{"id":66796,"date":"2025-04-11T10:47:56","date_gmt":"2025-04-11T08:47:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/?p=66796"},"modified":"2026-03-11T15:43:23","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T14:43:23","slug":"thorleif-jackson-efter-fald-paa-60-er-det-tid-til-at-tanke-novo-nordisk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/thorleif-jackson-efter-fald-paa-60-er-det-tid-til-at-tanke-novo-nordisk\/","title":{"rendered":"Thorleif Jackson: Efter fald p\u00e5 60% er det tid til at tanke Novo Nordisk"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Novo Nordisk<\/a>-aktien toppede omkring kurs 1.030 kr. i juni 2024 og er siden faldet hele 60%. Kollapset er vel at m\u00e6rke sket, uden at indtjeningen har skuffet. Novo Nordisk er s\u00e5ledes p\u00e5 ni m\u00e5neder g\u00e5et fra at v\u00e6re historisk h\u00f8jt prissat til at v\u00e6re historisk lavt prissat. Er det blevet tid til at tanke Novo Nordisk?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Artiklen blev f\u00f8rste gang udgivet d. 9. april, hvor kursen l\u00e5 p\u00e5 404 kr. I dag, d. 2. maj 2025, ligger kursen p\u00e5 ca. 452 kr.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Om<\/figure>
Om Thorleif Jackson<\/span>

Thorleif Jackson kendt som foredragsholder og freelance skribent for Dansk Aktion\u00e6rforening, hvor han har bidraget med over 200 artikler om investering<\/a> til medlemsbladet Aktion\u00e6ren<\/em>. Han administrerer blandt andet en dansk modelportef\u00f8lje, der siden januar 2004 har leveret signifikant bedre afkast end markedet, og en nordisk udbytteportef\u00f8lje, som siden 2010 ogs\u00e5 har sl\u00e5et markedet.

Thorleif Jackson begyndte i 2006 at arbejde fuldtid med aktieanalyse og formueforvaltning. Han er selvl\u00e6rt inden for disse omr\u00e5der og har opn\u00e5et sin erfaring ved at l\u00e6se utallige investeringsb\u00f8ger og handle online for egne midler frem til karriereskiftet i 2006.<\/p><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Novo Nordisks indtjening er steget hvert \u00e5r<\/em> siden fusionen i 1989. Nedenst\u00e5ende graf viser udviklingen i indtjeningen pr. aktie (EPS) \u00e5r for \u00e5r siden 1979.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

Kilder: <\/strong>\u00c5rsrapporter (historiske tal) og MarketScreener.com (estimater)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

EPS er vokset fra 0,125 kr. i 1990 til 22,63 kr. i 2024 \u2013 svarende til en gennemsnitlig tilv\u00e6kst p\u00e5 16,5% p.a. V\u00e6ksten har ikke v\u00e6ret konstant. Se nedenst\u00e5ende graf.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

Kilder:<\/strong> \u00c5rsrapporter (historiske tal) og MarketScreener.com (estimater)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I \u00e5rene 2017, 2018 og 2019 var v\u00e6ksten eksempelvis helt nede omkring 3% p.a. V\u00e6ksten accelererede i 2020, 2021 og 2022, og v\u00e6ksten gik helt grassat med 52% i 2023. I 2024 voksede indtjeningen 22%. Markedet forventer pt., at EPS vokser fra 22,63 kr. i 2024 til 37,45 kr. i 2027. Det svarer til fornyet v\u00e6kst p\u00e5 ca. 18,3% p.a. V\u00e6ksten er is\u00e6r drevet af et st\u00e6rkt salg af selskabets fedmemedicin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Novo Nordisk-aktien har de seneste 21 \u00e5r det meste af tiden v\u00e6ret prissat i en forholdsvist smal kurskanal mellem P\/E=17 og P\/E=30. Se nedenst\u00e5ende graf.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

Kilder:<\/strong> \u00c5rsrapporter (historisk indtjening), MarketScreener.com (estimater) og Yahoo! Finance (aktiekurser<\/a>).<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indtil 2022 var Novo Nordisks absolut h\u00f8jeste priss\u00e6tning P\/E2000<\/sub>=38 i januar 2001. Efterf\u00f8lgende faldt kursen n\u00e6sten 50%. Aktien var ogs\u00e5 prissat over kanalen i 2015 og faldt efterf\u00f8lgende 40% fra kurs 200 kr. til kurs 120 kr. I juni 2024 toppede kursen over 1.000 kr. svarende til en historisk h\u00f8j priss\u00e6tning med P\/E2023<\/sub>=54 og P\/E2024<\/sub>=44.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Siden juni 2024 er kursen faldet ca. 60% til 404 kr. pr. 9. april 2025. Med den kurs er aktien prissat svarende til P\/E2024<\/sub>=18, P\/E2025<\/sub>=15 og P\/E2026<\/sub>=12. Det er historisk billigt for Novo Nordisk. Aktien er s\u00e5ledes p\u00e5 ni m\u00e5neder g\u00e5et fra at v\u00e6re historisk h\u00f8jt prissat til at v\u00e6re historisk lavt prissat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hvis indtjeningen udvikler sig som forventet af markedet lige nu (EPS2027<\/sub>=37,45 kr.), og Novo Nordisk om sm\u00e5 tre \u00e5r fortsat handles inden for kurskanalen (PE=17-30), kan vi forvente en aktiekurs i december 2027 i niveauet 637\u20131124 kr. Det giver aktien kurspotentiale p\u00e5 58\u2013178% eller 18\u201345% p.a. Dertil kommer udbytter p\u00e5 ca. 3% p.a., s\u00e5 det samlede potentiale bliver hele 21-48% p.a.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ovenst\u00e5ende fremskrivning foruds\u00e6tter imidlertid, at indtjeningen udvikler sig som forventet (EPS 2027=37,45 kr.), og at aktien fortsat er prissat inden for kurskanalen p\u00e5 P\/E=17\u201330. Det er naturligvis meget muligt, at indtjeningen bliver nedjusteret og\/eller, at aktien handles lavere end P\/E=17 i december 2027. Det mest sandsynlige er imidlertid, at indtjeningen udvikler sig som forventet, og at aktien ogs\u00e5 i fremtiden handles inden for den historiske kurskanal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hvad mener du om Novo Nordisks kursridt mod skyerne i 2023 og 2024? Hvad mener du om aktiens efterf\u00f8lgende kollaps? Tror du, bunden er n\u00e5et, eller vil nedturen forts\u00e6tte? Er du enig med mig i, at det er blevet tid til at v\u00e6re gr\u00e5dig p\u00e5 Novo Nordisk, og at det er tid til at tanke op, som i 2016?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
Se ogs\u00e5 Thorleifs justering i sin globale portef\u00f8lje<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dette er ikke en k\u00f8bsanbefaling eller en salgsanbefaling. Kursen p\u00e5 Novo Nordisk kan stige eller falde, og l\u00e6seren er selv ansvarlig for sine handler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thorleif Jackson ejer selv aktier i Novo Nordisk, der b\u00e5de indg\u00e5r i Jackson FamilieInvests portef\u00f8lje, Fundamentalportef\u00f8ljen og Nordnet Global. Novo Nordisk er ogs\u00e5 n\u00e6stst\u00f8rste position i Thorleif Jacksons pensionsdepot.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dette materiale er udarbejdet af Thorleif Jackson og indeholder information, der kan anses for at v\u00e6re en investeringsanbefaling i henhold til Markedsmisbrugsforordningen (Europa-Parlamentets og R\u00e5dets forordning 596\/2014), dvs. information som anbefaler eller foresl\u00e5r en investeringsstrategi. Nordnet Bank, filial af Nordnet Bank AB, Sverige (Nordnet), har ikke deltaget i udarbejdelsen, gennemg\u00e5et eller foretaget \u00e6ndringer i materialet. Thorleif Jackson har ansvaret for materialets indhold, og at det lever op til g\u00e6ldende lovgivning og regler.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Materialet har ikke v\u00e6ret forelagt de omtalte selskaber.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dette materiale blev offentliggjort f\u00f8rste gang den 11. april 2025 kl. 10.45.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indholdet i dette materiale udg\u00f8r ikke personlig investeringsr\u00e5dgivning. Det er vigtigt, at du som investor tr\u00e6ffer dine investeringsbeslutninger ud fra din egen vurdering af information fra forskellige kilder. Nordnet p\u00e5tager sig intet ansvar for direkte eller indirekte tab som f\u00f8lge af brug af information fra dette materiale. Materialet m\u00e5 ikke gengives uden Nordnets udtrykkelige samtykke.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thorleif Jackson modtager honorar fra Nordnet. Honoraret er aftalt p\u00e5 forh\u00e5nd og er ikke afh\u00e6ngig af materialets indhold eller de virksomheder, som er omtalt heri.
Det kan forekomme, at Nordnet har positioner i v\u00e6rdipapirer, der omtales i materialet. En s\u00e5dan beholdning er da alene af administrative hensyn og uden fortjeneste for Nordnet.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nordnet er under tilsyn af Finansinspektionen i Sverige og det danske Finanstilsyn. Der er altid en risiko forbundet med at investere. Historiske afkast er ikke en garanti for fremtidige afkast. Finansielle instrumenter kan b\u00e5de stige og falde i v\u00e6rdi. Der er en risiko for, at du ikke f\u00e5r de investerede penge tilbage.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kursen p\u00e5 Novo Nordisk er faldet 60%. P\u00e5 ni m\u00e5neder er den g\u00e5et fra at v\u00e6re historisk h\u00f8j til at v\u00e6re historisk lav. Er det tid til at tanke Novo Nordisk?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40009,"featured_media":66804,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1291],"tags":[3336,2310],"class_list":["post-66796","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-aktieinspiration","tag-tophistorier"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/04\/Novo_1200_430-150x54.png","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/04\/Novo_1200_430-150x54.png 150w, 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