{"id":65075,"date":"2025-02-17T15:29:40","date_gmt":"2025-02-17T14:29:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/?p=65075"},"modified":"2026-03-11T15:21:21","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T14:21:21","slug":"hvilke-muligheder-giver-forsvarsudgifter-paa-5-pct-af-bnp-for-investorerne","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/hvilke-muligheder-giver-forsvarsudgifter-paa-5-pct-af-bnp-for-investorerne\/","title":{"rendered":"Hvilke muligheder giver forsvarsudgifter p\u00e5 5 pct. af BNP for investorerne?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Trump har et klart m\u00e5l: NATO-landenes forsvarsbudgetter skal \u00f8ges til 5 pct. af BNP. I dag er tallet kun 1,7 pct., hvis man ser p\u00e5 NATO-landene eksklusive USA. Der skal alts\u00e5 mange store milliardinvesteringer til, f\u00f8r den nye amerikanske pr\u00e6sident er tilfreds. I denne artikel kigger \u00f8konom i Maj Invest Peter Emil Bundgaard Mondrup n\u00e6rmere p\u00e5, hvad det kan give af muligheder for investorerne.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-coblocks-author\" style=\"font-size:16px\"><figure class=\"wp-block-coblocks-author__avatar\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-block-coblocks-author__avatar-img\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/02\/Peter-Emil-Bundgaard-Mondrup.png\" alt=\"Om Peter Emil Bundgaard Mondrup\" \/><\/figure><div class=\"wp-block-coblocks-author__content\"><span class=\"wp-block-coblocks-author__name\">Om Peter Emil Bundgaard Mondrup<\/span><p class=\"wp-block-coblocks-author__biography\">Peter Emil Bundgaard Mondrup er \u00f8konom i Maj Invest.<br \/><br \/>Peter fokuserer p\u00e5 den globale makro\u00f8konomi og samspillet med finansmarkederne. Koblingen mellem \u00f8konomien og finansmarkederne er ikke kun sp\u00e6ndende, men ogs\u00e5 vigtig for at skabe gode langsigtede afkast.<\/p><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Situationen kort fortalt:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Trump vil h\u00e6ve NATO\u2019s forsvarsudgifter fra 2 pct. til 5 pct. af BNP.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Det betyder ekstra investeringer i forsvarssektoren p\u00e5 1.120 mia. dollar \u00e5rligt.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>St\u00f8rre investeringer betyder h\u00f8jere indtjeningsv\u00e6kst i forsvarsindustrien.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Indtjeningsv\u00e6kst er afg\u00f8rende for at sikre et godt langsigtet afkast.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Og der er ingen tvivl om, at investeringerne er n\u00f8dvendige. NATO\u2019s forsvar halter: Siden 1992 er antallet af tilg\u00e6ngelige kampvogne i Europa faldet med 77 pct., antallet af kampfly med 57 pct. og antallet af kampskibe med 39 pct. Samtidig er antallet af v\u00e6bnede konflikter globalt n\u00e6sten fordoblet, og flere er rykket langt t\u00e6ttere p\u00e5 NATO-landene. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"hvor-mange-penge-drejer-det-sig-om\">Hvor mange penge drejer det sig om?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>I dag bruger NATO-landene 1.280 mia. dollar \u00e5rligt p\u00e5 forsvarsudgifter. Hvis m\u00e5let om, at forsvarsudgifterne skal n\u00e5 5 pct. af BNP, skal opfyldes, betyder det, at bel\u00f8bet skal stige til 2.400 mia. dollar. Der skal dermed bruges 1.120 mia. dollar ekstra hvert eneste \u00e5r p\u00e5 investeringer i forsvar. For at s\u00e6tte tallet i perspektiv svarer det til tre gange det danske BNP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Grafen nedenfor viser de \u00e5rlige investeringer i forsvar afh\u00e6ngigt af den aftalte andel af BNP, som omkostningerne skal udg\u00f8re. Hvis m\u00e5let om at n\u00e5 5 pct. af BNP bliver en realitet, og det skal indfases over fem \u00e5r, betyder det en \u00e5rlig v\u00e6kst i investeringerne p\u00e5 13,7 pct. \u2013 dertil skal l\u00e6gges den \u00e5rlige nominelle stigning i BNP. Og selv hvis man ikke ender helt oppe p\u00e5 5 pct. af BNP, er der lagt op til store stigninger \u2013 se figur 1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong>Figur 1. Forsvarsudgifter i NATO-lande i forskellige scenarier<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"409\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/02\/Figur-1.-Forsvarsudgifter-i-NATO-lande-1024x409.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-65076\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/02\/Figur-1.-Forsvarsudgifter-i-NATO-lande-1024x409.png 1024w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/02\/Figur-1.-Forsvarsudgifter-i-NATO-lande-620x248.png 620w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/02\/Figur-1.-Forsvarsudgifter-i-NATO-lande-150x60.png 150w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/02\/Figur-1.-Forsvarsudgifter-i-NATO-lande-768x307.png 768w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/02\/Figur-1.-Forsvarsudgifter-i-NATO-lande-1536x614.png 1536w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/02\/Figur-1.-Forsvarsudgifter-i-NATO-lande-2048x818.png 2048w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/02\/Figur-1.-Forsvarsudgifter-i-NATO-lande-500x200.png 500w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/02\/Figur-1.-Forsvarsudgifter-i-NATO-lande-800x320.png 800w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/02\/Figur-1.-Forsvarsudgifter-i-NATO-lande-1280x512.png 1280w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/02\/Figur-1.-Forsvarsudgifter-i-NATO-lande-1920x767.png 1920w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/02\/Figur-1.-Forsvarsudgifter-i-NATO-lande-370x148.png 370w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/02\/Figur-1.-Forsvarsudgifter-i-NATO-lande-270x108.png 270w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/02\/Figur-1.-Forsvarsudgifter-i-NATO-lande-570x228.png 570w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/02\/Figur-1.-Forsvarsudgifter-i-NATO-lande-740x296.png 740w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p><em><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/aktier\/kurser\/note-xsto\">Note<\/a>:<\/strong> Figuren viser forsvarsudgifterne ved givne niveauer af udgift pr. BNP. Udgifterne er summeret pr. land i NATO, s\u00e5ledes, at alle de lande, der ligger under f.eks. 3 pct., h\u00e6ver udgifterne til 3 pct., mens lande, der ligger over &#8211; f.eks. USA &#8211; fastholder sin udgift.<br><strong>Kilder:<\/strong> Sipri og Maj Invest.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"hvad-betyder-det-for-selskaber-i-forsvarsindustrien\">Hvad betyder det for selskaber i forsvarsindustrien?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00c5rlige investeringer p\u00e5 tre gange Danmarks BNP er ikke sm\u00e5ting. Heller ikke for forsvarsindustrien. Derfor vil det uden tvivl betyde h\u00f8jere aktivitet og indtjening for en r\u00e6kke virksomheder i sektoren.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Et tydeligt tegn p\u00e5 dette er den s\u00e5kaldte book-to-bill-ratio, der viser forholdet mellem st\u00f8rrelsen p\u00e5 virksomhedernes ordrebog og indev\u00e6rende \u00e5rs oms\u00e6tning. Hvis forholdet er st\u00f8rre end \u00e9n, betyder det som oftest, at eftersp\u00f8rgslen er stigende. Som tallene i nedenst\u00e5ende figur viser, er book-to-bill-ratioen for en r\u00e6kke af de st\u00f8rste selskaber inden for forsvarsindustrien p\u00e6nt over \u00e9n. Det er et klart tegn p\u00e5, at de stigende investeringer allerede nu er ved at materialisere sig i oms\u00e6tningsv\u00e6kst. I takt med at investeringerne stiger, vil denne tendens forst\u00e6rkes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong>\u00d8gede forsvarsudgifter giver h\u00f8jere aktivitet i forsvarsindustrien<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"409\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/02\/Figur-2.-Oegede-forsvarsudgifter-giver-hoejere-aktivitet-1024x409.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-65077\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/02\/Figur-2.-Oegede-forsvarsudgifter-giver-hoejere-aktivitet-1024x409.png 1024w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/02\/Figur-2.-Oegede-forsvarsudgifter-giver-hoejere-aktivitet-620x248.png 620w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/02\/Figur-2.-Oegede-forsvarsudgifter-giver-hoejere-aktivitet-150x60.png 150w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/02\/Figur-2.-Oegede-forsvarsudgifter-giver-hoejere-aktivitet-768x307.png 768w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/02\/Figur-2.-Oegede-forsvarsudgifter-giver-hoejere-aktivitet-1536x614.png 1536w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/02\/Figur-2.-Oegede-forsvarsudgifter-giver-hoejere-aktivitet-2048x818.png 2048w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/02\/Figur-2.-Oegede-forsvarsudgifter-giver-hoejere-aktivitet-500x200.png 500w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/02\/Figur-2.-Oegede-forsvarsudgifter-giver-hoejere-aktivitet-800x320.png 800w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/02\/Figur-2.-Oegede-forsvarsudgifter-giver-hoejere-aktivitet-1280x512.png 1280w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/02\/Figur-2.-Oegede-forsvarsudgifter-giver-hoejere-aktivitet-1920x767.png 1920w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/02\/Figur-2.-Oegede-forsvarsudgifter-giver-hoejere-aktivitet-370x148.png 370w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/02\/Figur-2.-Oegede-forsvarsudgifter-giver-hoejere-aktivitet-270x108.png 270w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/02\/Figur-2.-Oegede-forsvarsudgifter-giver-hoejere-aktivitet-570x228.png 570w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/02\/Figur-2.-Oegede-forsvarsudgifter-giver-hoejere-aktivitet-740x296.png 740w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p><em><strong>Note:<\/strong> Book-to-bill-ratio, viser forholdet mellem st\u00f8rrelsen p\u00e5 virksomhedernes ordrebog og indev\u00e6rende \u00e5rs oms\u00e6tning. Hvis forholdet er st\u00f8rre end \u00e9n, betyder det som oftest, at eftersp\u00f8rgslen er stigende.<br><strong>Kilde:<\/strong> Bloomberg.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Den h\u00f8jere oms\u00e6tning vil ogs\u00e5 betyde h\u00f8jere indtjening. Da indgangsbarriererne i forsvarssektoren er store, betyder det, at de eksisterende forsvarsselskaber har en solid konkurrenceposition. Kombineret med den operationelle gearing vil v\u00e6ksten i oms\u00e6tningen dermed ogs\u00e5 sl\u00e5 kraftigt igennem p\u00e5 v\u00e6ksten i selskabernes indtjening \u2013 og det er interessant for investorerne. P\u00e5 lang sigt viser historiske analyser nemlig, at det netop er v\u00e6kst i indtjeningen, som er den vigtigste parameter for at skabe et godt langsigtet aktieafkast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"hvad-skal-du-gore-som-investor\">Hvad skal du g\u00f8re som investor?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>De \u00f8gede investeringer fra NATO-landene kommer til at ramme en bred vifte af virksomheder. I stedet for at satse p\u00e5 enkelte <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/aktier\/kurser\">aktier<\/a>, vurderer vi i Maj Invest, at en fornuftig tilgang er at sammens\u00e6tte en bred portef\u00f8lje af forsvarsselskaber fra NATO-lande. Spreder man risikoen over flere selskaber, f\u00e5r man adgang til den underliggende v\u00e6kst i omr\u00e5det med lavere risiko end ved at investere i f\u00e5 enkeltaktier. Det kan f.eks. g\u00f8res gennem en <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/etf\">ETF<\/a> med fokus p\u00e5 forsvarsaktier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>De fleste og st\u00f8rste forsvarsselskaber finder man i USA, da 80 pct. af NATO-landenes investeringer i materiel g\u00e5r til amerikanske virksomheder if\u00f8lge Bloomberg. Der er dog ogs\u00e5 muligheder i Europa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong>Eksempler p\u00e5 forsvarsaktier<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"437\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/02\/Figur-3.-eksempler-paa-forsvarsaktier-1024x437.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-65078\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/02\/Figur-3.-eksempler-paa-forsvarsaktier-1024x437.png 1024w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/02\/Figur-3.-eksempler-paa-forsvarsaktier-620x265.png 620w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/02\/Figur-3.-eksempler-paa-forsvarsaktier-150x64.png 150w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/02\/Figur-3.-eksempler-paa-forsvarsaktier-768x328.png 768w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/02\/Figur-3.-eksempler-paa-forsvarsaktier-1536x656.png 1536w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/02\/Figur-3.-eksempler-paa-forsvarsaktier-2048x875.png 2048w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/02\/Figur-3.-eksempler-paa-forsvarsaktier-500x214.png 500w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/02\/Figur-3.-eksempler-paa-forsvarsaktier-800x342.png 800w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/02\/Figur-3.-eksempler-paa-forsvarsaktier-1280x547.png 1280w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/02\/Figur-3.-eksempler-paa-forsvarsaktier-1920x820.png 1920w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/02\/Figur-3.-eksempler-paa-forsvarsaktier-370x158.png 370w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/02\/Figur-3.-eksempler-paa-forsvarsaktier-270x115.png 270w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/02\/Figur-3.-eksempler-paa-forsvarsaktier-570x243.png 570w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/02\/Figur-3.-eksempler-paa-forsvarsaktier-740x316.png 740w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p><em><strong>Note:<\/strong> Ovenst\u00e5ende selskaber er ikke en anbefaling om k\u00f8b eller salg af v\u00e6rdipapirer, men blot taget med som eksempler. De viste selskaber indg\u00e5r i Maj Invest UCITS ETF Defence &amp; Cybersecurity.<br><strong>Kilde:<\/strong> Maj Invest.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"hvad-betyder-hojere-forsvarsudgifter-for-danske-familier\">Hvad betyder h\u00f8jere forsvarsudgifter for danske familier?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Der er endnu ingen konkrete planer for, hvordan eventuelt h\u00f8jere forsvarsudgifter skal finansieres. Hvis det ender med at blive betalt over skatten, har CEPOS givet sit bud p\u00e5 konsekvenserne for danske familier via en forh\u00f8jelse af bundskatten. Tallene viser, at hvis NATO-bidraget stiger til 5 pct. af BNP, vil det betyde, at en funktion\u00e6rfamilie skal betale 85.131 kr. ekstra i skat \u00e5rligt. Alts\u00e5 et markant indhug i en families \u00f8konomi. Og dette vil ikke kun v\u00e6re virkeligheden i Danmark, men i hele Europa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Det understreger, hvor store investeringer der er tale om. Netop derfor er omr\u00e5det ogs\u00e5 interessant at have med som byggeklods i ens samlede portef\u00f8lje.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"is-style-squared wp-block-button is-style-circular\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/investeringsforeninger\/liste\/maj-invest-ucits-etf-majdcs-xcse\">L\u00e6s om Maj Invests ETF med fokus p\u00e5 cybersikkerhed og forsvar<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Materialet er produceret af Maj Invest og skal anses som markedsf\u00f8ringsmateriale. Form\u00e5let med materialet er at give generel information om investeringsmulighederne og skal ikke betragtes som en investeringsanbefaling. Nordnet tager forbehold for n\u00f8jagtigheden af de angivne informationer, hvad enten de er leveret af Maj Invest selv eller hentet fra offentligt tilg\u00e6ngelige kilder.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Nordnet er ikke ansvarlig for dispositioner eller undladelser foretaget p\u00e5 baggrund af informationerne. Nordnet anbefaler sagkyndig og professionel vejledning ved investeringsbeslutninger. Nordnet modtager provision fraMaj Invest.<\/em><br><em>Se alle satser <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/dk\/info\/aop\"><em>her<\/em><\/a><em>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Historiske og tidligere afkast og\/eller kursudviklinger kan ikke anvendes som p\u00e5lidelig indikator for fremtidige afkast og\/eller kursudvikling. Tegning af andele b\u00f8r ske p\u00e5 baggrund af prospekt, vedt\u00e6gter og central investorinformation.Informationen findes p\u00e5 majinvest.dk<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Trump vil h\u00e6ve NATO-budgettet til 5% af BNP, hvilket betyder billioninvesteringer i forsvarsindustrien. L\u00e6s om mulighederne for v\u00e6kst og langsigtet afkast 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