{"id":73390,"date":"2025-11-07T08:28:18","date_gmt":"2025-11-07T07:28:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/?p=73390"},"modified":"2026-03-11T15:21:20","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T14:21:20","slug":"bavarian-nordic-som-en-ludobrik","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/bavarian-nordic-som-en-ludobrik\/","title":{"rendered":"Bavarian Nordic: Som en ludobrik, der er sl\u00e5et hjem"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Processen, som blev initieret af bestyrelsen for at f\u00e5 afsat Bavarian Nordic<\/a> til en ny k\u00f8ber, kulminerede med et “nej tak” fra investorerne til tilbuddet om at s\u00e6lge til 250 DKK per styk. Nu starter hverdagen igen for investorerne.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bestyrelsen initierer salgsproces<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I l\u00f8bet af 2025 initierede bestyrelsen i Bavarian Nordic en s\u00f8geproces efter nye ejere til hele selskabet. De fleste investorer blev overraskede over at f\u00e5 den information i juli. Det g\u00e6lder ogs\u00e5 mig.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mange positive b\u00f8rsmeddelelser<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jeg har over tid l\u00e6st mange b\u00f8rsmeddelelser fra Bavarian Nordic. Ordlyden har l\u00f8bende v\u00e6ret positiv og fortr\u00f8stningsfuld med hensyn til fremtiden. Derfor kom det overraskende, at bestyrelsen havde indledt en proces med at afs\u00f8ge markedet for en k\u00f8ber \u2014 og s\u00e5 m\u00e5ske alligevel ikke.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Uforl\u00f8st potentiale<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hvis man alene fokuserer p\u00e5 aktiekursudviklingen de seneste 10 \u00e5r, har det v\u00e6ret en \u00f8rkenvandring. Aktien l\u00e5 i denne uge p\u00e5 samme niveau, som den gjorde for 10 \u00e5r siden. Da der ikke har v\u00e6ret udbetalt l\u00f8bende udbytte<\/a>, er det let at beregne afkastet til omtrent 0. V\u00e6rdiskabelsen mangler. Da bestyrelsen initierede en salgsproces, kan man ikke tolke det meget anderledes, end at de har kapituleret, givet op og ikke l\u00e6ngere tror p\u00e5, at de sammen med direktionen kan v\u00e6rdiskabe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bud p\u00e5 233<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I slutningen af juli bekr\u00e6ftede kapitalfonde, at de havde til hensigt at tilbyde investorerne i Bavarian Nordic 233 DKK pr. aktie. Det var ogs\u00e5 omtrent den kurs, som aktien var steget til forud for den spekulation, der startede, da interessen blev bekr\u00e6ftet, uden at der var sat tal p\u00e5 den.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Buddet h\u00e6ves<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Da den f\u00f8rste deadline var passeret, havde kun 25 % accepteret tilbuddet. Dette var et chokerende lavt tal, som viste den meget store modstand mod buddet. Resultatet viser, hvad der kan g\u00e5 galt, hvis man ikke er tilstr\u00e6kkeligt velforberedt og klar over, hvilken proces der er sat i gang.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ATP mangler<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Is\u00e6r 10-procentsaktion\u00e6ren ATP\u2019s holdning var med til at g\u00f8re udslaget. Mindre end \u00e9n time efter at tilbuddet var kommet, var deres holdning klar og fremlagt. De mente, at buddet var for lavt, og at timingen var forkert. At kapitalfondene ikke havde sikret sig ATP\u2019s opbakning, var en klar fejl. Dette var ikke den eneste udfordring, men det var medvirkende.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fort\u00e6llingen om potentialet er som et H. C. Andersen eventyr<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Der har v\u00e6ret en helt speciel aura omkring Bavarian Nordic i mange \u00e5r. Fort\u00e6llingen om, hvad selskabet kunne g\u00f8re for investorerne, er to tredjedele af et Kinder\u00e6g. Kombinationen af at g\u00f8re noget for folkesundheden og tjene penge p\u00e5 det mangler kun den tredje Kinder\u00e6g-ingrediens: overraskelsen. Den har desv\u00e6rre v\u00e6ret overraskende negativ.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

H\u00e5bet lever<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investorerne har pr\u00f8vet flere gange, men er hver gang blevet skuffede. Is\u00e6r tre h\u00e6ndelser st\u00e5r tilbage i klar erindring de seneste 10 \u00e5r: at Prostvac fejlede, og at aktiekursen blev halveret; at h\u00e5bet om en indbringende covid-19-vaccine ikke blev indfriet, og at Mpox-mulighederne kursm\u00e6ssigt forblev en spekulativ h\u00e6ndelse, hvor aktiekursen igen vendte tilbage til virkeligheden. Kursudviklingen over 10 \u00e5r fremg\u00e5r af figur 1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investorerne v\u00e6grer sig<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Selv om der har v\u00e6ret stigende tilslutning til det forh\u00f8jede kursustilbud, endte blot 60 % af investorerne med at takke ja til handlen. Det viser den \u201cfolkelige\u201d modstand, selv om der blev brugt mange ressourcer p\u00e5 det.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Handlen falder<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I g\u00e5r den 6\/11 meddelte Innosera (kapitalfonde bag buddet), at tilbuddet blev trukket tilbage, da minimumsniveauet p\u00e5 67 % accept ikke blev n\u00e5et. Tilslutningen n\u00e5ede 60 %.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det naturlige og forventelige kursfald<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Efter at tilbuddet blev trukket tilbage, faldt aktien ogs\u00e5 tilbage. Det er helt naturligt. Aktien er som en anden ludobrik sl\u00e5et tilbage til start og begyndelsen, og investorerne st\u00e5r tilbage med de samme muligheder og udfordringer, som de gjorde f\u00f8r spekulation om bud og selve buddet i juli.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hvem s\u00e6lger?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kursfaldet er ikke kun naturligt, fordi aktien sendes tilbage til start. Det er ogs\u00e5 naturligt, fordi der formentlig jf. Artikler har v\u00e6re spekuleret i en forskel mellem tilbudsprisen p\u00e5 250 og den markedskurs, som l\u00f8bende har v\u00e6ret p\u00e5 5-7 %. Disse \u201carbitrage\u201d investorer solgte formentlig ud i g\u00e5r, og de vil forts\u00e6tte med at g\u00f8re det, indtil deres position er 0. Det skyldes ganske enkelt, at de har investeret i \u201ch\u00e6ndelsen\u201d. De er ikke Bavarian Nordic investorer, og derfor tager de tabet og drager videre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ingen s\u00e6lger til 250<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alle de som accepterede kurs 250 og \u00f8nskede at s\u00e6lge st\u00e5r tilbage med Sorteper. Ingen f\u00e5r solgt deres aktier<\/a> til kurs 250, og blot dem, som solgte til den forh\u00f8jede markedskurs, som blev resultatet af buddet, har deres p\u00e5 det t\u00f8rre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dialogkaffe i december<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bavarian Nordic har indkaldt til dialogm\u00f8de i december, hvor man vil fors\u00f8ge at komme godt videre for at skabe den v\u00e6kst og v\u00e6rdiskabelse, som ikke har v\u00e6ret mulig i de seneste 10 \u00e5r. Hver gang aktien er steget, har det ikke v\u00e6ret p\u00e5 grund af selskabspr\u00e6sentationer, men fordi investorerne har v\u00e6ret spekulativt overivrige.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tilbage til samme \u201choldopstilling\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investorerne er sendt tilbage til udgangspunktet. I n\u00e6ste uge kommer kvartalsregnskabet, i december m\u00e5ned kommer dialogm\u00f8det og s\u00e5 bliver det igen hverdag for selskabet og investorerne.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Figur 1: Kursudvikling, Bavarian Nordic, 10 \u00e5r<\/em>. Kilde: Nordnet<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ovenst\u00e5ende er ikke en anbefaling til at k\u00f8be eller s\u00e6lge v\u00e6rdipapirer<\/em>.\u00a0Dette blogindl\u00e6g er udarbejdet til informationsform\u00e5l. Blogindl\u00e6gget udg\u00f8r s\u00e5ledes ikke investeringsm\u00e6ssig eller anden r\u00e5dgivning. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast. Finansielle instrumenter kan b\u00e5de stige og falde i v\u00e6rdi. Der er en risiko for, at du ikke f\u00e5r de investerede penge tilbage.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Processen, som blev initieret af bestyrelsen for at f\u00e5 afsat Bavarian Nordic til en ny k\u00f8ber, kulminerede med et “nej tak” fra investorerne til tilbuddet. Per Hansen gennemg\u00e5r hvad der er sket. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40015,"featured_media":55530,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1288],"tags":[1612,2310],"class_list":["post-73390","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markedet","tag-persunivers","tag-tophistorier"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2023\/11\/Per_rodeblade_1200x430-150x54.png","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2023\/11\/Per_rodeblade_1200x430-150x54.png 150w, 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