{"id":76394,"date":"2026-03-02T08:39:21","date_gmt":"2026-03-02T07:39:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/?p=76394"},"modified":"2026-03-02T15:17:18","modified_gmt":"2026-03-02T14:17:18","slug":"novo-nordisk-et-reality-check","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/novo-nordisk-et-reality-check\/","title":{"rendered":"Novo Nordisk: Et reality check"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

I sidste uge skrev jeg at Novo Nordisk \u201char mistet kontakten til investorerne\u201d. Det er en alvorlig sag, og indl\u00e6gget har ogs\u00e5 afstedkommet en del kommentarer. Aktien er faldet med 75% fra toppen og indtjeningsforventningerne er dr\u00f8net nedad.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det er altid godt med sp\u00f8rgsm\u00e5l og nysgerrighed til mine artikler. Jeg vil gerne i artiklen her f\u00f8lge op p\u00e5 det jeg skrev i sidste uge, med nogle nuanceringer og pr\u00e6ciseringer. De f\u00f8lger her:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kortsigtede investorer bestemmer retningen, kortsigtet<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Den gennemsnitlige tid, som en investor holder en aktie, har aldrig v\u00e6ret kortere, end den er nu. Det betyder, at investorer i stigende grad k\u00f8ber og s\u00e6lger aktier<\/a> p\u00e5 forventning om at aktien vil stige i morgen. Omvendt betyder det, at de i mindre grad k\u00f8ber aktierne med henblik p\u00e5 at v\u00e6re langsigtede investorer i selskabet og f\u00f8lge det gennem op- og nedture. Denne tendens betyder ogs\u00e5, at investorerne ikke s\u00e6lger en aktie i dag, fordi den er h\u00f8jt prissat, men fordi de frygter, at den falder i morgen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Novo Nordisk er lavt prissat<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Kigger vi p\u00e5 udviklingen i Novo Nordisks P\/E over de seneste \u00e5r, er aktien historisk lavt prissat. Det kan man se i figuren herunder. Her skal man huske p\u00e5, at en prisfasts\u00e6ttelse – uanset om den er h\u00f8j eller lav \u2013 ikke p\u00e5 kort sigt er nogen v\u00e6sentlig valuedriver, j\u00e6vnf\u00f8r ovenfor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Figuren viser udviklingen i prisfasts\u00e6ttelse udtrykt som price\/earnings. Kilde: Marketscreener.com<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stor forskel p\u00e5 kort og l\u00e6ngere sigt<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Der kan v\u00e6re mange forhold, som bestemmer kursen p\u00e5 en aktie. V\u00e6kst<\/em> er en meget, meget vigtig faktor. Is\u00e6r i en verden, som bliver stadig mere polariseret og amerikaniseret. Investorerne har ganske enkelt priset v\u00e6ksten ud af aktien. De forventer med andre ord ikke nogen \u2013 eller i hvert fald ikke nogen v\u00e6sentlig \u2013 indtjeningsv\u00e6kst de kommende \u00e5r. Udviklingen i indtjeningsforventningerne for 2026-2028, fremg\u00e5r af figur 1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Figuren viser \u00e6ndring i indtjeningsforventninger for 2026-2028. Kilde: Marketscreener.com, 27. februar 2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2028 forventningerne n\u00e6sten halveret<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Det seneste \u00e5r er indtjeningsforventningerne til 2028 faldet med n\u00e6sten 50 %. Det er ikke mindst det, som trykker aktien nedad. I investorernes \u00f8jne har Novo Nordisk sat f\u00f8rerskabet indenfor v\u00e6gttab over styr. Det kan \u00e6ndre sig over tid. Det som har drevet aktien ned er 1) \u00e6ndring i indtjeningsforventningerne og 2) tilliden til at Novo Nordisk kan fastholde sin v\u00e6rdiskabende f\u00f8rerposition inden for v\u00e6gttab.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stort set hele den stigning, som fra 2021-2024 medf\u00f8rte en femdobling i aktiekursen, er forsvundet. Kursudviklingen for 2021 til i dag fremg\u00e5r af figur 3. Det betyder, at investorerne ikke till\u00e6gger den v\u00e6rdi, som v\u00e6gttab skaber, noget og heller ikke er villige til at k\u00f8be ind p\u00e5 den udvikling i fremtiden. Den udvikling viser, hvor polariseret verden kan v\u00e6re.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Figuren viser kursudviklingen i Novo Nordisk B<\/a>-aktie de seneste fem \u00e5r. Kilde: nordnet.dk, 2. marts (f\u00f8r markeds\u00e5bning) 2026. Historiske afkast er ikke en garanti for fremtidige afkast.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cJamen Novo Nordisk er jo stadig store inden for diabetes – aktien m\u00e5 da v\u00e6re faldet for meget??\u201d<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAktiekursen m\u00e5 da<\/em> v\u00e6re faldet for meget\u201d er der nok mange der t\u00e6nker oven p\u00e5 kursfaldet p\u00e5 75%. Det kan meget vel v\u00e6re tilf\u00e6ldet. Det vil fremtiden vise. Hvis du som investor mener at aktien er faldet for meget, kan det v\u00e6re en god mulighed for dig at k\u00f8be flere aktier, hvis det passer til din investeringshorisont og risikoprofil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jeg h\u00e5ber, at artiklen her har adresseret nogle af de sp\u00f8rgsm\u00e5l, som Novo-investorerne sidder tilbage med.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ovenst\u00e5ende er ikke en anbefaling til at k\u00f8be eller s\u00e6lge v\u00e6rdipapirer<\/em>.Dette blogindl\u00e6g er udarbejdet til informationsform\u00e5l. Blogindl\u00e6gget udg\u00f8r s\u00e5ledes ikke investeringsm\u00e6ssig eller anden r\u00e5dgivning. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast. Finansielle instrumenter kan b\u00e5de stige og falde i v\u00e6rdi. Der er en risiko for, at du ikke f\u00e5r de investerede penge tilbage.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I sidste uge skrev jeg at Novo Nordisk \u201char mistet kontakten til investorerne\u201d. Det er en alvorlig sag, og indl\u00e6gget har ogs\u00e5 afstedkommet en del kommentarer. Aktien er faldet med 75% fra toppen og indtjeningsforventningerne er dr\u00f8net nedad. Det er altid godt med sp\u00f8rgsm\u00e5l og nysgerrighed til mine artikler. Jeg vil gerne i artiklen her […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40015,"featured_media":46412,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1291],"tags":[1612,2310],"class_list":["post-76394","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-persunivers","tag-tophistorier"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/10\/Per_Hansen_roede_blade_1200x380-1-150x48.jpg","width":150,"height":48,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/10\/Per_Hansen_roede_blade_1200x380-1-150x48.jpg 150w, 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