{"id":76258,"date":"2026-02-23T10:51:54","date_gmt":"2026-02-23T09:51:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/?p=76258"},"modified":"2026-02-27T12:30:31","modified_gmt":"2026-02-27T11:30:31","slug":"er-kursfesten-slut-for-software-aktierne","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/er-kursfesten-slut-for-software-aktierne\/","title":{"rendered":"Er kursfesten slut for software-aktierne?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Software-aktier<\/a> har haft det meget sv\u00e6rt i 2026 med betydelige kursfald. Det skyldes f\u00f8rst og fremmest frygt for n\u00e6ste AI-b\u00f8lge og konsekvenserne for softwareselskaberne.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To \u00e5r med universelle AI-stigninger<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Perioden fra april 2023 og 2,5 \u00e5r frem var meget profitable for AI-investorerne. Temaet var at AI-udbygningen ville \u00f8ge markedet dramatisk. Mange aktier steg rigtig meget; inklusive software-aktier, som det fremg\u00e5r af nedenst\u00e5ende graf for tre software-aktier (Microsoft<\/a>, Salesforce, SAP).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2026 er anderledes<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

2026 ser noget anderledes ud end de foreg\u00e5ende \u00e5r. AI er stadig et meget varmt tema, men det har ikke v\u00e6ret en universel kursdriver. Der er stadig en forholdsvis positiv investorholdning for chipindustrien som Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, omend den tidligere har v\u00e6ret bedre og kraftigere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Helt anderledes ser det ud for software-aktier. De er faldet p\u00e5 frygten for at AI i l\u00f8bet af en kortere periode vil \u00e6ndre deres forretningsmodel:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kursudvikling 23. februar. i Blue Owl Capital, Microsoft, Salesforce, SAP, 3 \u00e5r. Kilde: Nordnet. Historiske afkast er ikke garanti for fremtidige afkast.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I grafen har jeg illustreret kursudviklingen for st\u00f8rre softwareselskaber. Hvis jeg havde inkluderet mindre selskaber, ville kursudviklingen have v\u00e6ret langt mere markant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Blue Owl<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Blue Owl er blevet interessant som \u201cbarometer\u201d, fordi selskabet investerer i alternativer og er med til at finansiere softwareselskabers driftskapital. Ikke for de st\u00f8rste, men for mindre selskaber.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Er Blue Owl et faresignal?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Blue Owl er b\u00f8rsnoteret og kursudviklingen fremg\u00e5r ogs\u00e5 af figur 1. Over de seneste uger er kursen faldet markant. Det ses af investorerne som et klart risikosignal, og risikoen for at det kan v\u00e6re \u201ckanarifuglen i kulminen\u201d. Hvis den holder op med at tr\u00e6kke vejret, er det p\u00e5 grund af iltmangel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fryser kapitalen<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Der har v\u00e6ret forlydender om, at Blue Owl ikke ville have mulighed for at lade investorerne tr\u00e6kke penge ud af fonden. Blue Owl fungerer lidt som en investeringsforening. Hvis investorerne \u00f8nsker at bytte beviser for penge, kr\u00e6ver det, at Blue Owl kan s\u00e6lge de underliggende papirer. Hvis det ikke er muligt, kan det skyldes, at markedet \u201cfryser til\u201d. Det kan v\u00e6re en forl\u00f8ber for en krise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Blue Owl har afvist, at det ikke er muligt at tr\u00e6kke penge ud af fonden. Alligevel har det netop fremlagte regnskab ikke beroliget investorerne, og aktien er derfor faldet yderligere. Hvis Blue Owl kan fastholde den nuv\u00e6rende udbytteudlodning, svarer aktiekursen til t\u00e6t p\u00e5 9% i direkte afkast. Det er et h\u00f8jt niveau.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Husker investorerne Silicon Valley Bank?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

I 2023 blev Sillicon Valley Bank billedet p\u00e5 krisen i Sillicon Valley. Mange opstartsvirksomheder havde en del af deres ekspansionskapital anbragt her, og nedturen gav rystelser. Zealand Pharma<\/a> havde i 2023 et betydeligt kontant indest\u00e5ende i banken. De fik dog alle deres penge tilbage. H\u00e6ndelsen var dog en risikop\u00e5mindelse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Er AI-disruption turen nu kommet til softwareselskaberne? Det mener investorerne i det mindste er en st\u00f8rre risiko. Aktiemarkedet har ikke altid ret, men de har altid en holdning og retning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Blue Owl er som VIX\/Fear and Greed<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Udviklingen i Blue Owl er lidt som software-industriens egen VIX-indeks eller Fear and Greed. Hold \u00f8je med den, fordi det er her, hvor investorernes fokus er aktuelt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ovenst\u00e5ende er ikke en anbefaling til at k\u00f8be eller s\u00e6lge v\u00e6rdipapirer<\/em>.Dette blogindl\u00e6g er udarbejdet til informationsform\u00e5l. Blogindl\u00e6gget udg\u00f8r s\u00e5ledes ikke investeringsm\u00e6ssig eller anden r\u00e5dgivning. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast. Finansielle instrumenter kan b\u00e5de stige og falde i v\u00e6rdi. Der er en risiko for, at du ikke f\u00e5r de investerede penge tilbage.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Software-aktier presses i 2026, og investorerne frygter det v\u00e6rste. Efter flere \u00e5rs AI-eufori er tvivlen rykket ind, og selv solide navne m\u00e6rker modvinden. Er AI ved at vende op og ned p\u00e5 forretningsmodellerne?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40015,"featured_media":76263,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1288],"tags":[1612,2310],"class_list":["post-76258","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markedet","tag-persunivers","tag-tophistorier"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/02\/1200x430-soft-150x54.png","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/02\/1200x430-soft-150x54.png 150w, 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