{"id":66603,"date":"2025-04-03T11:48:10","date_gmt":"2025-04-03T09:48:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/?p=66603"},"modified":"2026-03-11T15:43:23","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T14:43:23","slug":"trumps-befrielsesdag-taet-paa-worst-case-for-investorerne","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/trumps-befrielsesdag-taet-paa-worst-case-for-investorerne\/","title":{"rendered":"Trumps befrielsesdag: T\u00e6t p\u00e5 worst case for investorerne"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>I g\u00e5r blev det officielt, at USA indf\u00f8rer &#8220;Reciprocaltariffs&#8221;<\/strong>. <strong>If\u00f8lge Donald Trump er det den \u201dvenlige\u201d udgave med groft sagt halvdelen af den told, som udenlandske lande ligger p\u00e5 USA.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Befrielsesdagen har sat sine spor p\u00e5 aktiemarkedet. I g\u00e5r blev aktierne sendt ned, efter at Donald Trump pr\u00e6senterede sine toldplaner. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-background\" style=\"background-color:#ebebe8\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"her-nogle-af-nedslagene-fra-befrielsesdagen\">Her nogle af nedslagene fra befrielsesdagen:<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>USA vil indf\u00f8re en basistold p\u00e5 10 %.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>En r\u00e6kke lande vil f\u00e5 en meget h\u00f8jere told. Det drejer sig blandt andet om Kina og Europa.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>For Europa er toldsatsen p\u00e5 20 %. Det g\u00e6lder for varer produceret i Europa og sendt til USA. For varer produceret uden for Europa og eksporteret til USA, bliver toldsatsen formentlig svarende til satsen for det land, hvor varen er produceret.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Tolden tr\u00e6der i kraft den 9. april. Og der vil formentlig ske en del de kommende dage.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Europa vil h\u00f8jest sandsynligt fors\u00f8ge at forhandle en lavere sats. Eller ogs\u00e5 vil de m\u00e5ske g\u00e5 med til en lavere sats for amerikanske varer.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Europa vil formentlig forberede et modsvar for tjenesteydelser, hvilket kan v\u00e6re \u00e5rsagen til, at de amerikanske MAG 7-<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/aktier\/kurser\">aktier<\/a> faldt i eftermarkedet.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/aktier\/kurser\/tesla-tsla-xnas\">Tesla<\/a> var den, som bev\u00e6gede sig mest. Det skyldes dog en r\u00e6kke forhold. Herunder nettoeffekten af skuffende leveringstal, den overraskende stigning efter forlydender om, at Elon Musk \u201dforlader\u201d politik og udsigten til, at den politiske forbruger i Europa og Kina vil t\u00f8ve med at k\u00f8be en Tesla.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Eli Lilly faldt med godt 1 % i eftermarkedet. Eli Lilly producerer rigtig meget i Irland p\u00e5 grund af den lave selskabsskat. Det vil nok \u00e6ndre sig.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"markedsreaktioner\"><strong>Markedsreaktioner<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>USD falder med ca. 1 %. Det skyldes formentlig, at ingen ved, hvad toldplanerne reelt kommer til at betyde, eller hvad det ender med. Normalt tiltr\u00e6kker USD investorer, n\u00e5r tiden er pr\u00e6get af usikkerhed, men lige nu lurer frygten m\u00e5ske for, at Trump-administrationen vil s\u00e6nke USD m\u00e6rkbart over tid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Markedsrenterne falder ogs\u00e5. P\u00e5 den ene side er det naturligt, fordi investorerne vil s\u00e6lge ud af aktier og bev\u00e6ge sig mod obligationer, som presser markedsrenten ned. Samtidig vil toldsatser presse inflationen op, og det vil v\u00e6re umuligt for Federal Reserve at s\u00e6nke renten de kommende m\u00e5neder, medmindre den n\u00e6ste uge \u2013 frem til den 9. april \u2013 bringer \u201dforhandlingsresultater\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"fed-og-europa\"><strong>FED og Europa<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Investorerne kan her og nu skyde en hvid pind efter renteneds\u00e6ttelser fra FED. Med udsigt til stigende priser er det ikke realistisk, at den amerikanske centralbank, Federal Reserve, har mulighed for p\u00e5 kort sigt at g\u00f8re noget. Samtidig vil stigende priser udhule amerikanernes k\u00f8bekraft. Risikoen for en amerikansk recession er alts\u00e5 steget.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Donald Trumps udspil til h\u00f8je toldsatser er markant. Han h\u00e6vder selv, at der er muligheder for at f\u00e5 lavere satser, hvis man selv s\u00e6tter sine egne satser ned. Europa vil reagere p\u00e5 to m\u00e5der: Indf\u00f8re nye satser og indbyde til forhandlinger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"den-danske-vinkel\"><strong>Den danske vinkel<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Det ser ud til, at medicinal er undtaget. I hvert fald i f\u00f8rste omgang. Det betyder selvsagt en hel del for Danmark. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/aktier\/kurser\/novo-nordisk-b-novo-b-xcse\">Novo Nordisk<\/a> producerer allerede en v\u00e6sentlig del af sit USA-salg i USA og mere vil komme til. K\u00f8bet af Catalent giver en ekstra produktionsenhed, og Novo Nordisk er i gang med investeringer p\u00e5 4 mia. USD i North Carolina. For de \u00f8vrige life science-selskaber b\u00f8r det v\u00e6re opl\u00f8ftende, at medicinalprodukter, i hvert fald i f\u00f8rste omfang, synes at v\u00e6re undtaget.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hjemmemarkedsorienterede selskaber s\u00e5som banker og forsikringsselskaber har kun en overvejende indirekte effekt via afledte v\u00e6kstp\u00e5virkninger eller den indflydelse, som bev\u00e6gelserne p\u00e5 aktier, obligationer og valuta giver.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-background\" style=\"background-color:#ebebe8\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"hvad-betyder-det-for-danske-selskaber\">Hvad betyder det for danske selskaber?<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Vestas og \u00d8rsted kan blive ramt via risikopr\u00e6mien, men ellers ikke i et s\u00e6rligt stort omfang<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/aktier\/kurser\/dsv-xcse\">DSV<\/a> og Maersk kan m\u00e6rke tolden via forventninger om, at f\u00e6rre varer skal transporteres rundt i verden.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/aktier\/kurser\/gn-store-nord-gn-xcse\">GN Store Nord<\/a> har advaret om told mod \u201dSteelseries\u201d, men samtidig er aktien allerede lavt prissat og under h\u00e5rdt kurspres.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"globale-observationer\"><strong>Globale observationer<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Tesla falder med mere end 8 % i eftermarkedet. Det er helt naturligt. Aktien steg i g\u00e5r p\u00e5 svage leverancetal for 1. kvartal. Stigningen var drevet af forventninger om, at Elon Musk tr\u00e6kker sig fra \u201dpolitik\u201d. Trods det vil den globale forbruger forbinde Tesla med Donald Trump og told. Tesla kan f\u00e5 kursk\u00e6rligheden at f\u00f8le de kommende dage. Ogs\u00e5 amerikanske tech-selskaber falder markant, herunder Nvidia. Det er helt naturligt, fordi markedsusikkerheden er stor, og alle investorer i passive portef\u00f8lje er meget investeret her.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-background\" style=\"background-color:#ebebe8\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"kursfald-i-usa\">Kursfald i USA<\/h6>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>USA-aktier har generelt den h\u00f8jeste faldh\u00f8jde. 71 % af en global portef\u00f8lje i MSCI Core er USA.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Nike falder 5 % i eftermarkedet. En stor del af deres produktion er i Vietnam, som f\u00e5r en h\u00f8j toldsats. Det er en st\u00f8rre udfordring for investorerne. Udover told er det, at Nike generelt er udfordret, og den amerikanske \u00f8konomi kan meget vel ende i recession drevet af forbrugerne.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/aktier\/kurser\/pay-pal-pypl-xnas\">Paypal<\/a> falder 5 %. Det vidner om, at investorerne t\u00e6nker, der kan komme en \u201dfinansiel modtold\u201d p\u00e5 tjenesteydelser.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"hvornar-griber-trump-ind\"><strong>Hvorn\u00e5r griber Trump ind? <\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Den umiddelbare konsekvens af stigende toldsatser vil v\u00e6re aktiekursfald. Det er det, som vi ser fra morgenstunden. Investorerne vil fortsat fors\u00f8ge at afkode, om der findes en \u201dTrump put\u201d; alts\u00e5 om der er en undergr\u00e6nse for, hvor meget aktierne kan eller skal falde f\u00f8r, Trump griber ind &#8211; og synes udviklingen ikke er \u201dsjov\u201d l\u00e6ngere. Her og nu er der ikke tegn p\u00e5, at vi er t\u00e6t p\u00e5 det, men det kan hurtigt \u00e6ndre sig.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Ovenst\u00e5ende er ikke en anbefaling til at k\u00f8be eller s\u00e6lge v\u00e6rdipapirer<\/em>.<em>Dette blogindl\u00e6g er udarbejdet til informationsform\u00e5l. Blogindl\u00e6gget udg\u00f8r s\u00e5ledes ikke investeringsm\u00e6ssig eller anden r\u00e5dgivning. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast. Finansielle instrumenter kan b\u00e5de stige og falde i v\u00e6rdi. Der er en risiko for, at du ikke f\u00e5r de investerede penge tilbage.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I g\u00e5r blev det officielt, at USA indf\u00f8rer &#8220;Reciprocaltariffs&#8221;. If\u00f8lge Donald Trump er det den \u201dvenlige\u201d udgave med groft sagt halvdelen af den told, som udenlandske lande ligger p\u00e5 USA. Befrielsesdagen har sat sine spor p\u00e5 aktiemarkedet. I g\u00e5r blev aktierne sendt ned, efter at Donald Trump pr\u00e6senterede sine toldplaner. Her nogle af nedslagene fra [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40015,"featured_media":66624,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1291],"tags":[1612],"class_list":["post-66603","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-persunivers"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/04\/Trump_told-150x54.jpg","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/04\/Trump_told-150x54.jpg 150w, 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