{"id":66956,"date":"2025-04-22T12:00:08","date_gmt":"2025-04-22T10:00:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/?p=66956"},"modified":"2025-07-03T13:56:23","modified_gmt":"2025-07-03T11:56:23","slug":"derfor-sender-eli-lilly-novo-aktien-massivt-ned","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/derfor-sender-eli-lilly-novo-aktien-massivt-ned\/","title":{"rendered":"Derfor sender Eli Lilly Novo-aktien massivt ned"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Eli Lilly-aktien steg markant torsdag, da selskabet offentliggjorde v\u00e6gttabsdata, som investorerne tog godt imod. Samtidig blev <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/aktier\/kurser\/novo-nordisk-b-novo-b-xcse\">Novo Nordisk<\/a>-aktien sendt massivt ned i sin amerikanske notering. Selvom der ikke er bel\u00e6g for at sige, at Eli Lilly i sine forskningsprogrammer og med de v\u00e6gttabsdata, som de har pr\u00e6senteret, er langt foran Novo Nordisk, er der en del andre forhold, som investorerne fokuserer p\u00e5, n\u00e5r de aktuelt v\u00e6lger Novo Nordisk fra.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Eli Lilly offentliggjorde torsdag fase 3-data med deres v\u00e6gttabspille (Orforglipron), som investorerne tog godt imod:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Aktiestigningen var omtrent dobbelt s\u00e5 stor som v\u00e6gttabet over 40 uger (14,3 % vs. 7,9 %).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Samtidig faldt Novo Nordisk med 7,63 %.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Direkte omregnet til DKK med USD\/DKK p\u00e5 6,47, svarer det til 377,40 n\u00e5r handlen indledes tirsdag i Danmark.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Investorerne skal tilbage til september 2022 for at finde en tilsvarende eller lavere Novo Nordisk-aktiekurs.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"945\" height=\"680\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/04\/image-9.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-66959\" style=\"width:945px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/04\/image-9.png 945w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/04\/image-9-620x446.png 620w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/04\/image-9-150x108.png 150w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/04\/image-9-768x553.png 768w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/04\/image-9-500x360.png 500w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/04\/image-9-800x576.png 800w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/04\/image-9-370x266.png 370w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/04\/image-9-270x194.png 270w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/04\/image-9-570x410.png 570w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/04\/image-9-740x532.png 740w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 945px) 100vw, 945px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Figur 1: Kursudvikling, Novo Nordisk, 3 \u00e5r. Data trukket d. 22\/04\/2025. Kilde: Nordnet<\/em>. <em>Husk, at historisk afkast ikke er nogen garanti for fremtidigt afkast.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"mindst-fem-forhold-som-aktuelt-giver-eli-lilly-overhanden-hos-investorerne\"><strong>Mindst fem forhold, som aktuelt giver Eli Lilly overh\u00e5nden hos investorerne<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Et v\u00e6gttab p\u00e5 7,9 % over 40 uger hos overv\u00e6gtige med diabetes er noget, men ikke reelt banebrydende. Alligevel falder investorerne p\u00e5 halen over tallene og sender Eli Lilly op og Novo Nordisk ned. Det er der formentlig bl.a. disse fem grunde til:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-background\" style=\"background-color:#ebebe8\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"de-fem-forhold\">De fem forhold<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Der er positiv momentum i Eli Lilly-aktien, mens det omvendte g\u00f8r sig g\u00e6ldende for Novo Nordisk. Investorerne k\u00f8ber som bekendt ikke en aktie kortsigtet p\u00e5 grund af prisen, men fordi de h\u00e5ber, den stiger i morgen og vice versa.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Eli Lillys data var fase 3, og data er mere fasefremskredne med hensyn til en v\u00e6gttabspille end Novo Nordisk. Det p\u00e5 trods af, at Novo Nordisk er p\u00e5 vej med en ans\u00f8gning om en v\u00e6gttabspille.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Eli Lillys fors\u00f8g med Orforglipron er \u201dsmall molecule\u201d, som kan v\u00e6re billigere at producere og nemmere at skalere.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Investorerne frygter, at Novo Nordisk vil pr\u00e6cisere deres hel\u00e5rsforventninger negativt til 2025, senest n\u00e5r de freml\u00e6gger deres 1. kvartalsregnskab (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/kommende-danske-regnskaber-fylder-politik-mere-end-oekonomi\/\">link til regnskabskalender<\/a>)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Eli Lilly har amerikansk hjemmebanefordel p\u00e5 det store amerikanske marked i en tid pr\u00e6get af Donald Trump, og hvor det kan v\u00e6re afg\u00f8rende, hvem som har v\u00e6ret \u201dtil middag hos\u201d den amerikanske pr\u00e6sident.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"er-en-vaegtabspille-bedre\"><br><strong>Er en v\u00e6gtabspille bedre?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>I separate samtaler i Investeringspodcasten med CEO i <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/aktier\/kurser\/zealand-pharma-zeal-xcse\">Zealand Pharma<\/a>, Adam Steensberg <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=3uaTz9fX9Gg\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">(lyt til afsnittet her<\/a>), og CFO i Novo Nordisk, Karsten Munk Knudsen (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=SudI-mLwAHQ\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">lyt til afsnittet her)<\/a>, har begge givet udtryk for, at selv om v\u00e6gttab i pilleform lyder mere besn\u00e6rende end injektion, er det deres mening, at produktions\u00f8konomi (bl.a. m\u00e6ngden af API) samt bivirkningsprofil kan favorisere injektioner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Novo Nordisk meddelte i forbindelse med sit 2024 \u00e5rsregnskab, at en ans\u00f8gning om en tabletudgave af Semaglutide ville blive indsendt inden for f\u00e5 m\u00e5neder. En ans\u00f8gning som chefen for investor relations i Novo Nordisk har bekr\u00e6ftet overfor Nordnet. Investorerne kan have f\u00e5et indtrykket af, at Novo Nordisk forskningsm\u00e6ssigt er bagefter Eli Lilly. Novo Nordisk selv har udtalt, at de mener at v\u00e6re konkurrencedygtige med den bredeste portef\u00f8lje indenfor overv\u00e6gt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"cargrisema-bliver-ved-med-at-slide-pa-investortilliden\"><strong>CargriSema bliver ved med at slide p\u00e5 investortilliden<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>P\u00e5 mig virker det som om, at investorerne bliver ved med at v\u00e6re skuffede over, at Novo Nordisk ikke var i stand til at indfri deres forventninger om et v\u00e6gttab p\u00e5 mere end 25 % med Cagrisema. Det er skuffelsen, som sidder dybt. Ogs\u00e5 selvom det ikke bliver sagt og n\u00e6vnt direkte. Barren blev formentlig sat lidt for h\u00f8jt, og trods 22,7 % mod 25 % ikke er en meget stor forskel for den enkelte bruger, er der i aktiemarkedet et stort fokus p\u00e5 procenter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"investorerne-leder-efter-aktietilbagekobet\"><strong>Investorerne leder efter aktietilbagek\u00f8bet<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Novo Nordisk meddelte i 2024, at de ikke planlagde aktietilbagek\u00f8b i 2025. I stedet er pengene bl.a. brugt p\u00e5 forskning og produktionsudvidelser. Den ultimative kursbagstopper er resultater. Som supplement kunne et aktietilbagek\u00f8b v\u00e6re et signal om, at der er plads i \u00f8konomien. Sandsynligheden for, at det kommer, er dog nok alt i alt mindre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"dagen-startede-med-nedtur-til-novo-nordisk\"><strong>Dagen startede med nedtur til Novo Nordisk<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Da handlen startede i dag kl. 09.00, var der n\u00e6sten garanti for en stor dansk aktienedtur drevet af Novo Nordisk. Mere konkret \u00e5bnede aktien med et kursfald t\u00e6t p\u00e5 10 %, hvilket ikke var en st\u00f8rre overraskelse, fordi den er direkte drevet af to forhold: Dels den amerikanske nedtur i ADR-noteringen, som satte ind torsdag og som holdt mandag, og dels en fortsat meget stor sv\u00e6kkelse af USD\/DKK.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"945\" height=\"681\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/04\/image-8.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-66958\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/04\/image-8.png 945w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/04\/image-8-620x447.png 620w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/04\/image-8-150x108.png 150w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/04\/image-8-768x553.png 768w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/04\/image-8-500x360.png 500w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/04\/image-8-800x577.png 800w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/04\/image-8-370x267.png 370w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/04\/image-8-270x195.png 270w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/04\/image-8-570x411.png 570w, https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/04\/image-8-740x533.png 740w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 945px) 100vw, 945px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Figur 2: Eli Lilly vs Novo Nordisk, ADR, 1 uge. Data trukket d. 22\/04\/2025. Kilde: Nordnet. <em>Husk, at historisk afkast ikke er nogen garanti for fremtidigt afkast.<\/em><br><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"skeptiske-amerikanere-driver-kursen-lavere\"><strong>Skeptiske amerikanere driver kursen lavere<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Faldet er sket i USA, og ikke som det oftest sker, at en parallel notering tilpasser sig den kurs, som er sat ved et selskabs hovednotering og p\u00e5 hjemmebanen. Det viser, at nedturen skyldes skeptiske amerikanere, som formentlig har overtaget \u201dstyringen\u201d af aktien.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Ovenst\u00e5ende er ikke en anbefaling til at k\u00f8be eller s\u00e6lge v\u00e6rdipapirer<\/em>. <em>Dette blogindl\u00e6g er udarbejdet til informationsform\u00e5l. Blogindl\u00e6gget udg\u00f8r s\u00e5ledes ikke investeringsm\u00e6ssig eller anden r\u00e5dgivning. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast. Finansielle instrumenter kan b\u00e5de stige og falde i v\u00e6rdi. Der er en risiko for, at du ikke f\u00e5r de investerede penge tilbage.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Eli Lilly-aktien steg markant torsdag, da selskabet offentliggjorde v\u00e6gttabsdata, som investorerne tog godt imod. Samtidig blev Novo Nordisk-aktien sendt massivt ned i sin amerikanske notering. Selvom der ikke er bel\u00e6g for at sige, at Eli Lilly i sine forskningsprogrammer og med de v\u00e6gttabsdata, som de har pr\u00e6senteret, er langt foran Novo Nordisk, er der en [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40015,"featured_media":66661,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1291],"tags":[1612],"class_list":["post-66956","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-persunivers"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/04\/IMG_0098_1200x430-150x54.png","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/04\/IMG_0098_1200x430-150x54.png 150w, 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