{"id":75459,"date":"2026-01-18T17:07:46","date_gmt":"2026-01-18T16:07:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/?p=75459"},"modified":"2026-01-19T08:46:55","modified_gmt":"2026-01-19T07:46:55","slug":"novo-nordisk-stor-stigning-stor-handel-stigende-momentum-og-toldeffekten","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/novo-nordisk-stor-stigning-stor-handel-stigende-momentum-og-toldeffekten\/","title":{"rendered":"Novo Nordisk: Stor stigning, stor handel, stigende momentum og toldeffekten?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Novo Nordisk<\/a> byggede i USA videre p\u00e5 fredagens stigning i den danske notering og sluttede omregnet i kurs 404 i eftermarkedet. Hvad siger det kort- og langsigtet om mulighederne for Novo Nordisk, og vil Donald Trumps nye told direkte eller indirekte (risikopr\u00e6mie) kunne \u00e6ndre ved den opfattelse?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fredagens stigning har flere f\u00e6dre<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Fredag steg Novo Nordisk i Danmark med 6,49% og sluttede i kurs 388,90. Der var lidt forvirring om, hvad der drev den stigning. I min optik er der to drivere: En mindre faktor og den reelt udslagsgivende faktor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UK-godkendelse<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Den mindre faktor var godkendelse i UK af 7,2 mg h\u00f8jdosis af Wegovy-injektionen. Den kan doseres som 3 injektioner af 2,4 mg, som i studier har for\u00f8get v\u00e6gttabet fra ca. 15 % til ca. 20 % over tid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Recepttal fra USA g\u00f8r udslaget<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Den udslagsgivende faktor var recepttal fra den f\u00f8rste uge, hvor Wegovy har v\u00e6ret p\u00e5 markedet fra Symphony Health Solutions – lanceringen var 5. januar 2026. Her viste data en rigtig god start og blev opfattet som rigtig gode, fordi mere end 4.000 nye patienter kun er data fra en enkelt salgskanal og ikke fra eksempelvis Novo Nordisks egen. Alt i alt er det samlede tal formentlig langt st\u00f8re med en faktor 2-3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Derfor er kursstigningen \u201cnaturlig\u201d<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Kursstigningen er naturlig. Forventningerne til lanceringen har v\u00e6ret store hos investorerne, men drevet af en meget negativ nyhedsstr\u00f8m hos analytikere, som forl\u00e6ngede 2024-2025 nedturen med en lineal, har investorerne ikke turdet k\u00f8be ind p\u00e5, at tallene ville blive gode. Det, som flytter aktiekurser<\/a>, er ikke alene forventinger, men om investorerne investerer efter dem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tal fra USA bliver \u201cgearet\u201d<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

I USA bliver alt vendt, drejet, kvantificeret og ekstrapoleret. Et godt tal for en uge f\u00e5r en ekstrem multiplikatoreffekt, n\u00e5r den effekt bliver \u201cgearet\u201d (kun begyndelse) og annualiseret (52 uger).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wegovy-pille eller ingenting<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Samtidig er kursbev\u00e6gelsen for mig lidt overraskende. Novo Nordisk er tilstede i mere end 70.000 \u201csalgskanaler\u201d (apoteker). Pillen har bedre v\u00e6gttabsdata end Eli Lilly; behovet for v\u00e6gttab er stort, og der g\u00e5r ca. 3 m\u00e5neder, efter planen, se nedenfor, f\u00f8r der kommer endnu et produkt p\u00e5 markedet. I den anden retning tr\u00e6kker, siger Eli Lilly, at det er en stor ulempe, at pillen skal tages p\u00e5 tom mave. Det kan blive en udfordring p\u00e5 sigt, men ikke nu, hvor det er Novo Nordisk eller ingenting, for dem som gerne vil i gang nu. Derfor er et st\u00f8rre recepttal alt i alt, efter min mening, mindre overraskende og mere, som forventet.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det polariserede aktiemarked<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Aktiemarkedet har aldrig v\u00e6ret s\u00e5 polariseret som i dag. Investorerne k\u00f8ber den aktie i dag, som de forventer stiger i morgen; ellers ikke. Omvendt s\u00e6lger de den aktie i dag, som de frygter falder i morgen. Investorerne ser, om der kommer et kortsigtet momentum. Det forst\u00e6rker udviklingen. M\u00e5ske er der kommet momentum i aktien de seneste uger, og medfarten i Danmark fredag blev yderligere forst\u00e6rket i USA, fredag.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eli Lillys pille bliver let forsinket<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Nogle peger p\u00e5, at det ogs\u00e5 spiller en rolle, at Eli Lilly kommer lidt senere p\u00e5 markedet, end hvad der var opfattelsen for blot uger siden. Det kan have spillet en rolle, men g\u00f8r n\u00e6ppe hele udslaget og kan ikke forklare den st\u00f8rre stigning. M\u00e5ske kommer godkendelsen 1 m\u00e5ned senere end forventet, men det er ogs\u00e5 det.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

FDA godkender den 10\/4<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Det er nu forventningen, at FDA tr\u00e6ffer sin beslutning om Eli Lillys Orgliprofon den 10\/4. Pillen vil umiddelbart derefter (formentlig dage\/uger) v\u00e6re tilg\u00e6ngelig bredt. Der gik 13 dage fra Novo Nordisk fik sin godkendelse, til pillen var til stede i hele landet, og her var der tilmed tale om, at der ogs\u00e5 var helligdage med i spillet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

FDA godkender da pillen, g\u00f8r de ikke?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Hvad sker der, hvis det ut\u00e6nkelige sker? At Eli Lilly af en eller anden grund ikke f\u00e5r den markedsf\u00f8ringstilladelse den 10\/4, som alle regner med? Det vil i s\u00e5 fald v\u00e6re deres \u201csorte svane\u201d. Den ekstremt lille sandsynlighed med den meget store betydning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

20 % kursreaktion hos Eli Lilly og Novo Nordisk i hver sin retning<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

N\u00e5r FDA tr\u00e6ffer deres afg\u00f8relser og i givet fald vender tommelfingeren nedad, sender de et CRL (Complete Respons Letter). Det betyder, at der er brug for flere data eller noget, som ans\u00f8geren skal rette op p\u00e5. I de tilf\u00e6lde g\u00e5r der 6-12 m\u00e5neder f\u00f8r en genans\u00f8gning bliver vurderet\/godkendt. I et s\u00e5dant tilf\u00e6lde vil Eli Lillys aktiekurs kunne t\u00e6nkes at falde \u201cdramatisk\u201d, fordi v\u00e6kstbilledet er bygget op om, at tilladelsen bliver givet uden bem\u00e6rkninger. Et kursfald p\u00e5 20 % med en tilsvarende stigning hos Novo Nordisk lyder af ekstremt meget, men er meget realistisk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At det skulle komme til en s\u00e5dan konklusion er meget urealistisk. For FDA kommer til at godkende. B\u00e5de fordi Eli Lilly har styr p\u00e5 processerne, og fordi presset p\u00e5 FDA for at godkende, n\u00e6sten uanset, er ekstremt. Den kombination \u201csikrer\u201d en godkendelse, hvis der skulle v\u00e6re komplikationer, som der ikke er.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Derfor stiger Novo Nordisk s\u00e5 meget<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Der er en r\u00e6kke mulige \u00e5rsager til, at Novo Nordisk er steget s\u00e5 meget, som tilf\u00e6ldet er:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • Aktien og forventningerne til aktien er\/var sendt i kulk\u00e6lderen.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Analytikere, is\u00e6r udenlandske, har turneret med narrativet om, at Novo Nordisk er g\u00e5et fra at v\u00e6re markedsleder med \u2154 af v\u00e6gttabsmarkedet i 2024 til en forventet markedsandel i 2030 p\u00e5 20 % eller mindre. En polariseret udvikling.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Investorerne er p\u00e5 vej til at k\u00f8be ind p\u00e5 en forventet god udvikling, efter at momentum investorerne ikke kun t\u00f8mte deres aktielommer p\u00e5 vej ned, men m\u00e5ske ogs\u00e5 har solgt sig kort.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Fredagens USA-volumen, som var meget h\u00f8j og 2X, 3 m\u00e5neders gennemsnit, indikerer stor momentumaktivitet.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Er investorerne p\u00e5 vej til at k\u00f8be ind p\u00e5, at Novo Nordisk kommer til at levere en guidance for 2026, som i hvert fald ikke kommer til at skuffe – se figur 1 for udviklingen i indtjeningsforventningerne.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Prisfasts\u00e6ttelsen er, set i en historisk kontekst, lav, j\u00e6vnf\u00f8r figur 2.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    Den danske dummeb\u00f8de<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Hvad betyder weekendens beslutning fra Donald Trump om at true med yderligere 10 % told stigende til 25 %, hvis ikke Danmark\/Gr\u00f8nland lader sig afpresse til at s\u00e6lge Gr\u00f8nland til USA. Tjah. Der er flere muligheder og risici:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    • \u00d8konomisk betyder det formentlig n\u00e6rmest ingenting for Novo Nordisk specifikt. Hovedparten, hvis ikke hele afs\u00e6tningen til det amerikanske marked, bliver produceret i USA. Med mindre der kommer en ekstra \u201cdummeb\u00f8de\u201d p\u00e5 Danmark og danske produkter, uanset \u201cmade in the US\u201d, s\u00e5 betyder det direkte, sandsynligvis mindre.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Risikopr\u00e6miem\u00e6ssigt kan det naturligvis betyde noget. Hvordan investorerne reagerer p\u00e5 truslen\/truslerne i bred forstand, afh\u00e6nger i h\u00f8j grad af udviklingen de kommende dage, som ingen, i en meget uforudsigelig verden, kan h\u00e6vde de kender. Alt i alt vil bev\u00e6gelsen i Novo Nordisk formentlig v\u00e6re \u201cmindre end st\u00f8rre\u201d, men risikopr\u00e6mien er en meget sv\u00e6r st\u00f8rrelse forventningsm\u00e6ssigt at forudsige og t\u00e6mme. Hvis kurseffekten p\u00e5 grund af \u00f8konomien (ingen ekstra told p\u00e5 grund af USA produktion) bliver mindre, vil momentum investorerne formentlig drive aktien h\u00f8jere, men meget er i spil.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

      <\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Figur 1: Udvikling i indtjeningsforventninger, Novo Nordisk<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
      \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

      Kilde: Marketscreener.com<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      <\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Figur 2: Historisk prisfasts\u00e6ttelse, Novo Nordisk<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
      \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

      Kilde: Marketscreener.com<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      <\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Figur 3: Kursudvkling, Novo Nordisk, 3 \u00e5r<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
      \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

      Kilde: nordnet.dk 18. januar 2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      <\/p>\n\n\n\n

      <\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Ovenst\u00e5ende er ikke en anbefaling til at k\u00f8be eller s\u00e6lge v\u00e6rdipapirer<\/em>. Dette blogindl\u00e6g er udarbejdet til informationsform\u00e5l. Blogindl\u00e6gget udg\u00f8r s\u00e5ledes ikke investeringsm\u00e6ssig eller anden r\u00e5dgivning. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast. Finansielle instrumenter kan b\u00e5de stige og falde i v\u00e6rdi. Der er en risiko for, at du ikke f\u00e5r de investerede penge tilbage.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Hvorfor stiger Novo s\u00e5 meget nu, og hvad betyder Trumps “dummeb\u00f8de” til Danmark for Novo Nordisk-aktien? Per Hansen kigger p\u00e5 den aktuelle situation med Wegovy-pillen, konkurrenten Eli Lily med mere.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40015,"featured_media":68808,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1291],"tags":[1612,2310],"class_list":["post-75459","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-persunivers","tag-tophistorier"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/08\/220512_Nordnet_Per_1200x430-150x54.png","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/08\/220512_Nordnet_Per_1200x430-150x54.png 150w, 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