{"id":72038,"date":"2025-09-08T09:24:27","date_gmt":"2025-09-08T07:24:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/?p=72038"},"modified":"2026-03-11T15:15:42","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T14:15:42","slug":"der-er-grund-til-at-frygte-for-et-dollarkollaps","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/der-er-grund-til-at-frygte-for-et-dollarkollaps\/","title":{"rendered":"Der er grund til at frygte for et dollarkollaps"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Vi st\u00e5r m\u00e5ske midt i en global valutam\u00e6ssig transformation, som kan f\u00e5 historiske konsekvenser for verdens\u00f8konomien og for dine investeringer. Dollarens status som global reservevaluta er nemlig under pres. Denne udvikling er ikke teoretisk. Den er i gang lige nu. Og den er drevet af Trump-administrationens \u00f8konomiske politik.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dollarens truede privilegium<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

I \u00e5rtier har USA nydt godt af det, \u00f8konomer kalder et “exorbitant privilege” – et begreb, som blev opfundet af den franske finansminister Val\u00e9ry Giscard d’Estaing i 1960’erne. Det d\u00e6kker over den enorme fordel, USA har haft ved, at dollaren er verdens reservevaluta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Som den amerikanske \u00f8konom Barry Eichengreen perfekt har formuleret det: “It costs only a few cents for the Bureau of Engraving and Printing to produce a $100 bill, but other countries had to pony up $100 of actual goods in order to obtain one.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dette privilegium har gjort det muligt for USA at k\u00f8re med vedvarende underskud p\u00e5 b\u00e5de betalingsbalancen og handelsbalancen – de har importeret flere varer og tjenester, end de har eksporteret.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bagsiden af dette er kapitalstr\u00f8mmene. Underskuddet betyder, at USA har EKSPORTERET dollars (det er det, underskuddet betales med), og som global reservevaluta bliver disse dollars ivrigt absorberet af udenlandske centralbanker og investorer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Men nu er Trump i f\u00e6rd med at \u00f8del\u00e6gge dette system gennem en farlig tofrontskrig mod dollarens fundamentale styrke.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Om<\/figure>
Om Lars Christensen<\/span>

Lars Christensen er en \u00f8konom med kant, der ikke er bange for at sige sin mening, og som form\u00e5r at g\u00f8re komplekse \u00f8konomiske og finansielle emner forst\u00e5elige for alle \u2013 uden at det bliver kedeligt.

Han er internationalt anerkendt med speciale i international \u00f8konomi, Emerging Markets og pengepolitik og har t\u00e6t p\u00e5 30 \u00e5rs erfaring som embedsmand, bank\u00f8konom og selvst\u00e6ndig r\u00e5dgiver, hvilket giver ham en solid baggrund for sine skarpe analyser.<\/p><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trumps tofrontskrig mod dollaren<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Front 1: Handelskrig og toldsatser<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Som bekendt har Donald Trump gennemf\u00f8rt massive toldforh\u00f8jelser overfor stort set alle lande i verden, og den effektive gennemsnitlige amerikanske importtold er nu t\u00e6t p\u00e5 20%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Den \u00e5benlyse og direkte konsekvens af dette er naturligvis, at det presser de amerikanske importpriser op og dermed ogs\u00e5 det generelle prisniveau i USA, og derfor ogs\u00e5 i en overgangsperiode den amerikanske inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Der er dog ogs\u00e5 en anden og m\u00e5ske endda vigtigere mekanisme p\u00e5 spil: Toldsatser reducerer eftersp\u00f8rgslen efter dollars. Hvis Trump virkelig \u00f8nsker at reducere USA’s betalingsbalance- og handelsunderskud gennem \u00f8gede toldsatser, kan han utilsigtet dr\u00e6be landets “ekstravagante privilegium.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det vil betyde mindre EKSPORT af dollars – og ja, dette m\u00e5, alt andet lige, f\u00f8re til h\u00f8jere amerikanske renter (b\u00e5de reale og nominelle) og \u00f8get inflationspres – ikke prim\u00e6rt p\u00e5 grund af h\u00f8jere importpriser, men simpelthen fordi der vil v\u00e6re mindre global eftersp\u00f8rgsel efter dollars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Afg\u00f8rende er, at denne dynamik indeb\u00e6rer en h\u00f8jere s\u00e5kaldt naturlig rente. Det betyder, at Federal Reserve ville V\u00c6RE N\u00d8DT TIL at h\u00e6ve renterne bare for at opretholde en neutral pengepolitisk holdning – uanset eventuelle direkte inflationsvirkninger fra toldsatserne selv.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Front 2: Angreb p\u00e5 institutionel uafh\u00e6ngighed<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hvad der g\u00f8r situationen endnu v\u00e6rre er, at Trump direkte angriber Federal Reserves uafh\u00e6ngighed. Pr\u00e6sident Trumps angreb har n\u00e5et en intensitet, der truer selve grundlaget for uafh\u00e6ngige \u00f8konomiske institutioner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lisa Cook, medlem af Federal Reserves bestyrelse, er blevet det prim\u00e6re m\u00e5l for Trumps politiske pres.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

P\u00e5 trods af gentagne p\u00e5stande om afskedigelse er Trump st\u00f8dt p\u00e5 betydelige juridiske barrierer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve-lovens beskyttende bestemmelser er krystalklare: Bestyrelsesmedlemmer kan kun fjernes “with cause” – en juridisk standard, der kr\u00e6ver dokumenteret ineffektivitet, fors\u00f8mmelse af pligter eller forseelser i embedet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trumps retorik er ekstrem i forhold til Federal Reserve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Han har gentagne gange stemplet Federal Reserve-formand Jerome Powell<\/a> som en “stubborn MORON” og kr\u00e6vet, at Fed-bestyrelsen “ASSUME CONTROL”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dette er ikke blot politiske ytringer, men en kalkuleret strategi for at underminere institutionens trov\u00e6rdighed og uafh\u00e6ngighed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Udn\u00e6vnelsen af Stephen Miran til bestyrelsen repr\u00e6senterer et strategisk man\u00f8vre. Miran, en central arkitekt bag Trumps protektionistiske toldpolitik og en \u00e5benlys kritiker af Feds uafh\u00e6ngighed, personificerer administrationens tilgang til institutionel magtovertagelse. Samtidig har Miran ogs\u00e5 argumenteret direkte for en sv\u00e6kkelse af den amerikanske dollar som et instrument til at “genrejse” den amerikanske industri.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lige s\u00e5 bekymrende er nomineringen af E.J. Antoni til at lede Bureau of Labor Statistics, hvilket afsl\u00f8rer et bredere m\u00f8nster af institutionelt pres.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Antoni var til stede i Washington under begivenhederne den 6. januar 2021, mangler formel statistisk uddannelse og har beskrevet BLS’ metodologiske \u00e6ndringer som “Orwellian tricks”. Hans forg\u00e6nger, Erika McEntarfer, blev summarisk afskediget efter en jobrapport, der afsl\u00f8rede svag jobv\u00e6kst.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dette er ikke isolerede h\u00e6ndelser, men en systematisk strategi for at erodere gr\u00e6nserne mellem politisk lederskab og uafh\u00e6ngige \u00f8konomiske institutioner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dollarkursens udvikling<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kilde: nordnet.dk. Historiske afkast er ikke garanti for fremtidige afkast.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det minder alt for meget om Tyrkiet<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Parallellerne med Tyrkiets makro\u00f8konomiske erfaring over de seneste to \u00e5rtier er sl\u00e5ende og dybt bekymrende.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I Tyrkiet har pr\u00e6sident Erdogan de senere \u00e5r systematisk nedbrudt centralbankens uafh\u00e6ngighed. Han har fyret den ene centralbankchef efter den anden. Og det samme har gjort sig g\u00e6ldende med finansministrene. Og da inflationen sk\u00f8d i vejret som f\u00f8lge af Erdogans vanvittige handlinger, s\u00e5 fyrede han ogs\u00e5 chefen for det tyrkiske statistikbureau.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trumps USA er p\u00e5 vej ad en skr\u00e6mmende lignende sti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Politisk pres p\u00e5 Federal Reserve, gentagne fors\u00f8g p\u00e5 at underminere institutionel uafh\u00e6ngighed og strategiske udn\u00e6vnelser designet til at overtage \u00f8konomiske institutioner afspejler de tidlige stadier af Tyrkiets \u00f8konomiske sammenbrud.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hver gang Trump forst\u00e6rker sin “I love tariffs”-retorik, har amerikanske statsobligationsrenter tendens til at stige.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dette er ikke tilf\u00e6ldigt. USA’s handelsunderskud afspejles effektivt af udenlandsk finansiering af det amerikanske budgetunderskud. Hvis international handel kollapser p\u00e5 grund af aggressive toldsatspolitikker, t\u00f8rrer denne afg\u00f8rende finansieringskilde ogs\u00e5 ud.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trumps insisteren p\u00e5 lavere renter – hvis det p\u00e5tvinges gennem pres p\u00e5 Federal Reserve – ville svare til at fors\u00f8ge at lappe en finansiel d\u00e6mning med gaffatape.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hvis Fed fors\u00f8ger at undertrykke markedsdrevne rentestigninger, mens international finansiering svinder, er de sandsynlige resultater klare: dollaren kollapser, inflationen stiger, og vi ender ultimativt i et finansielt kollaps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En tikkende g\u00e6ldsbombe<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Trods det \u00f8konomisk-politiske kaos, der har udspillet sig i \u00e5r i USA, s\u00e5 m\u00e5 man sige, at de finansielle markeder har klaret det overraskende godt. Aktiemarkederne er t\u00e6t p\u00e5 historisk h\u00f8je niveauer, og selv om der tidligere i \u00e5r var tegn p\u00e5, at rentestigningerne ville l\u00f8be l\u00f8bsk, s\u00e5 har obligationsmarkederne ogs\u00e5 holdt sig overraskende rolige.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Men dollaren er ikke sluppet. Den er s\u00e5ledes sv\u00e6kket mere end 10% i \u00e5r over for blandt andet den danske krone. Og man m\u00e5 i den forbindelse bem\u00e6rke, at det jo s\u00e5 ogs\u00e5 indeb\u00e6rer, at alt, hvad der er denomineret i dollar, ogs\u00e5 er blevet 10% mindre v\u00e6rd \u2013 og i lyset af det, s\u00e5 er udviklingen p\u00e5 det amerikanske aktiemarked knap s\u00e5 overbevisende.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dertil kommer, at USA ogs\u00e5 er i akut fare for at n\u00e5 et finanspolitisk vendepunkt. Moody’s nedgradering fra Aaa til Aa1 var det f\u00f8rste varselsskud, mens 30-\u00e5rige statsobligationer, der rammer over 5%, viser, at markederne mister t\u00e5lmodigheden med finanspolitisk uansvarlighed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En potentiel dollarkrise udvikler sig typisk gennem flere sammenh\u00e6ngende faser.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det starter med stigende risikopr\u00e6mier og stejlere rentekurver \u2013 det er det, som vi ser netop nu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Herefter kan der f\u00f8lge pludselig kapitalflugt fra dollaraktiver, hvilket typisk tvinger Federal Reserve til intervention gennem rentekurvekontrol.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I mere alvorlige tilf\u00e6lde kan dette f\u00f8re til accelererende inflation og tab af tillid til dollaren. Den ultimative konsekvens kan v\u00e6re en de facto g\u00e6ldsoml\u00e6gning gennem inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Den f\u00f8derale g\u00e6ld forventes at stige fra 100% af BNP i 2025 til 118% i 2035. USA er ikke i en fuld statsg\u00e6lds- eller dollarkrise endnu, men markedssignalerne er umiskendelige, og den kritiske t\u00e6rskel n\u00e6rmer sig hurtigt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En anden illustration af dette er, at vi er p\u00e5 vej imod en situation, hvor den f\u00f8derale regering i USA bruger, hvad der svarer til 5% af BNP til at betale renter p\u00e5 den enorme og voksende g\u00e6ld. Det er naturligvis totalt uholdbart \u2013 og det er ogs\u00e5 derfor, at Trump er s\u00e5 ivrig efter at f\u00e5 Federal Reserve til at s\u00e6tte renten ned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Men hvad Trump, lige s\u00e5 lidt som Erdogan, synes at forst\u00e5 er, at hvis centralbanken fors\u00f8ger at presse renten ned under den “naturlige rente”, s\u00e5 vil det f\u00f8re til accelererende inflation. Det har vi allerede set i Tyrkiet, og hvis Trump bliver ved med at kopiere Erdogan, s\u00e5 kommer det samme til at ske i USA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Konsekvenser for investorer<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Udviklingen peger mod bekymrende tendenser for den amerikanske \u00f8konomi. Hvis de nuv\u00e6rende m\u00f8nstre forts\u00e6tter, kan det f\u00f8re til betydeligt h\u00f8jere inflation, vedvarende h\u00f8jere amerikanske renter, en sv\u00e6kkelse af dollarens internationale position og stigende udfordringer med at finansiere det amerikanske budgetunderskud.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det afg\u00f8rende er, at disse processer ikke blot er fremtidige risici – de f\u00f8rste tegn er allerede synlige i markederne nu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vi st\u00e5r ved et kritisk tidspunkt. Trumps handelskrig, kombineret med hans angreb p\u00e5 institutionel uafh\u00e6ngighed, truer med at \u00f8del\u00e6gge dollarens status som global reservevaluta – et privilegium, der har givet USA enorme \u00f8konomiske fordele i \u00e5rtier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Som dansk investor er det afg\u00f8rende at v\u00e6re opm\u00e6rksom p\u00e5 den betydelige dollar-risiko, der f\u00f8lger med investeringer i amerikanske obligationer og aktier<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vi har v\u00e6nnet os til at se dollaren som en sikker havn, men denne antagelse kan vise sig at v\u00e6re farligt for\u00e6ldet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det kan blive meget, meget v\u00e6rre for dollaren end, hvad vi har set indtil nu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I et worst-case scenario, hvor dollarsv\u00e6kkelsen accelererer n\u00e6rmest ude af kontrol, kunne Trump-administrationen endda indf\u00f8re valutakontrol. I en s\u00e5dan situation risikerer udenlandske investorer simpelthen ikke at kunne f\u00e5 deres penge ud af USA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vi er ikke der endnu – men Trump leger i den grad med ilden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Historien viser, at n\u00e5r f\u00f8rst tilliden til en valuta begynder at erodere, kan processen accelerere med overraskende hastighed. Som vi s\u00e5 i Tyrkiet, kan vejen fra valutauro til fuld valutakrise v\u00e6re kortere, end de fleste forestiller sig.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Diversificering p\u00e5 tv\u00e6rs af valutaer og regioner har sj\u00e6ldent v\u00e6ret vigtigere end nu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ovenst\u00e5ende er ikke en anbefaling til at k\u00f8be eller s\u00e6lge v\u00e6rdipapirer. Dette blogindl\u00e6g er udarbejdet til informationsform\u00e5l. Blogindl\u00e6gget udg\u00f8r s\u00e5ledes ikke investeringsm\u00e6ssig eller anden r\u00e5dgivning. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast. Finansielle instrumenter kan b\u00e5de stige og falde i v\u00e6rdi. Der er en risiko for, at du ikke f\u00e5r de investerede penge tilbage<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Vi st\u00e5r m\u00e5ske midt i en global valutam\u00e6ssig transformation, som kan f\u00e5 historiske konsekvenser for verdens\u00f8konomien og for dine investeringer. Dollarens status som global reservevaluta er nemlig under pres. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":68503,"featured_media":72039,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1288],"tags":[2310],"class_list":["post-72038","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markedet","tag-tophistorier"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/09\/1200x430-dollar-150x53.png","width":150,"height":53,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/09\/1200x430-dollar-150x53.png 150w, 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