{"id":76335,"date":"2026-02-25T09:45:52","date_gmt":"2026-02-25T08:45:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/?p=76335"},"modified":"2026-02-25T09:45:53","modified_gmt":"2026-02-25T08:45:53","slug":"novo-nordisk-har-mistet-markedskontakten","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/novo-nordisk-har-mistet-markedskontakten\/","title":{"rendered":"Novo Nordisk har mistet markedskontakten"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

De fleste kender fort\u00e6llingen om katten med de ni liv. Der er l\u00f8bende et nyt liv at tage fat p\u00e5, indtil der pludselig ikke er flere. Analogien passer desv\u00e6rre meget godt p\u00e5 Novo Nordisk<\/a>, der ser ud til at have opbrugt sit sidste liv og mistet kontakten til markedet. Det har v\u00e6ret dyrt for alle \u2013 ikke mindst for investorerne.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tre foruds\u00e6tninger for et Novo Nordisk-comeback i 2026<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Ved indgangen til 2026 havde jeg tre ting i mine noter, som skulle g\u00f8re \u00e5ret markant bedre end det foreg\u00e5ende for investorerne i danske aktier<\/a>. En del var centreret om Novo Nordisk, fordi selskabet fylder s\u00e5 meget i Danmark, og fordi det er de udenlandske investorers indgangsvinkel til andre danske aktier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

FDA-godkendelse og aktietilbagek\u00f8b<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

For det f\u00f8rste skulle \u201cWegovy-pillen\u201d godkendes af FDA, og markedsf\u00f8ringen skulle begynde i starten af \u00e5ret. Det skete. For det andet skulle Novo Nordisk fravige sin historik med kun at k\u00f8be egne aktier, n\u00e5r g\u00e6lds\u00e6tningen var t\u00e6t p\u00e5 0. Det skulle de, fordi det ville signalere tillid til pipelinen og v\u00e6re langsigtet v\u00e6rdiskabende. Jeg foreslog en start p\u00e5 10 mia. Det blev 15.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2026-guidance<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Den tredje foruds\u00e6tning for et Novo Nordisk-comeback var, at guidance for 2026 ikke m\u00e5tte ligge under konsensus for at s\u00e6tte en tyk streg under, at 2025 netop var et \u00e5r, man hurtigt skulle glemme, og som ogs\u00e5 markerede et lavpunkt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det skete som bekendt ikke, desv\u00e6rre. Guidance var h\u00e5rrejsende og l\u00e5 for langt fra investorernes forventninger. Kursreaktionen udeblev naturligvis ikke, og aktien blev sendt ned i en ny nedtur p\u00e5 20%, som der har v\u00e6ret s\u00e5 mange af, at det er blevet en d\u00e5rlig vane.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aktiemarkedet har sine egne regler<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Aktiemarkedet er et spil. Hvis man vil vinde, skal man kende spillets regler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Tre regler:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. Aldrig at nedjustere og skuffe.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. L\u00f8bende at guide, s\u00e5 man undg\u00e5r negative overraskelser.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. At sikre, at realiteterne som minimum matcher forventningerne.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Jeg klandrer ikke Novo Nordisk for at sige verden, som de ser den, men forventningsstyringen har v\u00e6ret meget d\u00e5rlig. Aktiemarkedet handler om at levere det forventede og lidt mere \u2013 uden stor volatilitet, uro og st\u00f8j.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Over de seneste to \u00e5r har der v\u00e6ret alt andet end ro hos Novo Nordisk. Investorerne var forberedt p\u00e5 meget, men ikke alt. 2026-starten har v\u00e6ret trist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Men hvis to ud af tre foruds\u00e6tninger for et godt 2026 var opfyldt, svarer det jo til mere end 66% og til best\u00e5et? Nej. De to f\u00f8rste v\u00e6gtede kun lidt, lad os sige hver 15%, og den sidste, der v\u00e6gtede 70%, var klart 0. Matematikken siger ikke best\u00e5et.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Skidt udl\u00e6g, men det blev v\u00e6rre<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    \u00c5ret startede ikke godt, men det skulle blive v\u00e6rre. Denne uges Redefine 4-data viste i en sammenligning mellem CagriSema og tirzepatid, at CagriSema var underlegen, n\u00e5r det kommer til v\u00e6gttab over 84 uger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    84 uger er lang tid, og det m\u00e5 formodes, at n\u00e5r det kommer til netop tidsdimensionen, er der ikke meget mere at komme efter. Effekten i den henseende er udt\u00f8mt. M\u00e5ske kan der g\u00f8res noget ved doseringen. Det er i hvert fald det, som Novo Nordisk blandt andet kan s\u00e6tte sin lid til.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    N\u00e5r vi skal forst\u00e5, hvorfor det kan g\u00e5 s\u00e5 galt for Novo Nordisk-aktien, er der en r\u00e6kke mellemregninger, som jeg vil n\u00e6vne. Livet leves forl\u00e6ns, men forst\u00e5s bagl\u00e6ns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Ingen julegave i 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    De fleste husker kursnedsablingen den 20. december 2024. V\u00e6gttabet p\u00e5 22,7% for CagriSema var stort, men langt under det, som Novo Nordisk selv havde forventningsstyret efter: mere end 25%. Ser man p\u00e5 det fra patienternes synspunkt, virker det som en mindre afvigelse \u2013 22,7% eller 25%. Men i investorverdenen g\u00f8r 2,3 procentpoint t\u00e6t p\u00e5 100% forskel. Det er en verden, hvor tingene er polariserede, og hvor \u201cthe winner takes it all\u201d er en betydelig faktor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Var Novo Nordisk overmodige?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Vi skal dog endnu l\u00e6ngere tilbage. Til den tid, hvor head-to-head-studiet mellem CagriSema og tirzepatid\/Zepbound blev startet. Det var i 2023. Dengang var Novo Nordisk formentlig overbevist om, at de havde det gyldne v\u00e6gttab, som var andre, det vil sige Eli Lilly, overlegent. Dengang Novo Nordisk var l\u00e6ngst fremme og red p\u00e5 succesen af Wegovy-b\u00f8lgen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Eli Lilly-v\u00e6gttab overrasker<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Studiet viste omtrent det samme v\u00e6gttab, som blev annonceret den 20. december 2024 for CagriSema. Det overraskende var, at Eli Lilly var markant bedre (23% vs. 25,5%). Uanset om Novo Nordisk har underpr\u00e6steret, eller Eli Lilly har overpr\u00e6steret i forhold til studiedesignet, taler aktiekursudviklingen og investorernes reaktion deres eget tydelige sprog.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    N\u00e5r man igangs\u00e6tter et studie, kan man ikke stoppe midt i det hele, fordi man f\u00e5r kolde f\u00f8dder. M\u00e5ske er det simpelthen bare Eli Lilly, der har overpr\u00e6steret?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Tal lyver som bekendt ikke, men de kan diskuteres. Mens investorer og analytikere sender aktien yderligere ned og siger, at CagriSema nu kun har en mindre kommerciel v\u00e6rdi, bliver Novo Nordisk ved med at h\u00e6vde, at de har en st\u00e6rk pipeline, inklusive store forventninger til CagriSema.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    To forkerte studiedesigns?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Er det, fordi de to studiedesigns har haft som f\u00e6llesn\u00e6vner, at de er \u201clavet forkert\u201d? Hvis jeg skulle designe et studie, ville jeg naturligt tilrettel\u00e6gge det p\u00e5 den m\u00e5de, at det i st\u00f8rst mulig henseende var designet til de styrker, jeg selv ser i produktet, og som jeg mener er de rigtige. Gjorde Novo Nordisk det?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Mistet markedskontakten<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    De udfordringer, som startede i sensommeren 2024, blev forv\u00e6rret den 20. december 2024. 2025 blev en lang r\u00e6kke problemer med nedjusteringer, CEO-fyring, governance-diskussion og bestyrelsesfyring. 2026 skulle blive bedre, men s\u00e5 blev der smidt to h\u00e5ndgranater.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    75% g\u00f8r meget ondt<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Aktien er styrtdykket. Det er en h\u00e5rd dom, men kan ikke karakteriseres anderledes efter et fald p\u00e5 75% fra tinderne. Det lyder og er brutalt. Stort set hele v\u00e6gttabsopturen fra 2021 til 2024 p\u00e5 800 kurspoint \u2013 eller en 5x \u2013 er v\u00e6k, og v\u00e6rdien af v\u00e6gttab i markedsv\u00e6rdien er n\u00e6sten udraderet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    V\u00e6gttabspipeline og salg uden v\u00e6rdi?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Investorerne till\u00e6gger alts\u00e5 ikke Novo Nordisks fremtid inden for v\u00e6gttab nogen – eller kun en meget underordnet v\u00e6rdi. Det viser b\u00e5de aktiemarkedets luner og dets polaritet, men f\u00e5r det ogs\u00e5 til at runge, n\u00e5r Novo Nordisk h\u00e6vder, at de fortsat har en meget st\u00e6rk pipeline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Novo Nordisk har mistet markedskontakten til investorerne og tyndslidt t\u00e5lmodigheden. Det betyder, at b\u00f8rsmeddelelser bliver l\u00e6st med skepsis. Gode forskningsdata bliver negligeret. Fra heltestatus til bad standing. Katten har aktuelt ikke flere liv.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Startede nedturen i 2023 under opturen?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Det hele startede for nogle \u00e5r siden med overvurdering af egen pipeline, undervurdering af konkurrenter, fejll\u00e6sning af den amerikanske markedseftersp\u00f8rgsel, som tillod compounding, og meget andet. Forventningerne til CagriSema, som var en meget stor del af nutiden og den umiddelbare fremtid for Novo Nordisk inden for v\u00e6gttab, var ikke tilstr\u00e6kkeligt dataforankrede i en verden, hvor konkurrenterne ogs\u00e5 bev\u00e6ger sig.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Det er en udvikling, der har v\u00e6ret l\u00e6nge undervejs, og som nu skaber massive udfordringer for det, der l\u00e6nge har v\u00e6ret hele Danmarks folkeaktie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Ovenst\u00e5ende er ikke en anbefaling til at k\u00f8be eller s\u00e6lge v\u00e6rdipapirer<\/em>.Dette blogindl\u00e6g er udarbejdet til informationsform\u00e5l. Blogindl\u00e6gget udg\u00f8r s\u00e5ledes ikke investeringsm\u00e6ssig eller anden r\u00e5dgivning. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast. Finansielle instrumenter kan b\u00e5de stige og falde i v\u00e6rdi. Der er en risiko for, at du ikke f\u00e5r de investerede penge tilbage.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Hvad gik galt \u2013 og kan tilliden til Novo Nordisk genoprettes? L\u00e6s Per Hansens analyse af selskabet, hvor t\u00e5rnh\u00f8je forventninger blev til skuffelse og blev afl\u00f8st af en n\u00e5desl\u00f8s b\u00f8rsreaktion.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40015,"featured_media":76345,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1291],"tags":[1612,2310],"class_list":["post-76335","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-persunivers","tag-tophistorier"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/02\/1200x630-novo-150x54.png","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/02\/1200x630-novo-150x54.png 150w, 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