{"id":68224,"date":"2025-06-30T09:27:46","date_gmt":"2025-06-30T07:27:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/?p=68224"},"modified":"2025-06-30T15:38:18","modified_gmt":"2025-06-30T13:38:18","slug":"novo-nordisk-fra-darling-til-skepsis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/novo-nordisk-fra-darling-til-skepsis\/","title":{"rendered":"Novo Nordisk: Fra darling til skepsis p\u00e5 blot et \u00e5r"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

12 m\u00e5neder er g\u00e5et, siden Novo Nordisk<\/a> var investorernes darling. Markedsv\u00e6rdien oversteg 4.000 mia., aktiekursen var over 1.000, og udsigterne til yderligere v\u00e6kst frem mod 2030 var fremragende. Nu er meget \u00e6ndret \u2013 i hvert fald p\u00e5 kort sigt for aktion\u00e6rerne.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

P\u00e5 et \u00e5r er aktiekursen smuldret mellem h\u00e6nderne p\u00e5 investorerne. Hvis man zoomer ud og ser p\u00e5 udviklingen i et l\u00e6ngere tidsperspektiv, har der stadig v\u00e6ret massive kursstigninger. Men som altid er det den seneste nedtur, som st\u00e5r klart i erindringen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Figur 1: Kursudvikling, 3 \u00e5r, Novo Nordisk d.30\/06\/25. Kilde: Nordnet<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
\n

Der er mange \u00e5rsager til, at nedturen er blevet s\u00e5 stor og markant, som den er:<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
    \n
  1. Opturen var meget stejl. Nedturen kan i et vist omfang ses som en modreaktion p\u00e5 opturen.
    <\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. I 2024 var Novo Nordisk en klar nummer \u00e9t og markedsleder p\u00e5 overv\u00e6gtsmarkedet.
    <\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. Investorernes lyst til at investere i fedmeaktier var meget stor.
    <\/li>\n\n\n\n
  4. Eli Lilly har nu f\u00e5et sin marketingmaskine op i gear og opn\u00e5et et betydeligt momentum.
    <\/li>\n\n\n\n
  5. Der vil v\u00e6re mange forskellige akt\u00f8rer, som g\u00f8r sig h\u00e5b om at f\u00e5 en bid af overv\u00e6gtskagen, og investorerne spreder deres penge flere steder.
    <\/li>\n\n\n\n
  6. V\u00e6kstforventningerne fra 2030 og fremefter er faldet.
    <\/li>\n\n\n\n
  7. Markedsudsigterne og markedssammens\u00e6tningen har \u00e6ndret sig.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Fra medicinsk behandling til et \u201cforbrugerprodukt\u201d<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Ting \u00e6ndrer sig l\u00f8bende, og et af de forhold som formentlig har givet mest stof til eftertanke hos selskaber, analytikere og investorer er, hvordan v\u00e6gttabsmarkedet forventes at v\u00e6re sammensat og udvikle sig i de kommende \u00e5r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    For fem \u00e5r siden var v\u00e6gttabsmarkedet stadig p\u00e5 tegnebr\u00e6ttet. Udfordringerne med overv\u00e6gt var et tiltagende, globalt problem, som begyndte at f\u00e5 mere opm\u00e6rksomhed. V\u00e6gttabsmarkedet var dog ikke et, der for alvor havde f\u00e5et de helt store markedsst\u00f8rrelser klistret p\u00e5 sig.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    V\u00e6gttab blev big business<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Siden er billedet af v\u00e6gttabsmarkedet blevet mere nuanceret. Overv\u00e6gt og de relaterede lidelser er blevet til en samfundsudfordring, som vi alle ikke kun skulle forholde os til, men ogs\u00e5 v\u00e6re med til at finansiere. Der kom markedsv\u00e6rdist\u00f8rrelser p\u00e5, og v\u00e6gttab blev big business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    P\u00e5 blot f\u00e5 \u00e5r er der sket rigtig meget, og markedet bev\u00e6ger sig stadig. For et \u00e5r siden var der fokus p\u00e5 100 mia. USD i 2030, og der var udsigt til fortsat st\u00f8rre v\u00e6kst. I dag er den markedsforudsigelse \u00e6ndret, og v\u00e6ksten mindre. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Det skyldes mere realistiske foruds\u00e6tninger og\/eller m\u00e5ske ogs\u00e5 forventningen om, at for at v\u00e6gttabsmedicin for alvor skal blive allemandseje, er priserne n\u00f8dt til at falde hurtigere end tidligere forventet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Markedet deler sig: Det medicinske marked vs. forbrugermarkedet<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Markedet er ogs\u00e5 delt mere skarpt op end tidligere. Fokus er ikke kun p\u00e5 den del, hvor overv\u00e6gt kan v\u00e6re livstruende, men ogs\u00e5 p\u00e5 de tilf\u00e6lde, hvor der kan v\u00e6re negative f\u00f8lgelidelser, som har en betydelig indflydelse p\u00e5 den enkelte. Det er stadig et stort marked, som er medicinsk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Det medicinske marked vil fortsat v\u00e6re subkutant<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Dette marked vil formentlig fortsat v\u00e6re subkutant (injektion). Injektionsbehandling har den fordel, at m\u00e6ngden af det aktive, virksomme stof, som skal gives, er dramatisk mindre end i pilleform, og det har betydning for bivirkningsprofilen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Forbrugermarkedet domineres af piller og kosmetiske v\u00e6gttab<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Ved siden af det medicinske marked er der det, jeg kalder \u201cforbrugermarkedet\u201d. Det er et marked for dem, som \u00f8nsker et mindre v\u00e6gttab. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    Det kan meget vel v\u00e6re i pilleform og med en \u201cstandardbehandling\u201d. Fordelen her er, at doseringen vil v\u00e6re mindre, og man kommer ret hurtigt til at kende bivirkningerne, fordi de data, man kan indsamle, bliver meget omfattende, da der er mange, der benytter behandlingen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Har Novo Nordisk l\u00e6st markedet rigtigt?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Sp\u00f8rgsm\u00e5let er, om Novo Nordisk kan holde trit med udviklingen, og om de er lige s\u00e5 godt forberedt p\u00e5, at markedet deler sig i to (eller flere dele) med hver sine karakteristika. Det er m\u00e5ske \u2013 eller formentlig \u2013 noget af det, som investorerne i det mindste sp\u00f8rger sig selv om.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Har 16. maj lammet organisationen?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Den 16. maj besluttede Novo Nordisk Fonden, at det var tid til at finde en ny CEO. P\u00e5 det tidspunkt havde aktienedturen i Novo Nordisk varet l\u00e6nge og sat sine tydelige spor. Men set udefra, hvor jeg st\u00e5r, virker det, som om organisationen er usikker p\u00e5, hvad der er det rigtige at g\u00f8re. P\u00e5 den m\u00e5de kan fyringen have lammet organisationen og ledelsen. Det ser i hvert fald s\u00e5dan ud, hvis man betragter aktiekursen og nogle af de beslutninger, som bliver taget.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Forvirring om \u201cHims og Hers\u201d<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Novo Nordisk har fors\u00f8gt at stoppe eftervirkningerne af deres udfordringer med at levere lige s\u00e5 meget fedmemedicin, som der blev efterspurgt. If\u00f8lge forlydender har det amerikanske marked v\u00e6ret delt i tre mellem Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk og compounding i l\u00f8bet af for\u00e5ret 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Novo Nordisk fors\u00f8gte at f\u00e5 bugt med den “uautoriserede” del af markedet ved at indg\u00e5 en aftale med bl.a. Hims & Hers. Blot to m\u00e5neder senere blev den oph\u00e6vet igen, og det har forst\u00e6rket aktienedturen. Et n\u00e6rliggende sp\u00f8rgsm\u00e5l er, om der har v\u00e6ret foretaget den rigtige due diligence-proces i forbindelse med indg\u00e5else af aftalen?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Gode forskningsdata uden aktiebetydning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    I sidste weekend pr\u00e6senterede Novo Nordisk bl.a. tre datas\u00e6t p\u00e5 en diabeteskonference i Chicago. Det drejede sig om Wegovy, Cagrisema (flere detaljer om kendte data) samt Amycretin (nyt). Dataene var gode, men investorerne fokuserer nu p\u00e5 det, som ikke er helt i top, og finder hullerne i osten. Det er den store forskel fra sidste \u00e5r. Det kan du l\u00e6se mere om her<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Minder om 2016, men er det ikke<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Novo Nordisk er udfordret, men n\u00e6ppe i krise. I hvert fald ikke ud fra den m\u00e5lestok, at der fortsat forventes en v\u00e6kst p\u00e5 17\u202f% i oms\u00e6tningen i 2025, jf. senest opdaterede guidance om 13\u201321\u202f% v\u00e6kst (17\u202f% i midtpunktet). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Den forventede v\u00e6kst er forskellen til 2016, hvor organisationen virkede r\u00e5dvild efter at have reduceret v\u00e6kstforventningerne til dengang 5\u202f% \u2013 b\u00e5de med hensyn til kortsigtede (2016) og langsigtede forventninger. Novo Nordisk fors\u00f8ger en del, men n\u00e5r man er kommet i \u201cbad standing\u201d hos investorerne, er der ingen hurtig vending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Investorerne \u00f8nsker sig en frisk start<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Den nye begyndelse starter f\u00f8rst, n\u00e5r der bliver udn\u00e6vnt en ny CEO \u2013 og gerne en med impulser udefra.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
    \n

    Hvordan skal den nye CEO s\u00e5 v\u00e6re? Investorerne har bl.a. disse fem faktorer p\u00e5 deres \u00f8nskeliste, n\u00e5r der skal v\u00e6lges en ny: <\/h2>\n\n\n\n
      \n
    • Det skal v\u00e6re en udefrakommende, som kan tilf\u00f8re organisationen nye tanker og ny energi.
      <\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Det skal gerne ske snart. En ekstern vil givetvis have et opsigelsesvarsel, og hvis der skal ske en tiltr\u00e6delse i 2025, skal udn\u00e6vnelsen ske inden for de kommende uger.
      <\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Den nye leder skal v\u00e6re politisk st\u00e6rk og kunne l\u00e6gge arm med ledelsen i USA og med Eli Lilly og de andre konkurrenter. Der findes andre markeder end USA, men det er fedest at v\u00e6re st\u00f8rst d\u00e9r.
      <\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Det er n\u00e6ppe en hemmelighed, at Novo Nordisk har en meget st\u00e6rk kultur. Det er godt, og den skal der passes p\u00e5. Samtidig har det over \u00e5rene m\u00e5ske blokeret for at bryde lidt med vanet\u00e6nkning.
      <\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Den nye leder skal turde sk\u00e6re til. N\u00e5r v\u00e6kstforventningerne g\u00e5r ned, er det vigtigt at tilpasse sin forretning. En ny leder skal derfor ogs\u00e5 turde tilpasse omkostningerne til en lavere v\u00e6kst.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

      <\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Ovenst\u00e5ende er ikke en anbefaling til at k\u00f8be eller s\u00e6lge v\u00e6rdipapirer<\/em>.Dette blogindl\u00e6g er udarbejdet til informationsform\u00e5l. Blogindl\u00e6gget udg\u00f8r s\u00e5ledes ikke investeringsm\u00e6ssig eller anden r\u00e5dgivning. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast. Finansielle instrumenter kan b\u00e5de stige og falde i v\u00e6rdi. Der er en risiko for, at du ikke f\u00e5r de investerede penge tilbage.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      12 m\u00e5neder er g\u00e5et, siden Novo Nordisk var investorernes darling. Markedsv\u00e6rdien oversteg 4.000 mia., aktiekursen var over 1.000, og udsigterne til yderligere v\u00e6kst frem mod 2030 var fremragende. Nu er meget \u00e6ndret \u2013 i hvert fald p\u00e5 kort sigt for aktion\u00e6rerne. P\u00e5 et \u00e5r er aktiekursen smuldret mellem h\u00e6nderne p\u00e5 investorerne. Hvis man zoomer ud […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40015,"featured_media":62174,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1291],"tags":[1612],"class_list":["post-68224","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-persunivers"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/09\/IMG_0146_Ph-150x54.png","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/09\/IMG_0146_Ph-150x54.png 150w, 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