{"id":76738,"date":"2026-03-23T10:47:41","date_gmt":"2026-03-23T09:47:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/?p=76738"},"modified":"2026-03-26T08:58:29","modified_gmt":"2026-03-26T07:58:29","slug":"novo-nordisk-hvor-mange-gange-kan-aktien-holde-til-at-blive-halveret","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nordnet.dk\/blog\/novo-nordisk-hvor-mange-gange-kan-aktien-holde-til-at-blive-halveret\/","title":{"rendered":"Novo Nordisk: Hvad kan vi forvente af ugens generalforsamling?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

P\u00e5 torsdag m\u00f8des investorerne i Novo Nordisk<\/a> til generalforsamling for at samle op p\u00e5 \u00e5ret, der gik. Hvis den tidligere bestyrelsesformands ord lyder hule, er det helt naturligt. Det m\u00f8rkeste tidspunkt p\u00e5 d\u00f8gnet er lige f\u00f8r solopgang.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Generalforsamlingen vil formentlig godkende udlodningen p\u00e5 7,95 kr. pr. aktie. Inklusive den udlodning, som kan v\u00e6re sandsynlig i forbindelse med halv\u00e5rsregnskabet, bringer det det direkte afkast op p\u00e5 ca. 5%. Hvis man havde omtalt Novo Nordisk som en udbytteaktie<\/a> med et direkte afkast p\u00e5 5% for et par \u00e5r siden, ville de fleste med rette have trukket overb\u00e6rende p\u00e5 skuldrene.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meget lav prisfasts\u00e6ttelse er et tegn p\u00e5 kapitulation<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Set i et historisk perspektiv er prisfasts\u00e6ttelsen ikke kun lav eller meget lav \u2013 den er ekstremt lav. Historisk har prisfasts\u00e6ttelse v\u00e6ret en meget betydelig faktor, n\u00e5r man vurderer aktier. Det g\u00e6lder ikke l\u00e6ngere p\u00e5 den korte bane, og selv i et l\u00e6ngere perspektiv er det \u00e6ndret. Aktier har mistet deres v\u00e6rdianker.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Figur 1: Historisk og fremadrettet prisfasts\u00e6ttelse, Novo Nordisk.
Kilde: Marketscreener.com<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bestyrelsesformanden erkendte udfordringer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

P\u00e5 generalforsamlingen i marts 2025 fremh\u00e6vede dav\u00e6rende bestyrelsesformand Helge Lund de kompetencer og muligheder, der l\u00e5 i Novo Nordisk. Han erkendte dog ogs\u00e5, at udviklingen i aktiekursen havde slidt p\u00e5 investorernes tillid, og at ledelsen skulle levere p\u00e5 m\u00e5ls\u00e6tninger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Et \u00e5r senere er \u201dskuffende\u201d blevet til noget t\u00e6t p\u00e5 en katastrofe. Aktien er blevet halveret endnu en gang med et samlet kursfald p\u00e5 over 75% siden toppen i juni 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kursudvikling, Novo Nordisk, 1 \u00e5r. Historiske afkast er ikke garanti for fremtidige afkast.<\/em>
Kilde: Nordnet<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lars Rebien S\u00f8rensen <\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Der er kommet en ny bestyrelsesleder. Den tidligere topchef i Novo Nordisk og nuv\u00e6rende formand for Novo Nordisk Fonden tog styringen i 2025. Her initierede han et CEO-skifte og indsatte en ny bestyrelse, da der var brug for en ny start. Der var brug for en ny start. Investorerne h\u00e5bede p\u00e5, at den genstart kunne komme i l\u00f8bet af 2025. Desv\u00e6rre kom der flere og nye udfordringer op til overfladen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Problemer fra fortiden<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Det er ikke nye projekter, der skaber de nuv\u00e6rende problemer. De nyeste data er baseret p\u00e5 det som blev grundlagt for 2-3 \u00e5r siden. Hvis man vil kende fremtiden, skal man have styr p\u00e5 nutiden og v\u00e6re godt orienteret om fortiden. Det er i fortiden, problemerne er blevet grundlagt. Beh\u00f8rigt med till\u00e6g af et aktiemarked, som er blevet langt mere polariseret, mere momentumfokuseret og helt besat af v\u00e6kstforventninger her og nu end det nogensinde tidligere har v\u00e6ret.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Status p\u00e5 aktien<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Situationen er, som den er. Kursen p\u00e5 aktien er faldet m\u00e6rkbart. Indtjeningsforventningerne frem til 2028 er blevet halveret, og investorernes villighed til at k\u00f8be ind p\u00e5 en forbedret fremtid er p\u00e5 frysepunktet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Udviklingen i indtjeningsforventninger for Novo Nordisk, 2026-2028 Kilde: Marketscreener.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investorerne k\u00f8ber ikke ind p\u00e5, at Novo Nordisk ved egen kraft kan hive sig selv op ved h\u00e5rr\u00f8dderne. Hele opturen, som blev grundlagt fra 2021 og kulminerede i 2024 med \u201dv\u00e6gttabstemaet\u201d, er v\u00e6k. V\u00e6rdien af pipelinen er v\u00e6k, og investorerne t\u00e6nker, at hvis blot Novo Nordisk ikke forts\u00e6tter med at miste mere v\u00e6rdi, er det her, prisfasts\u00e6ttelsen skal v\u00e6re.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Uanset hvordan man vender og drejer situationen, ser det ekstremt dystert ud. Jeg m\u00e5 indr\u00f8mme, at jeg ikke havde fantasi til at forestille mig, hvor markante udfordringerne var \u2013 eller at ledelsen ramte s\u00e5 meget ved siden af de forskningsdata, som har skuffet. Selv om jeg har set en del.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hvad kan ledelsen g\u00f8re?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Situationen er nu engang, som den er. Hverken direktionen eller bestyrelsen kan p\u00e5 kort sigt vende udviklingen. Det skyldes, at vendingen skal komme fra enten en \u00e6ndring i indtjeningsforventningerne eller i opfattelsen af Novo Nordisk som en v\u00e6rdiskabende virksomhed. Det tager tid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pipelinetilk\u00f8b?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Samtidig med at Novo Nordisk holder fast i at de har en st\u00e6rk pipeline, n\u00e6gter investorerne at k\u00f8be ind p\u00e5 den pr\u00e6mis. Udviklingen i 2023-2024 er en udfordring, som er s\u00e5 dybt forankret hos investorerne, at de bliver ved med at sende aktien nedad.

Hvis pipelinen er utilstr\u00e6kkelig, skal man adressere det. Novo Nordisk skal ved egen kraft og data vise, at de kan meget mere, end investorerne er villige til at tro p\u00e5. Hvis de ikke kan det, skal de ud at k\u00f8be ind p\u00e5 basis af data, som har bevist, at de kan g\u00f8re en forskel (f.eks. st\u00e6rke fase 2\/3-data).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aktietilbagek\u00f8b kan skabe langsigtet v\u00e6rdi<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Novo Nordisk er i gang med sit 15 mia. kr. store aktietilbagek\u00f8bsprogram. Det er en god id\u00e9 \u2013 forudsat at den langsigtede v\u00e6rdi af selskabet, indtjeningen, pipelinen og v\u00e6kstudsigterne er noget h\u00f8jere end aktuelt. Efter en kursnedsabling p\u00e5 80 % virker det plausibelt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

…men hj\u00e6lper kun lidt p\u00e5 kort sigt<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

P\u00e5 kort sigt er aktietilbagek\u00f8bet formildende, men det kan ikke afb\u00f8de den negative stemning. Stemningsbaserede investorer k\u00f8ber og s\u00e6lger p\u00e5 f\u00f8lelser, uanset om der er gode fremtidsperspektiver eller ej. De er ligeglade med en lav prisfasts\u00e6ttelse, fordi v\u00e6rdiankeret ikke l\u00e6ngere holder skibet, men i stedet sl\u00e6ber hen langs bunden. Investorerne er aktuelt i st\u00f8rre bev\u00e6gelse end skibet (Novo Nordisk).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hvad er n\u00e6ste skridt?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Indtjeningsforventninger kan v\u00e6re en flygtig st\u00f8rrelse. Det samme g\u00e6lder for aktiekurser<\/a>. Men hvis indtjeningsudviklingen viser sig at afspejle virkeligheden i fremtiden, vil det v\u00e6re mildt sagt meget m\u00e6rkeligt, hvis ikke Novo Nordisk s\u00f8rger for at f\u00e5 hoved og krop til at passe bedre sammen. Det kunne f.eks. ske ved en personalereduktionsrunde p\u00e5 samme niveau som den, der blev gennemf\u00f8rt i efter\u00e5ret 2025. Det er ikke et skr\u00e6kscenarie, men rettidig omhu. Hvis man har gearet sin virksomhed til en indtjening, som viser sig kun at v\u00e6re det halve af forventningerne, vil en reduktion p\u00e5 lidt over 10% (ud fra et i forvejen h\u00f8jt omkostningsforbrug i forhold til Eli Lilly) v\u00e6re utilstr\u00e6kkelig.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investorerne har ikke altid ret<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Marts 2026 ligner en meget d\u00e5rlig kopi af marts 2025. Lars Rebien S\u00f8rensen st\u00e5r overfor en h\u00e5rd opgave. Novo Nordisk har slidt p\u00e5 investorernes tillid i et hidtil uset omfang, som f\u00e5r nedturen i 2016 til at ligne en krusning p\u00e5 overfladen. Aktiemarkedet er polariseret. Investorerne viser altid en retning, men de har i sagens natur ikke altid ret.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ovenst\u00e5ende er ikke en anbefaling til at k\u00f8be eller s\u00e6lge v\u00e6rdipapirer<\/em>.Dette blogindl\u00e6g er udarbejdet til informationsform\u00e5l. Blogindl\u00e6gget udg\u00f8r s\u00e5ledes ikke investeringsm\u00e6ssig eller anden r\u00e5dgivning. Historisk afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidigt afkast. Finansielle instrumenter kan b\u00e5de stige og falde i v\u00e6rdi. Der er en risiko for, at du ikke f\u00e5r de investerede penge tilbage.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

P\u00e5 torsdag m\u00f8des investorerne i Novo Nordisk til generalforsamling for at samle op p\u00e5 \u00e5ret, der gik. Det kommer oven p\u00e5 en tid med massive udfordringer, der for alvor har testet investorernes t\u00e5lmodighed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40015,"featured_media":48749,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1291],"tags":[1612,2310],"class_list":["post-76738","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-persunivers","tag-tophistorier"],"acf":[],"all_images":{"thumbnail":{"src":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/12\/Per_Hansen_ude_1200x430-150x54.jpg","width":150,"height":54,"crop":true,"srcset":"https:\/\/blog.nordnet.dk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/12\/Per_Hansen_ude_1200x430-150x54.jpg 150w, 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