{"id":68530,"date":"2025-07-14T10:28:15","date_gmt":"2025-07-14T08:28:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/?p=68530"},"modified":"2026-03-11T15:37:12","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T14:37:12","slug":"trumpt-lang-tid","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/trumpt-lang-tid\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump, told og turbulens : Derfor f\u00f8les 18 dage som meget lang tid"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Donald Trump fyrede op under toldkedlerne fredag, da han stak EU og Mexico en 30% regning, som skal betales fra og med 1. august for landenes respektive USA eksport. Men det bliver med garanti ikke den endelige regning. Mit bedste bud er stadig, at vi ender et sted mellem 10-15% for EU.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det er snart 3,5 m\u00e5neder siden, at det amerikanske toldcirkus omkring Donald Trump startede. Det var i begyndelsen af april, hvor han i forbindelse med \u201cUSAs befrielsesdag\u201d regnede sig frem til, at EU skulle betale 39% i told af deres eksport til USA. Verden m\u00e5bede, og mange t\u00e6nkte hvilken udregning, der l\u00e5 bag ved den. Det var mere simpelt end som s\u00e5: USAs handelsunderskud i procent af EUs eksport til USA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Halv pris oprundet<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Donald Trump lod forst\u00e5, at han b\u00e5de var en fair person og villig til at indg\u00e5 en af de mange “deals”, som han ofte taler om og er kendt for. Han ville lade EU slippe billigt og foreslog noget n\u00e6r halv pris oprundet. Dermed landede hans toldid\u00e9 mod EU p\u00e5 20%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU “tilbyder” 10% som generel told<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

EU har svaret igen og gjort forskellige ting. For det f\u00f8rste har EU, j\u00e6vnf\u00f8r forlydender, tilbudt en toldaftale p\u00e5 10% og formentlig ogs\u00e5, at en r\u00e6kke ensidige toldsatser p\u00e5 varer fra USA til Europa bliver afviklet. Det har dog indtil videre ikke v\u00e6ret nok.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

30% er totalt udelukket<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeg vover at sige, at 30% ikke bliver det endelige resultat, og at det heller ikke kommer i n\u00e6rheden af det.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
Det skyldes ganske enkelt:<\/h5>\n\n\n\n
    \n
  • At handlen mellem USA og EU vil g\u00e5 i st\u00e5.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • EU vil svare igen med passende udspil.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • EU vil om n\u00f8dvendigt fors\u00f8ge at ramme USA p\u00e5 “tjenester”, noget som Trump ikke mener skal med i regnskabet, og her har USA en del p\u00e5 spil. Men EU vil fors\u00f8ge forhandlingens vej.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Det startede med 20%, og det er meget usandsynligt, at det kan blive v\u00e6rre end det, og det ender heller ikke med at blive det resultat, efter min mening. Ingen kan leve med det, med undtagelse af mindre omr\u00e5der, som betyder mindre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Ingen kender satsen \u2013 heller ikke Donald Trump<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Aktuelt er der ingen, som kender den endelige sats, heller ikke Donald Trump. Det skyldes, at de tal, som han slynger ud, ikke tager deres udgangspunkt i fakta, men i en forhandlingssituation. I mods\u00e6tning til normale forhandlinger, hvor der normalt er en forankringseffekt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Det er den effekt, som tilsiger, at det endelige resultat i en forhandling ligger i n\u00e6rheden af det oprindelige udspil, som starter forhandlingerne. Udfordringen er, at ingen ved, hvor det tal ligger. Men det er ikke i n\u00e6rheden af 30%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Investorerne reagerer nerv\u00f8st<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Mandagen starter forventeligt med sm\u00e5 kursfald drevet af usikkerhed p\u00e5 0,5-1%, at d\u00f8mme efter futures-indikationerne i USA og Europa. Ingen ved, hvilket tal man kan tage udgangspunkt i som toldsats; hvad Trumps n\u00e6ste skridt vil v\u00e6re, og hvordan EU vil servere deres modsvar. Det giver samlet set kursfald, ikke kun i Europa, men ogs\u00e5 i USA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Om 18 dage er det den 1. august. P\u00e5 den ene side er der kun lidt under tre uger til. P\u00e5 den anden side vil der v\u00e6re mange muligheder for “st\u00f8j”, som investorerne vil fors\u00f8ge at blive klogere p\u00e5. Aktierne vil b\u00f8lge frem og tilbage, og formentlig mere ned end op de kommende dage og uger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Der kommer en aftale<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Der kommer en aftale. 30% er efter min mening helt udelukket. I modsat fald vil det give store kursfald. 10-15% er formentlig et fornuftigt bud, selv om det her og nu ser ud til at v\u00e6re et kompromis, som virker ut\u00e6nkeligt og ligger langt v\u00e6k. Det handler om en forhandling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Ovenst\u00e5ende er ikke en anbefaling til at k\u00f8be eller s\u00e6lge v\u00e6rdipapirer<\/em>.Dette blogindl\u00e6g er udarbejdet til informationsform\u00e5l. Blogindl\u00e6gget udg\u00f8r s\u00e5ledes ikke investeringsm\u00e6ssig eller anden r\u00e5dgivning. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast. Finansielle instrumenter kan b\u00e5de stige og falde i v\u00e6rdi. Der er en risiko for, at du ikke f\u00e5r de investerede penge tilbage.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Donald Trump fyrede op under toldkedlerne fredag, da han stak EU og Mexico en 30% regning, som skal betales fra og med 1. august for landenes respektive USA eksport. Men det bliver med garanti ikke den endelige regning. Mit bedste bud er stadig, at vi ender et sted mellem 10-15% for EU. Det er snart […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40015,"featured_media":66304,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1291],"tags":[1612],"class_list":["post-68530","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-persunivers"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/03\/trump-150x54.png","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/03\/trump-150x54.png 150w, 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