktive, siger Per Hansen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. Genindf\u00f8rslen af Donald Trumps America First-politik g\u00f8r amerikanske aktier til de mest attraktive i 2025.<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Det kan n\u00e6sten ikke v\u00e6re g\u00e5et nogens n\u00e6se forbi, at Donald Trump fra januar overtager pr\u00e6sidentposten i USA, efter hans valgsejr i november. Noget af det gennemg\u00e5ende i Donald Trumps politik, det er hans America First-politik, som kort fortalt handler om nationalisme. Det betyder blandt andet, at det skal v\u00e6re mere attraktivt at producere inden for landets egne gr\u00e6nse. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sp\u00f8rgsm\u00e5let er derfor, om den politik betyder, at de amerikanske aktier bliver de mest attraktive. Eller sagt med andre ord, kommer de til at give det h\u00f8jeste afkast? If\u00f8lge Per Hansen kunne den amerikanske-optur meget vel forts\u00e6tte.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

– Den store effekt vi har set i 2024 for flere af de store amerikanske selskaber, blev kun forst\u00e6rket efter valget. Og s\u00e5 har vi ogs\u00e5 f\u00e5et en st\u00f8rre stigning i USD. Hvis amerikanske aktier stiger yderligere og USD f\u00f8lger med. S\u00e5 er det ikke ut\u00e6nkeligt, at der kan komme en 10 % stigning for en dansk\/global investor i lokal valuta, siger Per Hansen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Der er dog \u00e9n ting, som ikke har \u00e6ndret sig, og det er, hvorfor investorerne k\u00f8ber en aktien. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Her og nu k\u00f8ber investorerne kun USA, og jeg kan v\u00e6re i tvivl om, om det vil \u00e6ndre sig. Investorerne k\u00f8ber som bekendt ikke en aktie, fordi den er billig, og de s\u00e6lger ikke en aktie, fordi den er dyr. De k\u00f8ber og s\u00e6lger p\u00e5 momentum, siger Per Hansen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4. S&P 500 n\u00e5r et nyt all-time high med 10 %. <\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Ingen ved, hvordan aktiemarkedet kommer til at udvikle sig, s\u00e5 det kan vi kun gisne om. Men kaster vi blikket p\u00e5 verdensindekset, s\u00e5 tegner der sig en tydelig tendens. Det g\u00e5r op og ned. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Mange siger, at efter toppen, s\u00e5 kommer bunden. Det g\u00f8r jeg ikke. Tv\u00e6rtimod siger jeg, at der altid kommer kommer en ny top, siger Per Hansen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 har i \u00e5ret givet et afkast p\u00e5 29 %, og indekset har da ogs\u00e5 n\u00e5et sit all-time high i 2024. Fastholdes det nuv\u00e6rende niveau, vil det betyde, at der over de seneste fem \u00e5r har v\u00e6ret et afkast p\u00e5 110 %. Sp\u00f8rgsm\u00e5let er derfor, om 2025 er \u00e5ret, hvor toppen bliver erstattet af en ny.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Om ikke alle, s\u00e5 vil flertallet nok sige, at det sker. Det er konsensus, og investorerne er investeret i det og derefter. Jeg siger ikke, at det ikke sker, men det handler dybset om, om der er tilstr\u00e6kkelig momentum og investeringspenge, som kan komme i markedet og s\u00f8ge mod USA, siger Per Hansen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

5. Det danske C25-indeks outperformer det tyske DAX40-indeks.<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

2024 har v\u00e6ret et begivenhedsrigt \u00e5r p\u00e5 aktiemarkedet. Det danske C25-indeks har ikke klaret sig, som mange m\u00e5ske havde h\u00e5bet. Noget som Per Hansen skrev om tidligere p\u00e5 \u00e5ret.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Selvom det i dansk kontekst har v\u00e6ret en anelse skuffende, s\u00e5 er det helt anderledes, hvis vi ser p\u00e5 vores naboer i Tyskland. Her er \u00f8konomien t\u00e6t p\u00e5 at v\u00e6re i kn\u00e6, hvor det i s\u00e6rdeleshed er bilindustrien, der er blevet h\u00e5rdt ramt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Samtidig har et politisk kaos endt ud med, at regeringen nu er blevet v\u00e6ltet. Betyder det s\u00e5, at det danske C25-indeks vil outperforme det tyske DAX40 i 2025?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Tysk industri er i krise. Danmark har vist sig at v\u00e6re gode til at tilpasse sig, s\u00e5 jeg tror p\u00e5 et dansk comeback n\u00e6ste \u00e5r, siger Per Hansen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ovenst\u00e5ende er ikke en anbefaling til at k\u00f8be eller s\u00e6lge v\u00e6rdipapirer<\/em>.Dette blogindl\u00e6g er udarbejdet til informationsform\u00e5l. Blogindl\u00e6gget udg\u00f8r s\u00e5ledes ikke investeringsm\u00e6ssig eller anden r\u00e5dgivning. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast. Finansielle instrumenter kan b\u00e5de stige og falde i v\u00e6rdi. Der er en risiko for, at du ikke f\u00e5r de investerede penge tilbage.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Vi har givet Per Hansen fem p\u00e5stande, der alle handler om, hvordan 2025 udvikler sig. I denne blog kan du blandt andet l\u00e6se Pers bud p\u00e5, om det danske C25-indeks outperformer det tyske DAX40-indeks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40017,"featured_media":62516,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1291],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-63836","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/10\/IMG_0076_Per_Hansen_1200x430-150x54.jpg","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/10\/IMG_0076_Per_Hansen_1200x430-150x54.jpg 150w, 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