{"id":66831,"date":"2025-04-14T10:21:41","date_gmt":"2025-04-14T08:21:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/?p=66831"},"modified":"2025-04-23T16:01:21","modified_gmt":"2025-04-23T14:01:21","slug":"er-der-en-aktieboble-i-forsvarsaktier","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/er-der-en-aktieboble-i-forsvarsaktier\/","title":{"rendered":"Er der en boble i forsvarsaktier?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Det seneste \u00e5rs kursstigninger p\u00e5 forsvarsaktier har f\u00e5et nogle investorer til at overveje, om der kunne v\u00e6re tale om en aktieboble. S\u00e6rligt efter Ruslands invasion af Ukraine er interessen eksploderet, og en kurv af europ\u00e6iske forsvarsaktier har givet et afkast p\u00e5 hele 427 pct. Dette rejser sp\u00f8rgsm\u00e5let: Er stigningerne holdbare, eller st\u00e5r vi foran en aktieboble?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det korte svar er nej. Der er ikke tale om en boble.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hvad driver interessen for forsvarsaktierne?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Bag de store stigninger ligger der nemlig konkrete, langsigtede faktorer, som driver v\u00e6ksten. De seneste geopolitiske begivenheder, herunder krigen i Ukraine og usikkerheden om den amerikanske fremtid i NATO, har tydeliggjort et alvorligt eftersl\u00e6b i det europ\u00e6iske forsvar. Det kr\u00e6ver massive investeringer at rette op p\u00e5. Europa har i mange \u00e5r haltet langt efter NATO’s m\u00e5l om at bruge mindst 2 pct. af BNP p\u00e5 forsvarsbudgettet. Men selv 2 pct. betragtes nu som utilstr\u00e6kkeligt. NATO overvejer i \u00f8jeblikket at \u00f8ge m\u00e5let til 3,5 pct. af BNP, hvilket svarer til ekstra 470 mia. dollar \u00e5rligt \u2013 et bel\u00f8b st\u00f8rre end Danmarks samlede BNP, se figur 1. Men reelt kan m\u00e5ls\u00e6tningen godt blive endnu h\u00f8jere, og det finder vi forh\u00e5bentlig ud af ved det kommende NATO-topm\u00f8de i juni.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Figur 1: Forsvarsudgifter ved forskellige andele af BNP<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Figuren viser forsvarsudgifterne ved givne niveauer af udgift pr. BNP. Udgifterne er summeret pr. land i NATO, s\u00e5 alle de lande, der ligger under f.eks. 3,5 pct., h\u00e6ver udgifterne til 3,5 pct., mens lande, der ligger over, fastholder deres udgift.
Kilder: Sipri og Maj Invest.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I spidsen for denne udvikling st\u00e5r Tyskland, som allerede har meldt ud om historiske investeringer i forsvar. Det forventes, at de europ\u00e6iske forsvarsinvesteringer vil n\u00e5 op p\u00e5 1.135 mia. dollar (1.000 mia. euro) over de n\u00e6ste 12 \u00e5r, men reelt er der ingen \u00f8vre gr\u00e6nse. Disse investeringer markerer en fundamental \u00e6ndring i Europas sikkerhedspolitik.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hvilke omr\u00e5der vil opleve v\u00e6kst?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Den kraftige stigning i de europ\u00e6iske forsvarsbudgetter vil i h\u00f8j grad g\u00e5 til materiel, og det giver muligheder for selskaber i forsvarssektoren. Med afs\u00e6t i en analyse fra researchhuset Bernstein estimerer vi i Maj Invest, at den europ\u00e6iske forsvarsindustri kan opleve en femdobling i oms\u00e6tningen, fra 37 mia. dollar til op mod 177 mia. dollar \u00e5rligt. I det tilf\u00e6lde vil europ\u00e6iske selskaber fremover tage imod halvdelen af de samlede forsvarsordrer, der finder sted i Europa, mod under en tredjedel i dag.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To tredjedele af europ\u00e6iske forsvarsordrer g\u00e5r i dag til amerikanske leverand\u00f8rer. De vil fortsat v\u00e6re uundg\u00e5elige, n\u00e5r investeringsniveauet stiger, da den amerikanske forsvarsindustri er langt st\u00f8rre og besidder det n\u00f8dvendige knowhow, men europ\u00e6iske virksomheder vil \u00f8ge deres markedsandel betydeligt, se figur 2. Der kan s\u00e5gar v\u00e6re nationale interesser i at v\u00e6lge amerikanske leverand\u00f8rer, f.eks. leverer den danske forsvarsvirksomhed Terma til fremstilling af F35-kampfly, men ikke n\u00f8dvendigvis til de europ\u00e6iske konkurrenter. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Figur 2: Europas nye investeringer i materiel<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Note<\/a>: Ved de 355 mia. dollar antages det, at 45 pct. af forsvarsudgifterne g\u00e5r til materiel. Desuden antages det, at 50 pct. g\u00e5r til europ\u00e6iske leverand\u00f8rer, mod 40 pct. til amerikanske og 10 pct. til \u00f8vrige. Opgjort i konstante 2022-priser.
Kilder: SIPRI, Bernstein og Maj Invest.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hvilke investeringsmuligheder giver denne udvikling?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Forsvarsaktierne har en r\u00e6kke fordele, som underst\u00f8tter yderligere v\u00e6kst:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. Geopolitisk strukturel \u00e6ndring<\/strong>: Europas behov for selvst\u00e6ndigt forsvar \u00f8ges betydeligt som f\u00f8lge af global usikkerhed og reduceret tillid til USA’s sikkerhedsgaranti.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Lav eksponering i investorernes portef\u00f8ljer<\/strong>: Historisk set har forsvarsaktier v\u00e6ret underrepr\u00e6senterede i globale portef\u00f8ljer, hvilket efterlader betydeligt potentiale for yderligere investeringer.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. Forsvarsindustriens oligopolistiske karakter<\/strong>: En h\u00f8j grad af koncentration og h\u00f8je adgangsbarrierer g\u00f8r, at virksomhederne kan \u00f8ge priserne uden v\u00e6sentligt tab af markedsandele, hvilket underst\u00f8tter h\u00f8j indtjening.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Selvom forsvarsaktiernes priss\u00e6tning er steget, kan niveauet stadig v\u00e6re rimeligt, n\u00e5r v\u00e6kstperspektivet tages i betragtning. En relativt h\u00f8j priss\u00e6tning er ikke en diskvalifikation, s\u00e5 l\u00e6nge indtjeningsv\u00e6ksten kan b\u00e6re det. En ligev\u00e6gtet kurv af de fem st\u00f8rste europ\u00e6iske forsvarsaktier handler nu til en pris pr. forventet indtjeningskrone, P\/E-ratio, p\u00e5 26x. Det er p\u00e5 ingen m\u00e5de uden for skiven, hvis man sammenligner med andre v\u00e6kstsektorer som f.eks. teknologisektoren, der l\u00e6nge har handlet til en P\/E omkring 28x.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Det skyldes ogs\u00e5, at aktieanalytikerne forventer stigende indtjening i virksomhederne. Deres forventninger vil l\u00f8bende blive justeret, alt imens virksomhederne udbygger kapacitet, vinder offentlige forsvarskontrakter eller m\u00f8der udfordringer undervejs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    I \u00f8jeblikket forventer analytikerne, at de st\u00f8rste europ\u00e6iske forsvarsvirksomheder vil \u00f8ge deres overskud med 35 pct. \u00e5rligt frem mod 2029, se figur 3. Til sammenligning er den forventede overskudsv\u00e6kst for verdensindekset p\u00e5 9 pct. \u00e5rligt over de kommende \u00e5r. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Figur 3. Indtjening pr. aktie er i v\u00e6kst<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
    \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    Note: Figuren angiver gennemsnitligt overskud pr. aktie opgjort i dollar for virksomheder med salg i forsvarsindustrien i hhv. Europa og USA. Europa best\u00e5r af en ligev\u00e6gtet kurv af Rheinmetall, Safran, Thales, BAE Systems og Leonardo. USA best\u00e5r af en ligev\u00e6gtet kurv af Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, RTX<\/a> Group, General Dynamics og L3Harris.
    Kilder: Bloomberg og Maj Invest.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Kan der opst\u00e5 bump p\u00e5 vejen?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Som med al aktieinvestering er investering<\/a> i forsvarsaktier forbundet med risiko. Efter vores vurdering vil aktiemarkedet i s\u00e6rlig grad forholde sig til f\u00f8lgende:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    1. Kapacitetsudfordringer:<\/strong> Europ\u00e6iske forsvarsvirksomheder skal udbygge kapacitet i stor grad for at kunne levere til den nu markant h\u00f8jere europ\u00e6iske eftersp\u00f8rgsel. Det vil skabe flaskehalse flere steder.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    2. Politiske beslutningsprocesser:<\/strong> Trods velvilje blandt EU\u2019s beslutningstagere har eksempler fra vores eget politiske system understreget, at der kan v\u00e6re langt fra tanke til handling, n\u00e5r det kommer til s\u00e5 store investeringer som nyt forsvarsmateriel.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    3. Geopolitisk usikkerhed: <\/strong>Det globale konfliktniveau er h\u00f8jt, og NATO-alliancen fremst\u00e5r ikke helt s\u00e5 stabil som tidligere. Det fremskynder forsvarsinvesteringer. Omvendt kan v\u00e5benhvileaftaler eller nye handelsaftaler d\u00e6mpe risikobilledet og s\u00e6nke investeringstempoet.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

      Efter vores opfattelse i Maj Invest \u00e6ndrer disse risici ikke p\u00e5 den fundamentale v\u00e6ksthistorie, som forventes at drive markedet fremover. Men som altid er det fornuftigt at sikre sig en spredning inden for temaet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Vores konklusion er klar:<\/strong> Vi ser ikke en aktieboble i forsvarsaktier. Tv\u00e6rtimod st\u00e5r vi over for en strukturel v\u00e6kstperiode, der kan give investorer fornuftige afkast i \u00e5rene fremover. Forsvarsaktier er en interessant komponent i en samlet portef\u00f8lje, og derfor har vi i Maj Invest lanceret en UCITS ETF<\/a> med netop det fokus. L\u00e6s mere om Maj Invests UCITS ETF med fokus p\u00e5 forsvar og cybersikkerhed her<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      <\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Materialet er produceret af Maj Invest og skal anses som markedsf\u00f8ringsmateriale. Form\u00e5let med materialet er at give generel information om investeringsmulighederne og skal ikke betragtes som en investeringsanbefaling. Nordnet tager forbehold for n\u00f8jagtigheden af de angivne informationer, hvad enten de er leveret af Maj Invest selv eller hentet fra offentligt tilg\u00e6ngelige kilder.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Nordnet er ikke ansvarlig for dispositioner eller undladelser foretaget p\u00e5 baggrund af informationerne. Nordnet anbefaler sagkyndig og professionel vejledning ved investeringsbeslutninger. Nordnet modtager provision fra Maj Invest.<\/em>
      Se alle satser <\/em>      her<\/em><\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Historiske og tidligere afkast og\/eller kursudviklinger kan ikke anvendes som p\u00e5lidelig indikator for fremtidige afkast og\/eller kursudvikling. Tegning af andele b\u00f8r ske p\u00e5 baggrund af prospekt, vedt\u00e6gter og central investorinformation. Informationen findes p\u00e5 majinvest.dk<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Det seneste \u00e5rs kursstigninger p\u00e5 forsvarsaktier har f\u00e5et nogle investorer til at overveje, om der kunne v\u00e6re tale om en aktieboble. S\u00e6rligt efter Ruslands invasion af Ukraine er interessen eksploderet, og en kurv af europ\u00e6iske forsvarsaktier har givet et afkast p\u00e5 hele 427 pct. Dette rejser sp\u00f8rgsm\u00e5let: Er stigningerne holdbare, eller st\u00e5r vi foran en […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":68632,"featured_media":66897,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1291],"tags":[3336,2310],"class_list":["post-66831","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-aktieinspiration","tag-tophistorier"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/04\/1200x430-150x54.png","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/04\/1200x430-150x54.png 150w, 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