{"id":72220,"date":"2025-09-29T09:32:36","date_gmt":"2025-09-29T07:32:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/?p=72220"},"modified":"2025-09-29T15:01:07","modified_gmt":"2025-09-29T13:01:07","slug":"5-paastande-om-amerikanske-aktier-er-vi-paa-vej-mod-en-markedskorrektion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/5-paastande-om-amerikanske-aktier-er-vi-paa-vej-mod-en-markedskorrektion\/","title":{"rendered":"5 p\u00e5stande om amerikanske aktier: Er vi p\u00e5 vej mod en markedskorrektion?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Det amerikanske aktiemarked har igen-igen sat nye rekorder. Derfor s\u00e6tter vi her fokus p\u00e5 det amerikanske aktiemarked og beder investerings\u00f8konom Per Hansen, forholde sig til fem p\u00e5stande, som ligger investorerne p\u00e5 sinde.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

P\u00e5stand nummer 1: Det amerikanske aktiemarked er verdens varmeste lige nu<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Ja, det mener jeg godt man kan sige. Det amerikanske aktiemarked deler kandidatur til titlen som det varmeste aktiemarked med Kina. Gode virksomhedsnyheder bliver underst\u00f8ttet af stor likviditet og udsigten til lavere renter booster investeringslysten begge steder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investorerne har taget godt imod den normalt ustabile september-m\u00e5ned<\/a> ved at forts\u00e6tte den store risikolyst, som har kendetegnet USA-investorerne de seneste m\u00e5neder. De k\u00f8ber stadig op i amerikanske tech-aktier<\/a>, men der er ogs\u00e5 tegn p\u00e5, at de er begyndt at sprede deres investeringer ud over andre sektorer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En anden m\u00e5de at vurdere investorers risikovillighed p\u00e5 er gennem IPO-aktivitet. Nye selskaber, som bliver b\u00f8rsnoteret, viser investorernes villighed til at k\u00f8be ind i den h\u00f8jeste ende af risikoskalaen<\/a>, hvilket indikerer, at der er stor tiltro til v\u00e6ksten i det amerikanske marked. Entusiasmen kan b\u00e5de m\u00e5les i antal selskaber, som bliver b\u00f8rsnoteret og i st\u00f8rrelsen af \u201cspredningsgevinsten\u201d, som er stigningen i aktiehandlen. Den store interesse for amerikanske aktier knytter sig derfor til investorernes tiltro til, at det amerikanske marked vil forts\u00e6tte med at s\u00e6tte nye rekorder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investerings\u00f8konom Per Hansen giver svar p\u00e5 de fem p\u00e5stande om amerikanske aktier.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

P\u00e5stand nummer 2: Aktiemarkedet er lige nu drevet af hype mere end logik<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Her er mit svar; b\u00e5de og. Der er en meget betydelig hype i spil, men og logik og tal der unders\u00f8tter noget af udviklingen Ting sker ikke af sig selv, og kursstigningerne og interessen er drevet af forventninger til indtjeningsudviklingen, digitalisering, AI og ikke mindst at Federal Reserve i denne uge kom med den f\u00f8rste af en l\u00e6ngere r\u00e6kke af renteneds\u00e6ttelser. Der er alts\u00e5 mange faktorer, som er i spil samtidigt. Samtidig er der n\u00e6ppe tvivl om, at stor investeringslyst og h\u00f8j likviditet er med til at drive udviklingen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

P\u00e5stand nummer 3: Godt aktiemarked i USA smitter af p\u00e5 resten af verden<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Det er en sandhed med modifikationer – men g\u00e6lder for fx Kina. Hvis man ser p\u00e5, hvor meget eller lidt den positive udvikling i det amerikanske marked smitter af p\u00e5 Danmark, er der snarere tale om et tilvalg i USA og fravalg i Danmark.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Figur 2: Kursudvikling, OMX C25<\/a> vs Nasdaq<\/a> Composite, 16. september. Kilde: Nordnet.<\/em> Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Forholdet mellem de to indeks er dog ikke hele billedet globalt. Eksempelvis er interessen for at k\u00f8be kinesiske aktier steget dramatisk over de seneste m\u00e5neder, hvor udvalgte selskaber som Alibaba<\/a> og Baidu<\/a> er steget med t\u00e6t p\u00e5 en tredjedel. Det er bl.a. drevet af den store interesse for AI og produktionen af chips. I den henseende m\u00e5 vi erkende, at vi ikke har oplevet den samme begejstring for danske og europ\u00e6iske aktier som USA og Kina, der har fuld fart p\u00e5 lige nu. Det er alts\u00e5 ikke hele verden, der har nydt godt af v\u00e6ksten i det amerikanske marked, slutter Per Hansen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Figur 3: Kursudviklingen i Alibaba og Baidu. Kilde: Nordnet.<\/em> Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

P\u00e5stand nummer 4: USA\u2019s aktiemarked er overophedet<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

P\u00e5 en skala hvor 0 er iskold, og 10 er overophedet, vil jeg mene vi er omkring 8 lige nu. M\u00e5lt i forhold til de mest benyttede stemningsbarometre som VIX-indekset eller Fear and Greed er der ikke \u201coveroptimisme*\u201d at spore. Niveau og udviklingen i disse fremg\u00e5r af henholdsvis figur 4 og 5. Den st\u00f8rste private interesse er i selskaber, som er lidt mindre end Magnificent 7, s\u00e5 p\u00e5 nuv\u00e6rende tidspunkt tyder det ikke p\u00e5, at markedet er totalt overophedet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Figur 4: Fear and greed Kilde:<\/em> CNN Business<\/a> (26. september)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hvad er Fear and Greed?<\/strong> Fear Fear and Greed er et indeks, der giver en indikation om, hvilken adf\u00e6rd der driver aktiehandlen. Hvis vi oplever \u201cExtreme Fear”, er der meget frygt for den fremtidige v\u00e6kst i markedet; derfor vil mange investorer s\u00e6lge ud af deres aktier i panik og kurserne i markedet vil typisk falde. I den anden ende af skalaen er \u201cExtreme Greed\u201d, der indikerer en st\u00e6rk tro p\u00e5, at markedet vil g\u00e5 fremad. Skalaen for Fear and Greed g\u00e5r fra 1-100, jo t\u00e6ttere vi er p\u00e5 100, desto mere panik vil der v\u00e6re blandt investorerne.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Figur 5: Udviklingen i VIX-indekset.<\/em> Kilde: Yahoo Finance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hvad er VIX-indekset?<\/strong> VIX-indekset er en indikator for, hvor volatilt markedet er. Hvis VIX-indekset er lavt, vil aktiekurserne typisk v\u00e6re stabile, hvor en h\u00f8j v\u00e6rdi indikerer, at markedet kan opleve store udsving i aktiekurserne og dermed v\u00e6re mere volatilt (skr\u00f8beligt).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

P\u00e5stand nummer 5: Vi st\u00e5r foran en markedskorrektion<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Korrektioner kan b\u00e5de komme uventet og ubelejligt. Ingen ved med sikkerhed, hvorn\u00e5r markedet korrigerer sig selv, men det er ikke sv\u00e6rt at forestille sig, at der kommer fx en 10% korrektion. September-m\u00e5ned er normalt en udfordrende m\u00e5ned at v\u00e6re investor i. Hvis der skal komme en st\u00f8rre afk\u00f8ling, skal der v\u00e6re en udl\u00f8sende faktor. Det er nok mere sandsynligt, at der kommer til at mangle ekstra kursm\u00e6ssig br\u00e6ndstof end at der kommer et kursblitz, som vi s\u00e5 i april, da Donald Trump holdt sin \u201cbefrielsesdag\u201d. En skarp kursbev\u00e6gelse nedad sker normalt ikke, n\u00e5r VIX og Fear-and-Greed-indikatorerne ligger lavt, som vist i figur 4 og 5. Der er derfor st\u00f8rre sandsynlighed for, at markedet bev\u00e6ger sig sidel\u00e6ns end nedad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ovenst\u00e5ende er ikke en anbefaling til at k\u00f8be eller s\u00e6lge v\u00e6rdipapirer. Dette blogindl\u00e6g er udarbejdet til informationsform\u00e5l. Blogindl\u00e6gget udg\u00f8r s\u00e5ledes ikke investeringsm\u00e6ssig eller anden r\u00e5dgivning. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast. Finansielle instrumenter kan b\u00e5de stige og falde i v\u00e6rdi. Der er en risiko for, at du ikke f\u00e5r de investerede penge tilbage<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Det amerikanske aktiemarked har igen-igen sat nye rekorder i 2025. Men kan markedet forts\u00e6tte med at stige, eller har vi noget toppen? investerings\u00f8konom Per Hansen giver sit bud her.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40017,"featured_media":72286,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1288],"tags":[2310],"class_list":["post-72220","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markedet","tag-tophistorier"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/09\/1200x430-wall-street-150x54.png","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/09\/1200x430-wall-street-150x54.png 150w, 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