{"id":64670,"date":"2025-01-17T11:28:10","date_gmt":"2025-01-17T10:28:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/?p=64670"},"modified":"2026-03-11T15:42:52","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T14:42:52","slug":"per-hansen-katastrofelampen-blinker-for-danske-aktier","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/per-hansen-katastrofelampen-blinker-for-danske-aktier\/","title":{"rendered":"Per Hansen: Katastrofelampen blinker for danske aktier"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Hvis du t\u00e6nker, at de seneste seks m\u00e5neder har v\u00e6ret h\u00e5rde ved danske aktier<\/a>, s\u00e5 har du helt ret. B\u00e5de absolut og relativt.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vi har h\u00f8rt meget om de danske aktieudfordringer det seneste halv\u00e5r. Det har i h\u00f8j grad v\u00e6ret \u00d8rsted og Vestas, der har haft det sv\u00e6rt. Men ogs\u00e5 mange andre danske selskaber som GN Store Nord<\/a> og Carlsberg<\/a> er sendt dramatisk ned, og der er derfor blevet solgt ud af portef\u00f8ljerne med gr\u00f8nth\u00f8stermetoden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Og ser vi p\u00e5 udviklingen de seneste seks m\u00e5neder mellem USA Nasdaq<\/a> 100, tyske DAX<\/a> og danske C25<\/a>, s\u00e5 er der flere ting, som springer i \u00f8jnene.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. Den tyske \u00f8konomi er meget udfordret, men DAX-indekset har v\u00e6ret det indeks, som har givet det bedste afkast.
    <\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Vi h\u00f8rer meget om den tyske bilindustri, men Tyskland og DAX er mere end blot biler.
    <\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. Den stigende USD har en god betydning for Tyskland, men det g\u00e6lder ogs\u00e5 for Danmark.
    <\/li>\n\n\n\n
  4. Siden valget i USA har der v\u00e6ret en amerikansk Trump-effekt ikke mindst i techaktierne, men den er k\u00f8let lidt af igen.
    <\/li>\n\n\n\n
  5. Danmark har derimod v\u00e6ret en meget stor skuffelse. Forskellen mellem Danmark og Tyskland er ikke kun de lidt mere end 10%, som det danske indeks er faldet, men ogs\u00e5 de lidt mere end 11% som de tyske aktier er steget.
    <\/li>\n\n\n\n
  6. Det er en relativ forskel p\u00e5 mere end 20%. Det er ikke kun us\u00e6dvanligt, men meget us\u00e6dvanligt.
    <\/li>\n\n\n\n
  7. Danmarks st\u00f8rste samhandelspartnere er USA og Tyskland, som st\u00e5r for henholdsvis 18% og 11% af eksporten. Det s\u00e6tter den danske underperformance i yderligere negativ fokus.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Kommende nedtur eller k\u00f8bsmulighed?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Usikkerheden med hensyn til USA, Donald Trump og eventuelle Gr\u00f8nlandssanktioner er stor. Det samme kan man sige om aktiekursudviklingen og forskellen i afkast. Enten st\u00e5r Danmark overfor meget store udfordringer, eller ogs\u00e5 er den nuv\u00e6rende nedtur langsigtet en rigtig god k\u00f8bsmulighed. B\u00e5de absolut og relativt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    Figur 1: Kursudvikling, OMX C25, DAX, Nasdaq 100. Kilde: Nordnet (kl. 06:30 d.17\/1\/2024) <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Embedsm\u00e6nd forbereder told<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Donald Trump har udtalt, at han s\u00e6tter sine embedsm\u00e6nd til at forberede indf\u00f8relse af told i starten af n\u00e6ste uge. Senest p\u00e5 samme tid som han tirsdag bliver indsat som den 47. amerikanske pr\u00e6sident.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    For investorerne er det ikke ensbetydende med, at tolden ender med at blive indf\u00f8rt. Samtidigt kender vi hverken toldsatser eller den n\u00f8jagtige tidslinje endnu. \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Kulminerer usikkerheden nu?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Investorerne hader usikkerheder. Og med til at g\u00f8re den politiske usikkerhed st\u00f8rre er det pres, som USA politisk l\u00e6gger \u00f8konomisk p\u00e5 Danmark.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    I forsvarstermiologi bliver Danmark og danske selskaber ramt af \u201dfriendly fire\u201d. Cocktaileffekten af fjendtligheder, presset og uberegneligheden g\u00f8r en negativ forskel. Det er ikke givet, men det kan ikke udelukkes, at usikkerheden topper i denne eller starten af n\u00e6ste uge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Ovenst\u00e5ende er ikke en anbefaling til at k\u00f8be eller s\u00e6lge v\u00e6rdipapirer<\/em>.Dette blogindl\u00e6g er udarbejdet til informationsform\u00e5l. Blogindl\u00e6gget udg\u00f8r s\u00e5ledes ikke investeringsm\u00e6ssig eller anden r\u00e5dgivning. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast. Finansielle instrumenter kan b\u00e5de stige og falde i v\u00e6rdi. Der er en risiko for, at du ikke f\u00e5r de investerede penge tilbage.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Det har v\u00e6ret en h\u00e5rd tid for danske aktier det sidste halv\u00e5r. Flere store danske selskaber har haft det sv\u00e6rt, og det har sendt aktiekurserne ned. Per Hansen g\u00f8r dig klogere p\u00e5, hvad der er sket.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40015,"featured_media":64672,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1291],"tags":[1612],"class_list":["post-64670","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-persunivers"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/01\/PH-No-150x54.png","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/01\/PH-No-150x54.png 150w, 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