{"id":67592,"date":"2025-06-03T10:43:48","date_gmt":"2025-06-03T08:43:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/?p=67592"},"modified":"2025-06-03T10:43:49","modified_gmt":"2025-06-03T08:43:49","slug":"er-groenne-aktier-klar-til-et-comeback","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/er-groenne-aktier-klar-til-et-comeback\/","title":{"rendered":"Er gr\u00f8nne aktier klar til et comeback?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Gr\u00f8nne aktier<\/a> har v\u00e6ret under pres i flere \u00e5r, prim\u00e6rt p\u00e5 grund af stigende renter og politisk usikkerhed, men for den t\u00e5lmodige investor kan vindene v\u00e6re ved at vende. Strukturelt peger udviklingen i \u00e9n retning: mere elektrificering og dermed st\u00f8rre behov for str\u00f8m fra vedvarende energikilder. Kombinationen af lavere v\u00e6rdians\u00e6ttelser og stigende eftersp\u00f8rgsel g\u00f8r det relevant at genoverveje sektoren.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Om<\/figure>
Om Astrid Gram Nielsen<\/span>

Astrid Gram Nielsen er \u00f8konom i Maj Invest og besk\u00e6ftiger sig med global makro\u00f8konomi og koblingen til finansmarkederne.<\/em><\/p><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n


Fremtidens eftersp\u00f8rgsel er massiv<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Verden elektrificeres i hastigt tempo. Nye teknologier som AI (kunstig intelligens) og datacentre \u00f8ger behovet for stabil og billig str\u00f8m, og den udvikling er f\u00f8rst lige begyndt. If\u00f8lge en fremskrivning lavet af Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory vil elforbruget alene til de amerikanske datacentre udg\u00f8re mellem 6,7 pct. og 12 pct. af det samlede amerikanske elforbrug allerede i 2028 \u2013 en stigning fra 1,9 pct. i 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Samtidig er r\u00e5varemarkederne begyndt at afspejle den strukturelle transformation: Prisen p\u00e5 kobber er igen p\u00e5 vej opad, selv om Trumps toldkaos har s\u00e6nket forventningerne til global v\u00e6kst. Det tolkes generelt som et v\u00e6kstsignal, men er ogs\u00e5 et tegn p\u00e5 fortsat udbygning af elnettet. Behovet for et robust elnet er netop blevet fremh\u00e6vet efter det str\u00f8msvigt, der ramte Den Iberiske Halv\u00f8 i april.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

P\u00e5 politisk niveau ses en ny erkendelse af, at atomkraft bliver n\u00f8dvendig, hvis elbehovet skal d\u00e6kkes effektivt og stabilt. USA har netop meldt ud, at de vil skrue markant op for atomkraftudbygningen, ligesom Tyskland nu har droppet sin modstand mod et EU-forslag fra Frankrig om at sidestille atomkraft med \u00f8vrige vedvarende energikilder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alt peger p\u00e5, at eftersp\u00f8rgslen efter gr\u00f8n str\u00f8m vil vokse \u2013 uanset aktiemarkedets hum\u00f8r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Samlet elektricitetsbehov til amerikanske datacentre<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Det gr\u00f8nne sp\u00e6nd angiver forventet elektricitetsforbrug ved datacentre. Periodevis CAGR: 6 % (2014-2018), 18 % (2018-2023) og 13 % \/ 27 % (2023-2028e).
Kilde: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, “2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report”, december 2024.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n


Gr\u00f8nne arbejdspladser er hovedsageligt skabt i republikanske stater<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

I USA er det gr\u00f8nne boom ikke blot en teknologisk transformation \u2013 det er ogs\u00e5 en jobmotor. Hundredtusindvis af nye arbejdspladser er skabt gennem investeringer i gr\u00f8n energi siden 2022, hvor pr\u00e6sident Biden fik vedtaget Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) \u2013 en finanspolitisk pakke med stort fokus p\u00e5 gr\u00f8nne investeringer. IRA har sat gang i en ny industriel b\u00f8lge i USA \u2013 med investeringer i batterifabrikker, solcelleproduktion og elbilteknologi i stor skala.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Flertallet af de nye arbejdspladser er blevet skabt i republikanske distrikter, hvilket g\u00f8r det politisk vanskeligt at tilbagerulle st\u00f8tteordningen. Men Trumps nyeste forslag til en skattereform l\u00e6gger pres p\u00e5 den gr\u00f8nne sektor. Pakken l\u00e6gger blandt andet op til at fjerne skattefradrag for investeringer i vedvarende energi og reducere de f\u00f8derale tilskud til elbiler og batterifabrikker. Disse justeringer vil \u00e6ndre regnestykket for mange projekter \u2013 s\u00e6rligt i en tid med h\u00f8je renter. Det kan f\u00f8re til f\u00e6rre nye investeringer og true tusindvis af gr\u00f8nne arbejdspladser, s\u00e6rligt i netop de republikansk-dominerede omr\u00e5der, der har nydt godt af IRA-pakken.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Jobskabelse i USA siden Q3 2022 fordelt p\u00e5 gr\u00f8nne industrier<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Siden vedtagelsen af IRA er der skabt netto 398.986 jobs, heraf 210.170 i republikanske distrikter, i forbindelse med gr\u00f8nne energiinvesteringer fra og med Q3 2022 til og med Q1 2025.
Kilde: Climate Power “THE STATE OF CLEAN ENERGY JOBS”, opdateret 30. april 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n


Aktiepriserne indregner st\u00f8rstedelen af de negative nyheder<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Gr\u00f8nne aktier \u2013 s\u00e6rligt inden for sol og vind \u2013 har haft det sv\u00e6rt. Mange projekter blev lanceret i en periode med lave renter, og i takt med rentestigningerne er finansieringsomkostningerne ogs\u00e5 vokset. Derfor er flere forretningsmodeller kommet under pres. Samtidig har den politiske usikkerhed \u2013 is\u00e6r i USA \u2013 v\u00e6ret en faktor bag investorernes tilbageholdenhed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For mange investorer er det ikke kun de \u00f8konomiske konsekvenser, men ogs\u00e5 det politiske signal, der bekymrer. Usikkerhed om langsigtet st\u00f8tte sv\u00e6kker incitamentet til at indg\u00e5 i fler\u00e5rige gr\u00f8nne infrastrukturprojekter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Men \u00e9t vedvarende energisegment er g\u00e5et mod str\u00f8mmen. Atomkraft har f\u00e5et politisk medvind i b\u00e5de Europa og USA og handles til h\u00f8jere multipler. Det afspejler investorernes tro p\u00e5, at atomkraft vil spille en voksende rolle som stabil energikilde i det vedvarende energimix. Sol og vind forbliver dog centrale \u2013 ikke mindst fordi de er blandt de billigste teknologier, n\u00e5r de er i drift. Med fremskridt inden for batteriteknologi bliver disse kilder endnu mere attraktive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Historisk afkast og priss\u00e6tning p\u00e5 gr\u00f8nne teknologier (eksempelvirksomheder)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Indeks 03.01.20 = 100. Angiver totalafkast inkl. geninvesteret nettoudbytte m\u00e5lt i danske kroner t.o.m. 23.05.25. P\/E angiver pris ift. forventet
indtjening over de n\u00e6ste 12 m\u00e5neder.
Kilde: Bloomberg.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n


Stor eftersp\u00f8rgsel baner vejen for comeback til gr\u00f8nne aktier \u2013 men husk spredning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Den gr\u00f8nne omstilling er ikke et valg, men snarere et sp\u00f8rgsm\u00e5l om tid. Og mens USA\u2019s gr\u00f8nne st\u00f8tte er sat p\u00e5 politisk pr\u00f8ve, accelererer b\u00e5de EU og Kina investeringerne i vedvarende energi. Det globale elforbrug stiger markant, og teknologiske fremskridt baner vejen for en ny fase i sektorens udvikling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

De seneste par \u00e5r har v\u00e6ret h\u00e5rde ved gr\u00f8nne selskaber, men netop det kan g\u00f8re timingen gunstig. For investorer, der kan se ud over den politiske st\u00f8j, kan gr\u00f8nne aktier igen blive en interessant komponent i en global aktieportef\u00f8lje. Men det er vigtigt at huske b\u00e5de geografisk spredning \u2013 fx mod Europa, hvor st\u00f8ttepolitikken p.t. er mere stabil og bredt forankret \u2013 og teknologisk spredning. Dette kan bl.a. opn\u00e5s gennem en diversificeret investeringsfond. I Maj Invest har vi lanceret en UCITS ETF<\/a> inden for dette tema.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


L\u00e6s mere om Maj Invests UCITS ETF med fokus p\u00e5 sol- og vindenergi samt atomkraft her<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Materialet er produceret af Maj Invest og skal anses som markedsf\u00f8ringsmateriale. Form\u00e5let med materialet er at give generel information om investeringsmulighederne og skal ikke betragtes som en investeringsanbefaling. Nordnet tager forbehold for n\u00f8jagtigheden af de angivne informationer, hvad enten de er leveret af Maj Invest selv eller hentet fra offentligt tilg\u00e6ngelige kilder.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nordnet er ikke ansvarlig for dispositioner eller undladelser foretaget p\u00e5 baggrund af informationerne. Nordnet anbefaler sagkyndig og professionel vejledning ved investeringsbeslutninger. Nordnet modtager provision fra Maj Invest.<\/em>
Se alle satser <\/em>her<\/em><\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Historiske og tidligere afkast og\/eller kursudviklinger kan ikke anvendes som p\u00e5lidelig indikator for fremtidige afkast og\/eller kursudvikling. Tegning af andele b\u00f8r ske p\u00e5 baggrund af prospekt, vedt\u00e6gter og central investorinformation. Informationen findes p\u00e5 majinvest.dk<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Gr\u00f8nne aktier har v\u00e6ret under pres, men elektrificering \u00f8ger behovet for vedvarende energi og kan give medvind til t\u00e5lmodige investorer. Er tiden inde til et comeback?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":68632,"featured_media":67594,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1291],"tags":[3336,2310],"class_list":["post-67592","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-aktieinspiration","tag-tophistorier"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/05\/esg1200x430-150x54.png","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/05\/esg1200x430-150x54.png 150w, 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